I’m tempted to say the Pirates can’t go wrong when they step to the podium around 7 p.m. Sunday to make the first overall pick of the draft.
But these are the Pirates. They can always go wrong, and often do.
This is Bob Nutting’s franchise, after all, and in this millennium alone, the Pirates chose Mark Appel eighth overall (just ahead of the likes of Lucas Giolito and Corey Seager) only to see him refuse to sign. They chose Tony Sanchez fourth overall (because he was cheap) only to see him become unusable. They chose Will Craig in the first round, only to see him hit precisely one home run in his Pirates career and become the first first baseman in baseball history to instigate a rundown between home and first.
I could keep going here.
I think I will.
This stuff writes itself.
One year the Pirates used the fourth overall pick on a relief pitcher (Daniel Moskos). Another year they drafted college baseball’s leading home run hitter (John Van Benschoten) eighth overall and turned him into a full-time pitcher ... who went 2-13 with a 9.20 ERA during his time with the club. Another year they used their first-round pick on Cole Tucker.
The year 2002, of course, provided the coup de gras: Upon choosing Ball State pitcher Bryan Bullington first overall, general manager David Littlefield stoked season-ticket sales like never before by declaring, “We feel comfortable projecting him as a No. 3 starter.”
Turned out Littlefield was embellishing. Bullington went 0-3 in his Pirates career.
You get the point. Even though this is a new regime, led by GM Ben Cherington, you can never fully trust the Pirates to do the right thing.
They better, in this case. Here’s hoping they have their decision narrowed to one of two LSU studs at the top of the draft: flame-throwing pitcher (and maybe power hitter) Paul Skenes or elite center-field prospect Dylan Crews.
The idea of taking Skenes took on an entirely new meaning based on what he told the KayRod Cast (Michael Kay and Alex Rodriguez) on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
Question: “Obviously, you’re going to be drafted as a pitcher, but you were an outstanding hitter (at Air Force), as well. Do you have any Ohtani dreams in your mind? Do you think you could do something like that? Do both?”
Skenes: “Absolutely. Obviously I didn’t hit this past year, (but) I’ve hit my whole life. Obviously started pitching the last few years. I’ve done both ... and want to continue to do both as long as I can.”
Wow. I’m not sure that’s a great idea. LSU coach Jay Johnson obviously didn’t think so after Skenes transferred from Air Force. But then again, why not?
Can you imagine the intrigue surrounding the 6-foot-7 Skenes if he is succeeding at both on his way toward the majors, the way he did at Air Force, when he was given the John Olerud Award as the best two-way player in the country in 2022? Skenes hit .367 with 24 home runs that year.
His Pirates debut would become an international event, surpassing even the massively hyped debut of Washington’s Stephen Strasburg back in 2010, when he struck out 14 Pirates. Skenes is widely considered the best college pitching prospect since Strasburg.
Prospect analyst Keith Law has called Skenes the hardest-throwing pitching prospect he has ever seen.
For all these reasons, Skenes is the pick for me. He routinely cracks 100 mph. He just set the SEC record for strikeouts in a season and was the first college player in 12 years to strike out more than 200 hitters.The Pirates might go decades without getting another shot at an arm like this. (They certainly won’t be paying $400 million for one.)
I realize the risk of injury is higher with pitchers, but everything’s a risk. Drafting position players such as Tucker, Craig, Travis Swaggerty and Sanchez were risks, too.
Having said that, I’d have a hard time ripping the Pirates if they took Crews. Draft experts from MLB.com pegged Crews as the likely pick (39 percent chance) and said this of him, more or less shooting down the idea he’ll be too expensive for the Pirates’ tastes:
"The majority of teams would take Crews No. 1, and most teams also think the Pirates will. The Pirates' next pick isn't until No. 42, and they have the biggest bonus pool ($16,185,700). Even if saving money early were a prime objective, there aren't a lot of reasonable picks that the first few teams could make to meet that objective. This class has many players talented enough and deserving of first-round bonuses. There's also this: Crews is an incredible athlete with a 70-grade hit tool and 60-grade power and speed. He projects to get to the big leagues fast and be an impact player when he gets there.”
Yes, all of this has me thinking of a lineup next season with Crews in it. Or a rotation with Mitch Keller and Skenes at the very top.
Or maybe the Pirates try to outsmart everybody and go a different route.
I’d rather they just make the obvious pick. I’d rather they do the right thing.
