Week 18 presents a big challenge. Unlike past Week 17s, there aren’t as many playoff-implication games, but still plenty of, "Who’s resting? Who’s playing? And for how long?" questions. With so much uncertainty, the smart play is to just focus on one or two games where the playing field is even. Let us get all the other games wrong.
Underdogs went 7-9 against the spread (ATS) last week and have lost their season lead after once having a huge advantage. Favorites are 127-126-2.
My most confident picks ATS this week are Tampa Bay, Kansas City and the L.A. Chargers. Stay away from many, especially Dallas-Philadelphia and Cincinnati-Cleveland.
GAME OF THE WEEK
L.A. CHARGERS (9-7) AT LAS VEGAS (9-7)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
L.A. by 3; O/U: 49.5
The final game of the final week of the regular season is basically a playoff game, with the winner getting an AFC wild-card spot. Weird scenario alert: I saw on Twitter earlier that if the Colts were to somehow lose to the Jaguars, the Chargers and Raiders would both make the playoffs ... if they tied! Imagine 60 minutes of kneel-downs and a 0-0 finish. John Madden would laugh about that. Speaking of the legend, my heart wanted to take the Raiders because of him. But my head intervened and said go with the better quarterback and better team talent-wise. Justin Herbert threw three touchdown passes in the Chargers’ 28-14 win over the Raiders on MNF back in Week 4. Sometimes it’s best to keep NFL picking simple and just take the team that "should" win. That’s the Chargers.
The pick: L.A. Chargers
SATURDAY'S GAMES
KANSAS CITY (11-5) AT DENVER (7-9)
TV: ESPN, ABC, 4:30 p.m.
Kansas City by 11.5; O/U: 45.5
Kansas City’s loss last week knocked itself out of the AFC’s 1 seed. It needs to beat Denver and then hope Tennessee loses to Houston again. The second part is unlikely to happen, but with this game being on Saturday, KC can only take care of its own business and it will. Patrick Mahomes is 8-0 vs. Denver, including a 22-9 win earlier this season.
The pick: Kansas City
DALLAS (11-5) AT PHILADELPHIA (9-7)
TV: ESPN, ABC, 8:20 p.m.
Dallas by 4.5; O/U: 43.5
Both NFC East rivals are in the playoffs, and only positioning is at stake. The Cowboys are off a loss and may be motivated to enter the postseason with a win. The Eagles have had some COVID issues this week, and it’s unclear who will play, and for how long.
The pick: Dallas
SUNDAY'S 1 P.M. GAMES
WASHINGTON (6-10) AT GIANTS (4-12)
Washington by 7; O/U: 38
These teams played a thriller on TNF in Week 2, a frustrating 30-29 Giants loss. Remember when they used to lose those kinds of heartbreakers? Now, they’re not even competitive. This is a big number for a road team to lay in a rivalry game, but can Jake Fromm and the Giants (0-5 overall and ATS in their last five) score 14-plus?
The pick: Washington
INDIANAPOLIS (9-7) AT JACKSONVILLE (2-14)
Indianapolis by 15.5; O/U: 44
It’s win-&-Indy for the Colts, so expect them to run wild against a Jaguars team that has lost eight in a row and can’t wait for this season to be over. The only thing to worry about is the backdoor cover, but Jacksonville just lost, 50-10, at New England, it likely won’t even be an issue.
The pick: Indianapolis
TENNESSEE (11-5) AT HOUSTON (4-12)
Tennessee by 10; O/U: 43
The Titans have double motivation: No. 1, well, the No. 1 seed. If Tennessee wins, it gets home field for the AFC playoffs. If that’s not enough, the Texans embarrassed them in Tennessee, a 22-13 shocker back in Week 11.
The pick: Tennessee
CINCINNATI (10-6) AT CLEVELAND (7-9)
Cleveland by 6; O/U: 38
Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield are both out, so who knows what will happen in this game? Sit it out like them, but if you must make a pick, take the points. The Bengals’ backups will play hard with the postseason a week away.
