Week 17 is brought to you by your favorite headache medicine. Why? Well, in addition to being the second-most difficult week of the season to predict (we’ll see you in September, Week 1), there are so many different scenarios for the playoffs that your brain will need to call a timeout. Motivation and desperation are everything this week.
Favorites went 7-8-1 ATS last week and are 106-121-8 for the season. Home teams went 9-7 straight up and 8-7-1 ATS, bringing their totals to 118-121-1 and 112-120-8.
My three most confident picks are Buffalo, the L.A. Chargers and Indianapolis. Avoid Minnesota-Detroit and Las Vegas-Denver.
(Note: All playoff scenarios courtesy of NFL.com)
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GAMES WITH NFC PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS
DALLAS (6-9) AT GIANTS (5-10)
Dallas by 1; O/U: 44.5
Scenario: Giants clinch NFC East title with win + Washington loss; Dallas clinches NFC East title with win + Washington loss or tie OR Dallas tie + Washington loss.
If the Giants win and then get in with an assist from the Eagles, it wouldn’t shock me. But Big Blue’s offense has been Big Blah the last three weeks (7, 6 and 13 points) and Daniel Jones clearly isn’t 100%. Dallas’ three-game win streak consists of 30, 41 and 37 points.
The pick: Dallas
WASHINGTON (6-9) AT PHILADELPHIA (4-10-1)
Washington by 2; O/U: 43.5
Scenario: Washington clinches NFC East title with win OR Washington tie + Dallas loss or tie.
Like the other NFC East matchup, I don’t have a good read on this game. Philadelphia should be motivated to keep a rival out, but at the same time, it’s also helping the Cowboys or Giants. Washington likely will have to go with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, but it’s Chase Young and the defense that will deliver a division title in a low-scoring defensive slugfest.
The pick: Washington
ARIZONA (8-7) AT L.A. RAMS (9-6)
Arizona by 3;; O/U: 40.5
Scenario: Cardinals clinch playoff berth with win OR tie + Bears loss; Rams clinch playoff berth with win or tie OR Bears loss or tie.
I really, really want to take the Rams because Sean McVay owns the Cards (7-0 against them), but the proverbial cards are stacked against the Rams. No Jared Goff, no Cooper Kupp and likely down two running backs. Kyler Murray is a little banged-up himself, but he’s playing. If Arizona can’t beat L.A. under these circumstances, it will never beat McVay.
The pick: Arizona
GREEN BAY (12-3) AT CHICAGO (8-7)
Green Bay by 5.5; O/U: 51
Scenario: Bears clinch playoff berth with win OR Cardinals loss OR Bears tie + Cardinals tie; Packers clinch 1 seed with win or tie OR Seahawks loss or tie.
The Bears have won three in a row, but it was against the Vikings, Texans and Jaguars. Those teams have a combined 11 wins, one fewer than the Packers. Let’s see how they fare against Aaron Rodgers, who is 19-5 vs. Chicago, including a 41-25 win in Week 12.
The pick: Green Bay
NEW ORLEANS (11-4) AT CAROLINA (5-10)
New Orleans by 6.5; O/U: 47.5
Scenario: Saints clinch 1 seed with a win + Packers loss + Seahawks win
Carolina (9-4 ATS after an 0-2 start) has been in all but one game, including a 27-24 loss at New Orleans in Week 7. Matt Rhule has gotten a lot out of his team in his first year and it wouldn’t shock me one bit if the Panthers won outright.
The pick: Carolina
SEATTLE (11-4) AT SAN FRANCISCO (6-9)
Seattle by 6.5; O/U: 46
Scenario: Seahawks clinch 1 seed with win + Packers loss + Saints loss or tie
There’s no drama like last year’s regular-season finale nightcap, when San Francisco literally wrapped up the NFC West title and 1 seed on a goal-line tackle. The defending NFC champs have had a long, injury-filled season and are out of it. Seattle’s defense has been much improved, allowing 17, 17, 3, 15 and 9 points in the last five games.
The pick: Seattle
ATLANTA (4-11) AT TAMPA BAY (10-5)
Tampa Bay by 7; O/U: 50.5
Scenario: Bucs clinch NFC’s fifth seed with win.
The Falcons were super close to beating the defending champs at Kansas City last week, and they’ve been a feisty bunch. But Tom Brady will want to enter the postseason on a high note and for once, he won’t have to rally against Atlanta.
The pick: Tampa Bay
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GAMES WITH AFC PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS
TENNESSEE (10-5) AT HOUSTON (4-11)
Tennessee by 7.5; O/U: 56.5
Scenario: Titans clinch AFC South title with win OR Colts loss OR Titans tie + Colts tie; Titans clinch playoff berth with Ravens loss OR Dolphins loss OR Titans tie + Browns loss or more tie scenarios.
