Yes, I'm still predicting the Pirates to win the World Series in 2027.
But I'm wavering.
This has not been a great first half. I'm not talking about the record, which is about what everyone predicted. The Pirates are on pace to go 68-94, and I couldn't care less about that as they navigate the final stages of an epic tank job.
I'm talking about positive signs for the future. My criterion for a successful season coming in was to see players such as Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller flourish, to see at least some key prospects tear up the minors and to see some exciting new faces establish themselves at the major league level. Or at least lend big-time hope for the near future.
Some of that has happened. Some of that still might. I guess I was hoping for more over the first 93 games. I'm definitely hoping for more over the final 69.
Let's take a look at what could make these final few months a success.
More of Mitch Keller's newfound consistency
What's gotten into this guy? After a disastrous start, Keller's earned run average has improved every month. In three July starts, he has pitched 19 innings with a 2.37 ERA, 18 strikeouts and only three walks. Manager Derek Shelton says Keller's reliance on a hard sinker and his ability to weather adversity have led to the turnaround.
That stint in the bullpen seemed to help, too. Since returning to the rotation May 31 against the Dodgers, Keller has allowed more than three runs just twice in nine outings.
It's a start. The Pirates desperately need Keller to help lead their rotation into the future. They cannot afford another Tyler Glasnow-like debacle.
More of The Roansy Contreras Show
This has probably been the most encouraging development of all. Contreras, just 22, is 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 50 innings. He has been spectacular at times, and after his one blow-up start July 1 against Milwaukee, he rebounded with a beauty against the Reds (six innings, one run, seven strikeouts, one walk).
Next up for this guy is his first double-digit strikeout game. Could be the future ace. Maybe the present one. Next 10 starts are gigantic. (And it would be nice if some potential 3-4-5 guys had good second halves; JT Brubaker still shows promise.)
More offense from Hayes
Two years ago, he hit like Bill Madlock. Since then, he's hitting like Bill Almon ('80s reference, look it up). The Pirates don't need batting titles or even 25 home runs from the slick-fielding Hayes to justify his new contract. They just need a competent hitter — not one who's on pace for seven home runs and one of the worst slugging percentages of any third baseman in the National League.
More slugging from Reynolds (and then a new contract)
We finally saw the Reynolds of last year (and three years ago) in June, when he hit eight home runs with a .989 OPS. I've seen enough to believe he's going to be a high-impact hitter for a long time and one who should be part of the Pirates' future.
People talk of Reynolds like he's 37. He's only 27, two years older than Hayes. He's only in his third full major-league season. Make him a centerpiece for the future, not a showpiece at the deadline.
More competency — to match the electricity — from Oneil Cruz
This is the hot topic at the moment: What is the threshold for sending a player back to the minors? For Jack Suwinski, it was an 0-for-29 slump and a .198 average. We'll see about Cruz, who has a .638 OPS, including a microscopic on-base percentage of .240. He's hitting .196 in July. He looks overmatched.
Listen, I love Cruz against anybody in a skills competition. He's riveting even when he fails. The question is whether he can be a consistently productive baseball player, not just an occasionally amazing one.
I still say yes, and I'd love to say I have Suwinski and Cruz Sharpied into future lineups for years to come, but I've seen too much baseball to make that bet right now.
These next few months almost feel career-altering, one way or another, for Cruz.
More feel-good stretches from the all those hitting prospects
Injuries are a factor here. Plus, the pandemic wiped out a full developmental season and then some. And yes, some lower-ranked prospects are having good years. But when I peruse the top prospects and see Henry Davis hitting .177 at Altoona; and Nick Gonzalez hitting .247 and with a .746 OPS; and Matt Fraizer hitting .231; and Travis Swaggerty hitting .256 with a .744 OPS at Indianapolis, it's at least mildly concerning.
Especially if you have the Pirates winning the '27 Series.
