There is a point in every NFL season when you should stop being surprised. That time is now. Stop doubting the Jets and Giants. Stop thinking teams with established track records and/or quarterbacks (see: Packers and Broncos) can automatically flip a switch. Take what you’ve seen over the first month-plus, not what you thought you’d see or are still expecting to see.
Underdogs went 8-6 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 51-42-1 for the season.
My most confident picks ATS this week are New England, the Jets and Kansas City. There are no true stay-away games, but be careful with Green Bay-Washington.
THE LOCALS
JETS (4-2) AT DENVER (2-4)
TV: CBS, 4:05 p.m.
Denver by 1.5; O/U: 38.5
Jets fans know how difficult it is to win in Denver. They should also know that this Jets team has the formula to beat these Broncos: Run the ball and play the same smash-mouth defense it did in taking over Lambeau Field last week. Denver has a top-5 defense and is tough to throw on, but it does allow 105.8 rushing yards per game (13th best against the run, one spot behind the Jets). Breece Hall and Michael Carter will be able to sustain drives, churn clock and control this game. On the other side, Russell Wilson is banged up and whoever starts for Denver (1-5 ATS) will be in for a long day against Quinnen Williams and a relentless Jets defense. If you’ve watched any of Denver’s four prime-time games, you’ll know what a mess this lowest-scoring offense (15.2 ppg) is. The Jets (4-2 ATS) could use last year’s 26-0 loss at Denver as motivation, but it has such a HUGE advantage with their defensive line, it probably isn’t even necessary. Dominate the line of scrimmage and head home with a 5-2 record. Jets 20, Broncos 13.
The pick: Jets
GIANTS (5-1) AT JACKSONVILLE (2-4)
TV: Fox, 1 p.m.
Jacksonville by 3; O/U: 42.5
A record 57 games have been decided by eight points or fewer, including all six Giants games (and all four Jaguars losses). So, why are the 5-1 Giants underdogs? Well, this is a spot where a letdown could occur after comeback wins against the favored Packers and Ravens and Big Blue has been living by the comeback win. The Jaguars (2-4 ATS), losers of three in a row, are also the desperate team at home. But guess what? Brian Daboll and his coaching staff are the X (& O) factor. The Giants (5-1 ATS) are never out of it and get better as the game progresses: 48-22 edge in the fourth quarter. Expect another close game and another close win by the best-coached team in the NFL.
The pick: Giants
1 p.m. Games
DETROIT (1-4) AT DALLAS (4-2)
TV: CBS
Dallas by 7; O/U: 48.5
The last we saw the Lions, they were shut out at New England. Their bye week arrived at the right time, as they’re getting healthier and should have playmakers Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) and D’Andre Swift (RB) back. Dak Prescott is slated to return for the Cowboys, but he could be rusty after missing five weeks. The Cowboys win, but the Lions fight to the finish.
The pick: Detroit
GREEN BAY (3-3) AT WASHINGTON (2-4)
Green Bay by 4.5; O/U: 41.5
After back-to-back humbling losses to the Giants and Jets, here’s hoping the panic has set in for the Packers. I don't feel comfortable backing them, but Washington has played even worse. It could get a spark from backup QB Taylor Heinicke. This feels like a 4-to-7-point win for the Packers, so Vegas, of course, has the line just right. The Packers haven’t lost three in a row since the 2018 season.
The pick: Green Bay
TAMPA BAY (3-3) AT CAROLINA (1-5)
Tampa Bay by 10.5; O/U: 40
This is a lot of points to lay with a Bucs team that burned backers as a big road favorite last week but look at the alternative. Carolina is a bottom-3 offense. Since joining Tampa Bay, Tom Brady is 4-0 vs. Carolina with final scores of 31-17, 46-23, 32-6 and 41-17.
The pick: Tampa Bay
INDIANAPOLIS (3-2-1) AT TENNESSEE (3-2)
Tennessee by 2.5; O/U: 42
Can the Colts make it (pay)back-to-(pay)back wins? After avenging an earlier loss to Jacksonville, it’s on to Tennessee, which beat Indianapolis, 24-17, in Week 4. The Titans are 4-0 after their bye week under Mike Vrabel, so it’s tempting to take the hosts. They’re also 4-0 in the teams’ last four meetings. Still, the Colts are getting healthier, Matt Ryan is finding his groove and Tennessee has been living on the edge during a three-game win streak. Can you believe the Titans have scored ZERO points in the fourth quarter this season?
The pick: Indianapolis
CLEVELAND (2-4) AT BALTIMORE (3-3)
Baltimore by 6.5; O/U: 45.5
If the Ravens jump out to another big lead, will they be able to hold it? Last week they let the Giants rally for a comeback win after allowing Miami and Buffalo to do it earlier this year in Baltimore. The Ravens’ home games have been decided by 4, 3 and 2 points. This could be the week Baltimore puts together a complete game against a reeling Browns team.
The pick: Baltimore
ATLANTA (3-3) AT CINCINNATI (3-3)
Cincinnati by 6.5; O/U: 47.5
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS. Their surprising 3-3 start and 165.2 rushing yards per game make them an attractive underdog. They can’t get after the quarterback, though, and that could spell a long day against Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, who got it going last week in a comeback win at New Orleans.
The pick: Cincinnati
4 p.m. Games
KANSAS CITY (4-2) AT SAN FRANCISCO (3-3)
TV: Fox
Kansas City by 2.5; O/U: 48.5
If the 49ers were at full strength, this Super Bowl LIV rematch would be more compelling. It’s still the best game of the week, but not good enough for the usual “Game of the Week” treatment. Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 after a loss. He has too many weapons for the banged-up 49ers to stop, so expect a similar game to that big one in February 2020: Close for three quarters before Mahomes and the No. 1 scoring offense (29.8 ppg) pull away.
The pick: Kansas City
SEATTLE (3-3) AT L.A. CHARGERS (4-2)
Los Angeles by 5.5; O/U: 50.5
Six days after a 19-16 OT win on MNF against Russell Wilson’s Broncos, the Chargers better not take his old team lightly. Geno Smith’s 73.4 completion percentage is tops in the NFL. All the Chargers do is play close contests, so expect another down-to-the-wire game.
The pick: Seattle
HOUSTON (1-3-1) AT LAS VEGAS (1-4)
Las Vegas by 7; O/U: 45.5
Both teams are off a bye, so there’s no edge there. The Raiders have more talent, hence the big spread in a battle of one-win teams. They also are prone to self-inflicted errors (see: nearly every loss this season).
The pick: Houston
SUNDAY NIGHT
PITTSBURGH (2-4) AT MIAMI (3-3)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Miami by 7; O/U: 44.5
Miami gets Tua Tagovailoa back after losing three in a row. That will be the difference in the Dolphins righting the ship, but this spread is a tad high. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 47-26 ATS as an underdog.
The pick: Pittsburgh
LOCK OF THE WEEK
MONDAY NIGHT
CHICAGO (2-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (3-3)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
New England by 7.5; O/U: 39.5
A Bill Belichick-led defense vs. a Justin Fields-led offense makes this the biggest mismatch of the week. The Patriots have won two in a row by shutting out the high-scoring Lions (29-0) and blitzing the Browns (38-15). If you watched the Bears’ 12-7 TNF loss last week, you’ll know how limited they are. How’s 27-3 sound?
The pick: New England
