If you watch NFL RedZone like me every Sunday, you’ll know there’s been a ton of late drama through the first three weeks. Eighteen of the 48 games have been decided by three or fewer points, the most in NFL history at this point. With only one spread over a touchdown this week, expect more of the same in the ultra-competitive, parity-driven NFL.
Underdogs went 9-7 against the spread (ATS) in Week 3 after back-to-back 8-8 marks. A dozen of this week’s games, including Thursday night, have spreads right around three points or fewer.
My most confident picks ATS are Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland and Kansas City. Stay away from Arizona-Carolina and avoid the London game as well.
GAME OF THE WEEK
SUNDAY NIGHT
KANSAS CITY (2-1) AT TAMPA BAY (2-1)
Tampa Bay by 1; O/U: 45.5
Patrick Mahomes has pretty much done everything in his young NFL career ... except get a rematch against the team that made him look most mortal. Nearly 20 months after Tampa Bay’s 31-9 win over Kansas City in Super Bowl LV, Mahomes, Andy Reid & Co. take on Tom Brady and the Bucs in what figures to be a close prime-time battle. Todd Bowles’ defense has been lights-out through three weeks, allowing an NFL-low nine points per game. How Mahomes handles the pressure will be the key to this game. The fact that Kansas City is off a surprising loss at Indianapolis only makes me like Mahomes more in this spot. As great as the Bucs defense is playing, the offense has been off, and it will need to do something it hasn’t done this season: score 20-plus points. Add in the fact that Tampa Bay had to relocate this week because of Hurricane Ian, and it’s too tall an order against a motivated Mahomes.
The pick: Kansas City
LONDON GAME
MINNESOTA (2-1) VS. NEW ORLEANS (1-2)
Minnesota by 2.5; O/U: 43.5
We could get some early-morning fireworks in this one. Both teams feature talented receivers, but Minnesota has the edge at quarterback with Kirk Cousins opposing a banged-up Jameis Winston. New Orleans flew to London after its Week 3 loss and Minnesota didn’t arrive till later in the week. Could that be a factor?
The pick: Minnesota
1 P.M. GAMES
JETS (1-2) AT PITTSBURGH (1-2)
Pittsburgh by 3; O/U: 41.5
This is the fourth straight week I’m taking the Jets (1-2 ATS), and I don’t feel good about it. But I don’t like the alternative either in what figures to be a low-scoring game. Zach Wilson returns, and his ability to extend plays with his legs could give the Jets offense a boost. The Jets’ defense has been abysmal, but so has Mitch Trubisky and the offense of the Steelers (1-2 ATS). Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t the same without T.J. Watt. If the Jets can make it out of the AFC North lineup of their schedule at 2-2, that’s a win-win.
The pick: Jets
CHICAGO (2-1) AT GIANTS (2-1)
Giants by 3; O/U: 39.5
After a 2-0 start, the Giants suffered a pair of losses on MNF: to the Cowboys, and receiver Sterling Shepard to a season-ending injury. On a short week with next week’s London game against the Packers in the back of their mind, I don’t expect a fully-focused effort. The Giants will have trouble stopping Chicago's No. 2-ranked rushing attack (186.7 yards per game).
The pick: Chicago
WASHINGTON (1-2) AT DALLAS (2-1)
Dallas by 3; O/U: 41.5
I picked against Dallas the last two weeks and had a feeling I might be on the wrong side. Cooper Rush has a real command of the offense, and Carson Wentz (sacked nine times last week against the Eagles) now faces Micah Parsons and a Dallas defense that leads the NFL in sacks with 13.
The pick: Dallas
JACKSONVILLE (2-1) AT PHILADELPHIA (3-0)
Philadelphia by 6.5; O/U: 45.5
The first-place Jaguars are one of the best stories of the early season. I see myself backing them a lot this year. Just not this week. Doug Pederson's new team will have its hands full with Doug Pederson's old team, the NFC’s lone 3-0 squad. Jalen Hurts is playing like an MVP for the Eagles’ No. 1 offense (447 yards per game).
