PITTSBURGH — If I told you before the season that Penn State would not beat a ranked team, would lose to Michigan and Ohio State by combined score of 85-48 — dropping James Franklin to 4-14 against those schools — and would finish third in the Big Ten East, you’d probably guess that fans would be fairly unhappy with Franklin and that 10-year extension he signed last November.
Likewise, if I told you Pitt would go 8-4, lose to Georgia Tech, lose to Louisville by two touchdowns and finish second in the ACC Coastal, you’d probably guess that fans would be livid with Pat Narduzzi and the juicy extension (through 2030) he signed in March.
Would those guesses have been correct?
Well, no. Not really. Not among those of sound mind, anyway. Not among those with realistic expectations.
Pitt fans have far more reason to be displeased, but honestly, if you’ve been watching Pitt football for any length of time, are you really going to turn your nose up at a possible 9-4 season?
There’s still an outside chance Pitt will finish in the Associated Press Top 25 for just the second time in 13 years and fifth in 32. The Panthers beat West Virginia in The Backyard Brawl. They finished on a four-game winning streak, though they fell far out of the rankings after beginning the season at No. 17.
Can a team both underachieve and justify its coach’s contract extension?
In this case, yes. There was a time I believed Pitt could do better than Walt Harris or Dave Wannstedt. I no longer believe that. It would be illogical to believe that.
Last season was an outlier. Pitt is what it is: a decent Power Five program capable of a pretty good year once in a while. Talk of a national championship, like you had in Pitt circles before the season, is of course delusional. Don’t do that to yourself — and don’t let Narduzzi do it, either. Even last year, Pitt lost as heavy home favorites to Western Michigan and Miami.
If you remove the two best years and two worst from Pitt’s past 40 full seasons, the win totals look like this, in reverse order: 8 (pending bowl game), 8, 7, 5, 8, 8, 6, 7, 6, 6, 8, 9, 5, 6, 5, 8. 8, 9, 7, 7, 5, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 6, 3, 8, 6, 8, 5, 5, 3, 8, 9.
In other words, go ahead and call 8-4 for next year, too. It’s a safe bet.
Narduzzi has provided stability — no small thing, seeing as Pitt was changing coaches faster than Todd Graham could say, “Speed, speed, speed” — and a 41-25 record in the ACC since he arrived. If I’m a Pitt fan, I can live with that and sometimes be disappointed, too.
As for Penn State, you do realize the Nittany Lions were unranked before the season and now are No. 8 with a chance to move up, yes?
Franklin will forever will be trying to live up to his “elite” comments from four years ago, and his program will not be considered elite until it can figure out how to beat Michigan and especially Ohio State consistently.
But a possible 11-win season and a top-five ranking would be pretty close to elite, wouldn’t it?
Penn State has an enticing quarterback prospect in Drew Allar ready to take over next season. Franklin is an excellent recruiter who reels in the kind of talent that gives his team a chance to win big each year, even if that doesn’t always happen (like 2020 and ’21). It’s undeniable that he falls short in the biggest games. His 2-15 record against top-10 opponents, including 11 straight losses, is a chilling testament to that.
Yet I’m guessing at least 120 of the 131 FBS schools — certainly Pitt — would like to be in Penn State's position heading into next season.
If I’m a Penn State fan, I’m thinking that even if there always seems to be that unattainable “next phase,” as Franklin so famously put it four years ago, life is pretty good right now.
Could I live with this for the next 10 years?
That’s a different question. And I think at some point, I’d like to beat Ohio State or Michigan or somebody ranked in the top 10.
