Week 9 doesn’t have one marquee matchup, unless you count the last two Super Bowl champs battling to see who will move closer to missing the playoffs. Six teams are on the bye, including the Giants, and there are only two games in the 4 p.m. window (the aforementioned L.A. Rams-Tampa Bay contest and Seattle-Arizona).
Underdogs went 7-8 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 65-57-1 for the season. Including Thursday night’s game, there are a whopping eight teams favored on the road this week. Road favorites are 23-24-1 ATS this season but were 4-2 last week.
My most confident picks ATS this week are all underdogs: Seattle, Tennessee, Chicago and Carolina. Stay away from Las Vegas-Jacksonville, not that you needed me to tell you that.
1 P.M. GAMES
BUFFALO (6-1) AT JETS (5-3)
Buffalo by 11.5; O/U: 46.5
The chances of the Jets beating the powerhouse Bills are slim, but it’s not impossible to think this will be a close game. The NFL is the land of overreactions, and last week’s gut-punch loss in which Zach Wilson decided to play a game of hot potato with the New England secondary is a perfect example of that. Yes, Wilson is a serious question mark, but not enough to move this line a couple points. The Jets have a solid defense and shouldn’t be nearly two-TD underdogs at home. With their bye week on deck, I expect an all-out effort from the Jets. A 24-17 respectable loss as opposed to 31-10 is a huge difference, and something they can build off in two weeks when they regroup and travel to Foxborough for a season-defining matchup.
The pick: Jets
INDIANAPOLIS (3-4-1) AT NEW ENGLAND (4-4)
New England by 4.5; O/U: 40.5
This is a bad spot for Sam Ehlinger to make his first NFL road start. Yes, this is his second year, but it’s only his second career start and Bill Belichick is money against inexperienced quarterbacks. According to the Action Network, Belichick is 24-7 straight up vs. rookie signal-callers, including 14-0 at home (11-3 ATS). Oh, and the Colts just fired their offensive coordinator. Good luck, kid.
The pick: New England
MIAMI (5-3) AT CHICAGO (3-5)
Miami by 4.5; O/U: 45.5
The all-in Dolphins traded for pass rusher Bradley Chubb and running back Jeff Wilson. The Bears dealt two of their top defenders but did pick up receiver Chase Claypool. Miami is 5-0 in games Tua Tagovailoa finishes this season and should get to 6-0, but this spread is a couple points too high. Justin Fields and Chicago have finally found some rhythm, scoring 62 points over the last two weeks after totaling 64 in the four previous games.
The pick: Chicago
GREEN BAY (3-5) AT DETROIT (1-6)
Green Bay by 3.5; O/U: 49.5
TV: Fox
Aaron Rodgers said that playing at Buffalo might be the best thing for Green Bay, and he was of course wrong. Now, playing at Detroit? That’s a different story. Rodgers is 18-6 in his career vs. Detroit, with 52 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions. Against the NFL’s worst defense, Rodgers and his young receivers finally have a big day to snap a four-game skid.
The pick: Green Bay
MINNESOTA (6-1) AT WASHINGTON (4-4)
Minnesota by 3; O/U: 43.5
The Vikings were my preseason pick to win the NFC North, but I’m not sold on them being a contender. There’s no signature win and too many close contests. This feels like another as Kirk Cousins takes on his old team. Like Cousins, Taylor Heinicke is feisty and he’s given the Commanders a jolt as they eye a fourth straight win and cover.
The pick: Washington
L.A. CHARGERS (4-3) AT ATLANTA (4-4)
Los Angeles by 3; O/U: 49.5
Teams are 5-3 straight up after a bye week this season. The Chargers have so many injuries, they really needed a double bye. Even when fully healthy, this team always seems to play below its potential. The Chargers can’t stop the run (Atlanta’s calling card) and the Falcons have trouble against passing attacks (L.A.’s specialty). In a toss-up game, take the home team getting a field goal.