Tennessee finds itself in a similar spot as last year’s finale, when Derrick Henry ran the Titans into the playoffs with a 211-yard day in a 35-14 win at Houston. Henry rumbled for 212 yards against the Texans in Week 6, a 42-36 overtime win. Deshaun Watson will keep this close early, but he doesn’t play defense, and Henry should have another big day (how’s 210 yards sound?) with so much on the line.
The pick: Tennessee
JACKSONVILLE (1-14) AT INDIANAPOLIS (10-5)
Indianapolis by 14; O/U: 49.5
Scenario: Colts clinch AFC South title with win + Titans loss or tie OR Colts tie + Titans loss; Colts clinch playoff berth with win + Ravens loss or tie OR win + Browns loss or tie OR win + Dolphins loss or tie (or tie scenarios)
If there was an award for funniest NFL-related tweet before the season, I’d be in the running for my, "Want to win your survivor pool? Pick against Jacksonville every week" advice. It’s been a winning strategy . . . if the season started in Week 2! That’s because before the Jags lost 14 in a row, they somehow beat the Colts in the opener. Now, Jacksonville’s tank is empty and the Colts will put it into overdrive after hurting their playoff hopes last week with a 28-24 loss at Pittsburgh in which they led 24-7. Vegas can’t make this line high enough.
The pick: Indianapolis
BALTIMORE (10-5) AT CINCINNATI (4-10-1)
Baltimore by 13; O/U: 44.5
Scenario: Ravens clinch playoff berth with a win OR Browns loss OR Colts loss (or tie scenarios)
Baltimore beat Cincinnati, 27-3, back in Week 5. Lamar Jackson and this offense are heating up at the right time (34, 47, 40 and 27 points during a four-game win streak), and this should be another runaway.
The pick: Baltimore
PITTSBURGH (12-3) AT CLEVELAND (10-5)
Cleveland by 10; O/U: 42.5
Scenario: Browns clinch playoff berth with a win OR Colts loss OR Titans loss + Dolphins win or tie + Ravens win or tie (or more tie scenarios); Pittsburgh can jump Buffalo for the 2 seed if it wins and Buffalo loses.
From the playoff implications to Mason Rudolph vs. Myles Garrett Part Deux, this game has more storylines than an episode of "All My Children." Ben Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 all time against the Browns, so the Steelers resting him is a huge break for Cleveland. The Brownies end their playoff drought (2002 season), but don’t expect it to be a cakewalk.
The pick: Pittsburgh
LOCK OF THE WEEK
MIAMI (10-5) AT BUFFALO (12-3)
Buffalo by 3; O/U: 43
Scenario: Dolphins clinch playoff berth with a win OR Ravens loss OR Browns loss OR Colts loss (or tie scenarios); Bills clinch 2 seed with a win OR Steelers loss.
This game means more to the Dolphins, but Josh Allen and the Bills are on a roll right now. If not for the "Hail Murray" in Arizona, Buffalo is on a nine-game win streak. With a shot to wrap up the second seed and a chance to help KO a division rival, expect Buffalo to stay hot.
The pick: Buffalo
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GAMES WITH NO PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS
JETS (2-13) AT NEW ENGLAND (6-9)
New England by 3; O/U: 39.5
Are the Jets really going to finish on a three-game win streak after an 0-13 start? That would be so 2020, but this game is on the first Sunday in 2021. After New England’s lopsided loss to Buffalo on MNF, expect the Pats to respond and avoid a double-digit loss season. Bill Belichick, the old HC, always enjoys beating the NYJ.
The pick: Patriots
MINNESOTA (6-9) AT DETROIT (5-10)
Minnesota by 7; O/U: 54
If Matthew Stafford can play, this could be his last game in Detroit. Also, is Minnesota good enough to be this big of a road favorite with nothing on the line?
The pick: Detroit
L.A. CHARGERS (6-9) AT KANSAS CITY (14-1)
Los Angeles by 3.5; O/U: 44
Kansas City is locked in as the AFC’s 1 seed and won’t play Patrick Mahomes. The Bolts will get a jolt if they can finish Justin Herbert’s record-breaking rookie season on a four-game win streak. Don’t forget: One of the Chargers’ many close losses was a 23-20 overtime defeat to KC in Week 2.
The pick: Los Angeles
LAS VEGAS (7-8) AT DENVER (5-10)
Las Vegas by 2.5; O/U: 51
This is a toss-up, but Derek Carr and Gruden’s Grinders figure to be motivated to finish 8-8.
The pick: Las Vegas
