Nearly one month in, what do we know? Well, the Giants and Jets are going to be underdogs in every game from here on out. That's the easy part. As for the rest of the league, we've learned some but still not enough. As we told you before Week 2, never make too much out of those Week 1 losses (see: Buffalo, Green Bay, Tennessee and more). The NFL is always unpredictable, and the point spread is the ultimate equalizer.
Underdogs went 9-7 against the spread (ATS) last week after going 11-5 in Week 1 and 8-7-1 in Week 2.
My most confident picks ATS are Green Bay, Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Stay away from Detroit-Chicago.
GAME OF THE WEEK
TAMPA BAY (2-1) AT NEW ENGLAND (1-2)
Tampa Bay by 7; O/U: 49
Tom Brady has accomplished everything in his illustrious, seemingly never-going-to-end NFL career. The seven-time Super Bowl champion has beaten every team at least once ... except the New England Patriots, of course. Now, in the national spotlight on Sunday Night Football, Brady gets to roll into town with his defending champ Bucs and do just that against old coach Bill Belichick. Brady is 17-6, including the playoffs, since the split; Belichick is 8-11. This is as juicy as Week 4 games get, and you have to think Brady, the ultimate competitor, will want to put on a show. The 44-year-old leads the NFL with 10 TD passes. The Bucs were 5-0 ATS after a loss in Brady’s first year. Todd Bowles’ defense is missing some key pieces but they still have enough to frustrate rookie Mac Jones the way Belichick’s been doing to rookie QBs forever. Let’s set the over/under Brady + Rob Gronkowski TD spikes at 3.5. Give me the over, and Brady and the Bucs big.
The pick: Tampa Bay
1 P.M. GAMES
GIANTS (0-3) AT NEW ORLEANS (2-1)
New Orleans by 8; O/U: 42
If the Giants can't beat the Falcons at home, on Eli Manning Day to boot, how are they going to keep up with the Saints in Archie's Place? New Orleans is playing its true home opener (remember, its Week 1 "home game" was in Jacksonville because of the Hurricane Ida aftermath) and the Superdome will be rocking. The Giants have injuries at receiver and this could get out of hand against a Saints team that has looked strong in its two wins (38-3 over Packers and 28-13 over Patriots). Look on the bright side, Giants fans: At least you won't have to suffer defeat on another last-second field goal.
The pick: New Orleans
TENNESSEE (2-1) AT JETS (0-3)
Tennessee by 7; O/U: 44.5
When I wrote in Week 1 that the Jets’ ceiling was 7-8 wins, what I meant to say was ... 7-8 points! The Jets (0-3 ATS) have scored just 20 points and there’s no reason to back them, no matter the spread. Derrick Henry should run wild and Mike Vrabel’s defense will feast against Zach Wilson and an overmatched offense. After another lopsided home defeat, the Jets will be happy to get away and fly to London.
The pick: Tennessee
KANSAS CITY (1-2) AT PHILADELPHIA (1-2)
Kansas City by 7; O/U: 54.5
This line stinks. If the game was in Kansas City, the Eagles would be two-TD underdogs? As bad as they looked in a 41-21 loss at Dallas on MNF, that’s off. This is the classic "team looked awful last week, watch them play well this week" scenario. Everyone’s always up when Patrick Mahomes rolls into town, so expect Jalen Hurts and underdog Philly to bring it Rocky style. The Eagles have the playmakers to deliver a few haymakers down the field, too. Mahomes & Co. will avoid a 1-3 start, but don’t forget: KC is 0-3 ATS and 1-12-1 over its last 14 games. This will be closer than you think.
The pick: Philadelphia
CAROLINA (3-0) AT DALLAS (2-1)
Dallas by 5; O/U: 51.5
Carolina won’t have Christian McCaffrey and Dak Prescott and Dallas are riding high after a big MNF win. Easy pick, right? Not so fast. Former Baylor coach Matt Rhule will look to make it back-to-back wins in Texas. After a 10-day layoff, the extra rest vs. short week could be a factor. Dallas should win, but it'll be close.
The pick: Carolina
WASHINGTON (1-2) AT ATLANTA (1-2)
Washington by 2; O/U: 47.5
Both teams’ wins were on last-second field goals against the Giants. The Falcons lost, 32-6, to the Eagles in their home opener. Washington’s pass rush could be the difference.
The pick: Washington
CLEVELAND (2-1) AT MINNESOTA (1-2)
Cleveland by 2; O/U: 51.5
This is the most intriguing matchup outside of Belichick-Brady. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski returns to Minnesota, where he was a longtime assistant and offensive coordinator. He knows Mike Zimmer’s defense, and Zimmer knows Stefanski’s offense. Minnesota’s two losses were by a combined four points. Kirk Cousins (8 TDs, 0 INTs) and the passing attack win a 27-24 type of game.
The pick: Minnesota
HOUSTON (1-2) AT BUFFALO (2-1)
Buffalo by 17; O/U: 47
A lot has changed since Houston’s wild overtime win over Buffalo in the wild-card round in January 2020. Now the Bills look like a Super Bowl contender and the Texans are a bottom-five team. Don’t be scared off by the huge number: Buffalo would've covered this spread the last two weeks (35-0 and 43-21 wins).
The pick: Buffalo
INDIANAPOLIS (0-3) AT MIAMI (1-2)
Miami by 2; O/U: 42.5
Miami took Las Vegas to OT and will show up after losing 35-0 in its last home game. Also, Jacoby Brissett Revenge Game!
The pick: Miami
DETROIT (0-3) AT CHICAGO (1-2)
Chicago by 3; O/U: 42
If I could NOT pick one game all year, this might be it. Detroit has been a feisty 0-3 and Chicago had one net passing yard last week. This feels like a 13-10 slopfest.
The pick: Detroit
4 P.M. GAMES
ARIZONA (3-0) AT L.A. RAMS (3-0)
Los Angeles by 5; O/U: 55
My favorite current NFL stat: Sean McVay is 40-0 when the Rams have a halftime lead. Here’s another: Since McVay took over in 2017, L.A. is 8-0 against Arizona. That’s 8-0 overall AND 8-0 ATS. Leading man Matthew Stafford and his super supporting cast will star again against a Cardinals team whose last two wins were far from impressive.
The pick: L.A. Rams
SEATTLE (1-2) AT SAN FRANCISCO (2-1)
San Francisco by 3; O/U: 52
This wild, wild NFC West rivalry could go either way. I’ll side with the more desperate visitors looking to avoid a 1-3 start.
The pick: Seattle
LOCK OF THE WEEK
PITTSBURGH (1-2) AT GREEN BAY (2-1)
Green Bay by 7; O/U: 45.5
The Pack have won back-to-back prime-time games after a Week 1 dud that doesn't even feel real at this point. The banged-up Steelers have lost two in a row after winning their opener. These are two teams going in different directions, and that will show in a big way.
The pick: Green Bay
BALTIMORE (2-1) AT DENVER (3-0)
Denver by 1; O/U: 45
Baltimore needed an NFL-record 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker to escape the lowly Lions. Denver is 3-0 but it’s against the combined 0-9 Giants, Jaguars and Jets. This could again come down to kicking, so you know who I’m picking.
The pick: Baltimore
MONDAY NIGHT
LAS VEGAS (3-0) AT L.A. CHARGERS (2-1)
Los Angeles by 3.5; O/U: 51.5
The last four meetings have been decided by 3 (OT), 5, 7 and 2 points. All the Chargers do is play close games, so even if they win, a cover isn’t a guarantee.
The pick: Las Vegas
