Bristol Rovers manager Joey Barton has declared that the £4million plus fee Burnley paid MK Dons for Scott Twine last summer is the “starting point” for any clubs willing to discuss the prospect of signing top scorer Aaron Collins.
Barton is anticipating offers for his star man after Collins finished his first campaign in League One with 16 goals and 11 assists in 46 games - a goal involvement every 144 minutes - and was named the division’s Player of the Season.
Collins’ production, in a lower mid-table side, coupled with that accolade and the volume of scouts from different clubs that have watched him this season indicates that Rovers will receive something in terms of a credible approach, most likely to be from a Championship club.
The 25-year-old is under contract until 2025, giving the Gas protection from having to sell the Welshman in this window, as the club’s preference would obviously be to keep him for 2023/24 where, theoretically, he should continue to improve.
But, at the same time, there is an understanding that every player has a price and a significant fee would bring benefits to not only the club’s balance sheet - with Rovers having posted record losses of £3.7m for 2021/22 with no notable transfer revenue received - but also Barton’s ability to strengthen his own squad, albeit with losing his most potent attacking presence.
MK Dons eventually had to buckle last summer after Burnley’s long pursuit of Twine - coincidentally 2021/22’s League One Player of the Season - with the Clarets paying between £4m and £5m (the fee remains undisclosed) for the 23-year-old who has subsequently helped them reach the Premier League.
Referencing that, plus other deals for strikers in League One, Barton believes Rovers are in a strong enough negotiating position to ask for that sort of fee as a baseline figure for a player who could feasibly become a full international.
“Starting point? Has to be where Twine started,” Barton said. “It will be a Championship club from what I’ve heard and it’ll depend on how the seasons finish. From what I’ve heard who is circling, whether they come through with an offer or not I’m not sure. From what I have (also) heard there are a couple of teams that aren’t Championship teams next year.
“I’d look at it and Ipswich paid £1.6m for Kayden Jackson from Accrington Stanley (in 2018). He wasn’t validated in League One. I don’t know what Peterborough paid for Clarke-Harris (from Rovers in 2020). Johnno, with the greatest respect to him, doesn’t have the athletic output of Aaron.
“Aaron is more appealing because of the scope he has to improve with the international stuff and he is getting better.
“I don’t know, but I’ll imagine the starting point is where Scott Twine started from and the fact that it’s not just me but the whole of the league has said he’s the best player in the league. In a better side, he’d have scored more goals and got more assists.
“We’re in a great spot in terms of they’ll pay a premium for him. He probably won’t get capped, he’s English isn’t he Scott Twine? He won’t get capped by England unless he’s struck by a lightning bolt. Whereas Aaron in the near future could be a full international. If he signs for a bigger team than us, the likelihood is he is going to get an international cap.”
Collins has shown continual improvement in a Rovers jersey since signing on a free transfer from Forest Green Rovers in 2021. After not finding the net in his first 18 appearances, he “caught fire” - to use a Barton term - in League Two finishing what proved a promotion campaign with 16 goals and two assists.
He’s maintained that upward trajectory in League One, albeit having cooled off since the end of January, which could prove a possible red flag for interested teams, but the body of work he’s produced under Barton simply cannot be ignored, especially with the potential for further improvement.
He is far more than just a goalscorer, offering tactical versatility and although his athleticism and pace is a key part of his game, his technique and evolving football IQ means he’s not solely reliant on any physical attributes, therefore for coaches higher up the pyramid, his ceiling is still to be reached.
“We took Aaron as a project, really,” Barton added. “He was a talented boy in League Two and a little bit lightweight. A little bit not. the smartest at where he needs to make his runs and where he can be effective. We had to teach him where the goal is and where moments take place. He’s a better finisher Aaron, when he’s away from goal, because he’s got long-range power. We’re saying those long-range goals count exactly the same as a tap-in and you need to add 15 of them to get a 30-goal season.
“I think Aaron has worked really hard and in those moments, I still think he’s got work to do. And somebody is going to get the benefit of that. He is coming into his prime now and unfortunately, we’re not a charity. They need to pay correctly if these clubs want him.
“I’m imagining there will be a deal to be struck. (But) Wael certainly doesn’t need the money. We’re in a good position from that, we’ve got him contractually secure.
“He’s a great lad and if the price is right it’s going to be tough for us, but I’m hoping no one meets his asking price and Aaron comes back. That’s 30 goal involvements next year that I don’t need to find in the summer.”
The 2022/23 regular season has barely been completed, with the play-offs still to kick-off, and there are several months ahead of such talk, but the worst-case scenario for Rovers would be for any interest in Collins to drag out deep into the window, leaving their pre-season preparation uncertain and hampering Barton’s ability to reinvest in his squad.
That is, unfortunately, taken out of Rovers’ hands to an extent because while they can admirably play hardball over Collins, ultimately money will talk - at whatever stage of the summer. As to which clubs are willing and able to pay such a high fee for an individual player, it doesn't appear a particularly wide field, at least not in the Championship.
Burnley’s purchase of Twine was aided largely by the sheer volume of transfer fees they generated from their own sales following relegation from the Premier League, and the bulk of the business in the second tier last summer was largely through free transfers and loans, with some notable exceptions.
Outside of Twine in terms of signings of attacking players, Watford rather surprisingly paid £5m for striker Vakoun Bayo to send him out on loan in January, Luton Town spent around £2m to sign Carlton Morris from Barnsley, Middlesbrough invested £2.5m+ fees in Marcus Forss and Matthew Hoppe, Millwall £2m for Zian Flemming, and had a £2.3m figure agreed for Hibernian’s Kevin Nisbet in January only for the deal to collapse.
That being said, in a league of such parity in terms of quality across the majority of the teams, a talent of Collins’ calibre could be the difference between a play-off or promotion challenge and mid-table. But post-pandemic, £4m+ is a lot of money for any Championship club to spend on an individual player, outside of those in receipt of parachute payments.
Whatever happens, Barton appears confident that Rovers are in a position to maximise the situation to their benefit and should they start next season without their talismanic No10, they are in position to find a similar gem lurking elsewhere in the EFL or beyond.
“If someone comes along and offers him double or triple money, and offers him a significant lot on a free transfer from Forest Green, then unfortunately this is business and we’ve got to do the right thing by the business side of it,” he said.
“We’ll find someone else who will be even better than Aaron or as good as he’s been. I was speaking to Andy Cole - and you think you’re brilliant as a player - and he said, ‘Joe, it’s ships in the night, mate’. As one sails out someone else sails in and sometimes that ship is better and they’ve got better cargo.
“Aaron is a good player but the football club and the badge on the front jersey is bigger than the name on the back. He’s been superb here, if we lose him we’ll lose him at a profit, we don’t want to lose him. Somebody else will get a chance to play in front of this fan base and hopefully climb lampposts on Gloucester Road next season.
“Good problems. Dale Vince will be kicking himself letting him go on a free out of their place. We’ve got to find some more of them, some more free transfers who we can develop.
“At these levels, you can find them and they are out there. You won’t get every free transfer being an Aaron Collins. If you get your recruitment right and the loans right in this division you can certainly build a promotion-winning team.”
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