The pick: Philadelphia
BUFFALO (2-1) AT BALTIMORE (2-1)
Buffalo by 3; O/U: 51
When time ran out on Josh Allen and Buffalo in a 21-19 loss to Miami, my first thought was, “I can’t wait to back the Bills next week.” That excitement was tempered a bit when I saw it was a road game against the always dangerous Lamar Jackson. Still, the Bills’ passing game will be too much for Baltimore’s banged-up secondary. Both the Bills (2-1 ATS) and Ravens (2-1 ATS) lost to the Dolphins despite having nearly 500 yards of offense. Look for a boatload of yards and points in this one as Allen, Stefon Diggs and the Bills remind everyone they’re still a super contender.
The pick: Buffalo
TENNESSEE (1-2) AT INDIANAPOLIS (1-1-1)
Indianapolis by 3.5; O/U: 42.5
This is the toughest call of Week 4. Both had huge wins last week to get on the board. This feels like a late-field-goal-wins-it type of game. I’m down on the Titans overall, but they’ve won four of the last five meetings, including three in a row at Indianapolis.
The pick: Tennessee
L.A. CHARGERS (1-2) AT HOUSTON (0-2-1)
Los Angeles by 5.5; O/U: 44.5
Conventional thinking may be that the Chargers will easily bounce back after a 38-10 home loss to the Jaguars. Now, look at the injury report. In addition to Justin Herbert not being 100%, L.A. will be without its best pass blocker, Rashawn Slater, and a top pass rusher, Joey Bosa. There are more injuries, too. The Texans beat the Chargers, 41-29, at Houston in Week 16 last year when L.A. was fighting for a playoff spot. This won’t be easy.
The pick: Houston
CLEVELAND (2-1) AT ATLANTA (1-2)
Cleveland by 1.5; O/U: 47.5
The feisty Falcons (3-0 ATS) will be in this game, but Cleveland's No. 1 rushing attack (190.7 yards per game) led by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be the difference in the fourth quarter.
The pick: Cleveland
LOCK OF THE WEEK
SEATTLE (1-2) AT DETROIT (1-2)
Detroit by 4.5; O/U: 48.5
The Lions are a good football team. You read that right! The offense has explosive players, and I expect a big bounce-back game after Detroit blew leads of 14-0 and 24-14 at Minnesota. After the loss, coach Dan Campbell said he regretted trying a field goal up 24-21 instead of going for it with just over a minute left. Campbell is already the ultimate players’ coach, but that kind of honesty and accountability resonates with players. As long as speedy receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown plays, Jared Goff and the Detroit offense (second in points per game at 31.7 and yards per game at 409) will light up the scoreboard against a bad defense. 40 points?
The pick: Detroit
4 P.M. Games
NEW ENGLAND (1-2) AT GREEN BAY (2-1)
Green Bay by 9.5; O/U: 39.5
Last season the Packers had a no-show loss in the opener and then reeled off seven straight wins. This season the Packers had a no-show loss in the opener and will make it three straight wins. The Patriots will likely have to go with Brian Hoyer at quarterback with Mac Jones injured.
The pick: Green Bay
DENVER (2-1) AT LAS VEGAS (0-3)
Las Vegas by 2.5; O/U: 45.5
This is the rare matchup where the 0-3 team has looked better than the 2-1 team. Vegas seems to agree about Vegas, hence the point spread. Denver has two wins despite scoring 16, 16 and 11 points. The Raiders have been in every game but have self-destructed. Take the NFL's lone 0-3 team in a desperate spot.
The pick: Las Vegas
ARIZONA (1-2) AT CAROLINA (1-2)
Carolina by 1.5; O/U: 43.5
Kyler Murray vs. Baker Mayfield doesn't have as much buzz as it once did. Carolina should be able to build off last week’s home win over New Orleans against an Arizona squad that has been outscored 56-13 in the first half.
The pick: Carolina
MONDAY NIGHT
L.A. RAMS (2-1) AT SAN FRANCISCO (1-2)
San Francisco by 1.5; O/U: 42.5
The same way Sean McVay has Arizona’s number (11-1 after last week’s win), Kyle Shanahan has had McVay’s number (7-4 head-to-head). The 49ers won both regular-season matchups last year, including a 31-10 blowout on MNF. The Rams had the last laugh in the NFC title game but remember: the 49ers would’ve went to the Super Bowl if not for a dropped INT late. The loss of Trent Williams is huge for the 49ers, but the Rams have their own offensive line issues. In what should be a close game, I side with Shanahan’s track record. He knows how to beat this Rams defense.
The pick: San Francisco