The pick: Atlanta
CAROLINA (2-6) AT CINCINNATI (4-4)
Cincinnati by 7.5; O/U: 42.5
Give the Panthers credit. It looked as if the franchise had thrown in the towel, trading their best player after firing their coach, but the players are still fighting. They followed up a 21-3 win over Tampa Bay with a 37-34, should’ve-had-it overtime loss at Atlanta. Joe Burrow figures to bounce back from a bad MNF loss at Cleveland, but Cincinnati is down its best receiver and best cornerback. The spread is too high.
The pick: Carolina
LAS VEGAS (2-5) AT JACKSONVILLE (2-6)
Las Vegas by 1.5; O/U: 47.5
Do I have to pick this one? Jacksonville returns from London after a fifth straight loss. Las Vegas was a no-show in a 24-0 flop. Take the team off the more embarrassing defeat.
The pick: Las Vegas
4 P.M. GAMES
L.A. RAMS (3-4) AT TAMPA BAY (3-5)
TV: CBS
Tampa Bay by 3; O/U: 42.5
The NFL’s last two Super Bowl champs meet with the loser (and even winner) having a real chance of missing the playoffs. Both teams’ struggles start with the offensive line. The Rams also don’t have a running game, but I trust the coach-QB combo of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford more than Todd Bowles and Tom Brady. The undisciplined Bucs make too many mistakes, and Brady looks more and more frustrated with every loss (this is the first time in his career he’s dropped five of six games). The Bucs haven’t covered since Week 2. Aaron Donald seals a Rams win late.
The pick: L.A. Rams
LOCK OF THE WEEK
SEATTLE (5-3) AT ARIZONA (3-5)
TV: Fox
Arizona by 2; O/U: 49.5
When I looked at this week’s lines on Sunday night, I did a double-take when Arizona was listed as a 3.5-point favorite. How could that be? Seattle beat Arizona, 19-9, just three weeks ago, Geno Smith is playing the best football of his life and the NFC West-leading Seahawks are allowing an average of 15 points during a three-game win streak. Pete Carroll also has a huge coaching advantage over Kliff Kingsbury. Arizona is 1-8 in its last nine home games (1-3 this season). One of the golden rules in picking NFL games is that if you think the better team is getting points, pounce.
The pick: Seattle
SUNDAY NIGHT
TENNESSEE (5-2) AT KANSAS CITY (5-2)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Kansas City by 12.5; O/U: 44.5
The Titans are on two five-game winning streaks: straight up (SU) and ATS. One will end, one will keep going. Andy Reid is 20-3 off a regular-season bye, a stat everyone who follows the NFL knows by now. Now, let’s talk about the other coach. Tennessee has thrived as an underdog under Mike Vrabel, going 19-10 SU and 20-9 ATS when getting three or more points, according to the Action Network. The Titans always seem to give KC a fight, with Reid being 2-5 against them since 2013. That includes a 27-3 loss last season at Tennessee. The Titans’ plan is simple: Pound Derrick Henry and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. Tennessee can ride Henry and a solid defense to keeping this well inside the number. As explosive as KC is, it’s not a guarantee to win by double digits as all three of its home games have been close: 3-point win, 1-point win, 4-point loss.
The pick: Tennessee
MONDAY NIGHT
BALITMORE (5-3) AT NEW ORLEANS (3-5)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Baltimore by 2.5; O/U: 47.5
All signs favor the Ravens: They’re on extra-extra rest (TNF to MNF), have a bye next week so they’ll be extra-motivated and have the big advantage in turnover margin (tied for second in the NFL at +6 compared with the Saints’ NFL-worst -9). All that and I still like the home ‘dogs in the Superdome (for what it’s worth, underdogs are on a 4-0 ATS run on MNF). New Orleans has been hit hard by the injury bug but is in the thick of the NFC South race after last week’s shutout win at home. The Ravens are far from dominant, and the Saints’ defense will be the difference. Andy Dalton (6-19 in prime time) gets a rare win under the bright lights.
The pick: New Orleans