The pick: Cincinnati
PITTSBURGH (8-7-1) AT BALTIMORE (8-8)
Baltimore by 6; O/U: 41.5
Both need to win and get help to make the playoffs. Expect a close game like their first meeting, a 20-19 Steelers comeback in Week 13 when John Harbaugh went for 2 and didn’t get it. The Ravens’ five-game losing streak started in that game. It wouldn’t shock me if they snapped it here, but the spread seems a tad high for a great rivalry game.
The pick: Pittsburgh
GREEN BAY (13-3) AT DETROIT (2-13-1)
Green Bay by 3.5; O/U: 44.5
Green Bay laying under a TD against Detroit? That would usually be the steal of the week, but this isn’t your average week. The Packers have clinched the NFC’s 1 seed, so it’s unclear how long they’ll play Aaron Rodgers and starters. Maybe a half? Considering the Lions have been a winner ATS all season, let’s take them one last time and hope they show up.
The pick: Detroit
CHICAGO (6-10) AT MINNESOTA (7-9)
Minnesota by 5.5; O/U: 44.5
Kirk Cousins will be back, and Chicago won’t have the same success against the guys in purple like it did last week against Big Blue. The Vikings won the first matchup, 17-9 (it was 17-3 till a last-second TD) on MNF just three weeks ago.
The pick: Minnesota
4 P.M. GAMES
JETS (4-12) AT BUFFALO (10-6)
Buffalo by 16.5; O/U: 41.5
The Bills are AFC East champs with a win, so expect them to be focused. They won the first matchup, 45-17, in Week 10. I’ll take a shot that the Jets are more competitive this time. They had the defending champs on the ropes last week, have shown some fight from time to time and you have to think Zach Wilson and a young team will want to end Robert Saleh’s first year with a valiant effort.
The pick: Jets
NEW ENGLAND (10-6) AT MIAMI (8-8)
New England by 6.5; O/U: 40
Miami hasn’t had this weird of a season since Ace Ventura! The Dolphins started with a one-point win at New England, then lost seven in a row before becoming the first NFL team to follow up a seven-game losing streak with a seven-game winning streak. The good vibes got crushed last Sunday in Tennessee, as did Miami’s playoff chances. Still, Brian Flores’ bunch won’t quit against a division rival so I expect a close game.
The pick: Miami
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CAROLINA (5-11) AT TAMPA BAY (12-4)
Tampa Bay by 8; O/U: 41.5
This one is simple: Since Tom Brady has joined the Bucs, this NFC South rivalry has been one-sided: Bucs 31-17, Bucs 46-23, Bucs 32-6. That last score was just two weeks ago. Tampa Bay will use this as a tune-up for next week’s playoff opener as it begins its title defense.
The pick: Tampa Bay
NEW ORLEANS (8-8) AT ATLANTA (7-9)
New Orleans by 4; O/U: 40
The Saints can still make the playoffs while the Falcons are out of it, but this is a division rivalry so expect a close one. Atlanta won the first matchup, 27-25, in Week 9, and this could be another down-to-the-wire finish.
The pick: Atlanta
SAN FRANCISCO (9-7) AT L.A. RAMS (12-4)
L.A. by 4; O/U: 44.5
The Rams are NFC West champs with a win or Cardinals loss. This won’t be easy, not against a 49ers team that also needs to win to clinch a wild-card spot. San Francisco dominated the first matchup, a 31-10 win on MNF in Week 10. The Rams have won five in a row to get their season back on track, but they have a five-game losing streak against the 49ers. Even if they snap it, the spread should come into play.
The pick: San Francisco
SEATTLE (6-10) AT ARIZONA (11-5)
Arizona by 6.5; O/U: 48
The Cardinals need to win and have the Rams lose to win the NFC West. If not, they’ll stay the 5 seed. Colt McCoy and Arizona won at Seattle, 23-13, in Week 11. Even with Kyler Murray playing this time, I expect a much closer game. If this is Russell Wilson’s final game in Seattle, he won’t want his lasting memory to be a dud.
The pick: Seattle
