Week 2 is all about one word: Overreaction. Don’t fall into the trap. The Eagles probably won’t play as good a game as they did in Week 1 the rest of the season. The Titans won’t look that bad again, either. And so on and so on for a bunch of other teams and individual players. Don’t put too much stock into one game.
Underdogs went 11-5 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1. They always bark loudest early in the season, though this week there are some favorable lines for favorites.
My most confident picks ATS this week are Cleveland, Kansas City and Tennessee. There aren’t any true "stay away" games, but be careful with Jets-Pats, Broncos-Jaguars and Bengals-Bears.
1 P.M. Games
NEW ENGLAND (0-1) AT JETS (0-1)
Patriots by 6; O/U: 42.5
Rookie QB vs. rookie QB. Rookie coach vs. . . . greatest coach in NFL history. Neither offense looked great in Week 1 losses, but the Jets have bigger question marks and Bill Belichick has shown he has the answers to solving first-year quarterbacks. Belichick is 21-6 when facing them. Zach Wilson took a pounding in his NFL debut, and Belichick will throw a ton of different looks to confuse him. Mac Jones has an easier matchup against a young Jets secondary. It’s hard to imagine the Pats starting 0-2 with both losses in the division. The under could be a good play in what feels like a 20-13 kind of game.
The pick: New England
BUFFALO (0-1) AT MIAMI (1-0)
Buffalo by 3.5; O/U: 47.5
Maybe a loss in its home opener was the best thing for Buffalo, a popular pick to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo has won five in a row against Miami. Josh Allen is 5-1 against the AFC East rival, with 17 TDs to just four INTs. Expect the Bills to remind people why they were a preseason favorite.
The pick: Buffalo
LAS VEGAS (1-0) AT PITTSBURGH (1-0)
Pittsburgh by 5.5; O/U: 47
This line feels a bit inflated because of Pittsburgh’s win at Buffalo, in which it scored 23 points after a scoreless first half. The "letdown factor" is in play here for the Raiders after a thrilling overtime win on MNF, but Gruden’s Grinders should stay inside the number.
The pick: Las Vegas
L.A. RAMS (1-0) AT INDIANAPOLIS (0-1)
L.A. by 3; O/U: 47.5
Matthew Stafford’s debut with his new team went a lot smoother than Carson Wentz’s did. This might be closer than you think, but the Rams are a complete team and the Stafford-Sean McVay QB-coach duo is going to be tough to stop this season.
The pick: Rams
SAN FRANCISCO (1-0) AT PHILADELPHIA (1-0)
San Francisco by 3.5; O/U: 50.5
Good news, Eagles fans: 32-6 win in Week 1. Bad news, Eagles fans: 32-6 win in Week 1. With a performance like that comes greater expectations. They shouldn’t overreact after one game, and the well-balanced 49ers are a step up in competition from Atlanta. This will be close in the fourth quarter before San Francisco pulls away.
The pick: San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS (1-0) AT CAROLINA (1-0)
New Orleans by 4.5; O/U: 44.5
Raise your hand if you had Jameis Winston throwing five TD passes in a 35-point win over the Packers. Anyone? Anyone? What an impressive performance. The Saints are a big step up in competition from the Jets.
The pick: New Orleans
LOCK OF THE WEEK
HOUSTON (1-0) AT CLEVELAND (0-1)
Cleveland by 12.5; O/U: 48.5
This will be the last time all season Houston has a better record than Cleveland, which had a 22-10 halftime lead at Kansas City in Week 1 before losing 33-29. Don’t be scared by the big number – there’s a reason it’s that high. Baker Mayfield & Co. could put up 40 in this one.
The pick: Cleveland
CINCINNATI (1-0) AT CHICAGO (0-1)
Chicago by 1; O/U: 45.5
Welcome to the Andy Dalton Bowl. If he loses to his former team in the Bears’ home opener, that will make it one step closer to Justin Fields taking over. Joe Burrow's Bengals have been in most games since he took over, and just like last week, they are a live 'dog in this one.
The pick: Cincinnati
DENVER (1-0) AT JACKSONVILLE (0-1)
Denver by 5.5; O/U: 45.5
The Jaguars had no business being road favorites in Week 1. Now, they’re a big home ‘dog, but how can you back them? There are reports that Urban Meyer is not having a fun time, and neither will Trevor Lawrence as Von Miller introduces himself.
The pick: Denver
4 P.M. Games
DALLAS (0-1) AT L.A. CHARGERS (1-0)
L.A. by 2.5; O/U: 55.5
This could be another thriller like Dallas’ 31-29 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFL opener. Dak Prescott looked phenomenal in his first game back and the well-rested Cowboys will be in this one down to the wire.
The pick: Dallas
ATLANTA (0-1) AT TAMPA BAY (1-0)
Tampa Bay by 11.5; O/U: 51.5
There’s no doubt Tampa Bay will win, but this is a big number against a division rival. As bad as Atlanta looked in a 32-6 loss at home against Philadelphia, Matt Ryan has weapons and can put up 20-24 points to cover.
The pick: Atlanta
TENNESSEE (0-1) AT SEATTLE (1-0)
Seattle by 5.5; O/U: 53.5
Tennessee is better than it looked in a 38-13, never-in-it loss at home to Arizona. It’ll be surprising to see the Titans win with Seattle getting its "12th Man" back, but for whatever reason, the Seahawks tend to play close games at home early on: They’ve won five home openers in a row, but four of them were by 1, 2, 3 and 5 points. This will be another down-to-the-wire opener.
The pick: Tennessee
MINNESOTA (0-1) AT ARIZONA (1-0)
Arizona by 4.5; O/U: 51
The way Kyler Murray (4 total TDs) led the offense and Chandler Jones (5 sacks) anchored the defense last week, there’s no reason not to be all-in on the Cards in their home opener.
The pick: Arizona
SUNDAY NIGHT
GAME OF THE WEEK
KANSAS CITY (1-0) AT BALTIMORE (0-1)
Kansas City by 3.5; O/U: 55.5
Picking NFL games is all about not overthinking things. Sometimes, the obvious choice is the right choice, and that’s the case here: Lamar Jackson has shown he can’t beat Kansas City, and Patrick Mahomes has shown that, well, nobody can beat him in September. The most electrifying quarterback in the game saves his best for first: He is 11-0 in September with 35 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. No, that was not a typo. Throw in the fact that Mahomes is 3-0 head-to-head against Jackson and this is an easy pick. How is Baltimore going to stop this high-octane offense, especially on short rest? The Ravens just put a ton of effort into a flattening OT loss at Las Vegas on MNF. They are also missing key players, and if KC jumps out to a lead as it did in last year’s 34-20 win at Baltimore, it’ll be over early.
The pick: Kansas City
MONDAY NIGHT
DETROIT (0-1) AT GREEN BAY (0-1)
Packers by 11.5; O/U: 48.5
The only thing more shocking than the Packers’ 38-3 loss in Week 1 was that I somehow went 12-4 ATS. Expect Aaron Rodgers (17-5 all-time vs. Lions) and Green Bay to rebound in a big way.
The pick: Green Bay
