Sunday is a new year, and while the 2022 season isn't over yet, 2023 brings with it newfound optimism for some teams fighting for a playoff spot. Teams like the Jets and Packers have real chances to play in mid-January after it appeared they had dropped the ball one too many times. With a number of games having playoff implications, expect a lot of close contests.
Underdogs went 8-8 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 127-107-6.
My most confident picks ATS are Philadelphia, the L.A. Rams, San Francisco and the Jets. Be careful with Minnesota-Green Bay and stay away from Cleveland-Washington.
GAME OF THE WEEK
BUFFALO (12-3) AT CINCINNATI (11-4)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m. Monday
Buffalo by 1.5; O/U: 49.5
This could be a preview of the AFC divisional round, and the result could determine if the rematch will be in Buffalo or Cincinnati. This is a toss-up between two of the NFL’s top 5 teams. The Bengals have been on a roll, winning and covering seven straight games. They’re an NFL-best 12-3, and including last year’s playoff run, have covered in 16 of their last 19 games. That featured two wins against Kansas City, so don’t think Joe Burrow, & Co. can’t beat Josh Allen and Buffalo. The Bengals are legit, but don’t seem to get enough respect. They could use that as motivation on a national stage. Buffalo has won six in a row (3-3 ATS) but isn’t dominant and will have its hands full with Ja'Marr Chase. This is an even matchup, and Cincinnati should probably be the slight home favorite.
The pick: Cincinnati
1 P.M. GAMES
INDIANAPOLIS (4-10-1) AT GIANTS (8-6-1)
Giants by 5.5; O/U: 38.5
It’s win-&-in for the Giants and considering “win” and “Indy” are two words that haven’t been in the same sentence often this season, let the playoff planning begin. The only question for this column’s purposes is the point spread. The Giants don’t blow teams out, so if they win by 3 or 4 it wouldn’t shock me. But I’ll lay the points with a hungry Giants team against a reeling Colts team that has lost five in a row and last week had as many Nick Foles interceptions as points (3). Plus, the Giants are 4-0 against AFC teams, including 3-0 vs. the AFC South.
The pick: Giants
CAROLINA (6-9) AT TAMPA BAY (7-8)
Tampa Bay by 3; O/U: 40.5
The Panthers’ 21-3 win over the Bucs in Week 7 felt like such a huge shocker. Now, we know it wasn’t. Tampa Bay is the NFL’s biggest underachiever. Carolina is playing hard for interim coach Steve Wilks, and all the pressure is on Tom Brady and the favorites in what is basically a battle for the NFC South title. The Panthers already know they can beat the Bucs and won’t be afraid of the moment.
The pick: Carolina
LOCK OF THE WEEK
NEW ORLEANS (6-9) AT PHILADELPHIA (13-2)
Philadelphia by 6.5; O/U: 42.5
Whether it’s Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew quarterbacking the hosts, expect the Eagles to fly up and down the field as they clinch the NFC East and the 1 seed in the playoffs. The Eagles are 6-1 at home (straight up and ATS) and have poured it on at times. This feels like another one-sided matchup against a Saints team that technically still has a shot to win the woeful NFC South but has looked out of it all season.
The pick: Philadelphia
CLEVELAND (6-9) AT WASHINGTON (7-7-1)
Washington by 1.5; O/U: 40.5
The Commanders are going back to Carson Wentz to jump-start their playoff push after two straight losses. The Browns are out of it, but like Wentz, they’re unpredictable. When in doubt, take the team playing for something.
The pick: Washington
MIAMI (8-7) AT NEW ENGLAND (7-8)
New England by 2.5; O/U: 41.5
You think Jets fans will be interested in this game? Teddy Bridgewater starts for Miami as Tua Tagovailoa is out with a concussion. New England’s offense is so dysfunctional, I can’t trust it even in this spot. Bridgewater has a good track record ATS as a starter: 42-22 overall and 24-7 on the road.
The pick: Miami
JACKSONVILLE (7-8) AT HOUSTON (2-12-1)
Jacksonville by 4; O/U: 43.5
If you think this is an easy pick, think again. First, the game means little to Jacksonville, which win or lose must beat Tennessee in Week 18 to win the AFC South. Might the Jaguars sit players to avoid injuries? Then there’s the fact that, for whatever reason, Houston owns Jacksonville. The Texans won the Week 5 meeting, 13-6, and have won nine in a row in the series (28-13 overall).
The pick: Houston
DENVER (4-11) AT KANSAS CITY (12-3)
Kansas City by 12.5; O/U: 44.5
When these two teams met in Week 14, Kansas City was my lock as 9.5-point favorites. It jumped out to a 27-0 lead only to hold on for a 34-28 win and non-cover. Let this be an example that you can’t let previous bad luck get in the way of the current pick. The Broncos just fired Nathaniel Hackett after a 51-14 loss at the Rams and won’t have any interest chasing Patrick Mahomes (10-0 vs. Denver) and Travis Kelce all day.
The pick: Kansas City
CHICAGO (3-12) AT DETROIT (7-8)
Detroit by 6; O/U: 52.5
Detroit should get back on track at home after getting gashed for 320 rushing yards at Carolina. Still, it won’t be easy, as Justin Fields and Chicago ran for 258 yards in the first meeting, a 31-30 Detroit win in Week 10.
The pick: Chicago
ARIZONA (4-11) AT ATLANTA (5-10)
Atlanta by 3; O/U: 42.5
In a toss-up game between two teams playing for nothing, look for something: Oh, maybe J.J. Watt’s retirement news could provide the visitors with added motivation?
The pick: Arizona
4 P.M. GAMES
JETS (7-8) AT SEATTLE (7-8)
Jets by 1.5; O/U: 41.5
Hello, and welcome back to the Jets’ 2022 roller-coaster ride. Last week it felt as if it was all but over, and then the big twist: everything broke the Jets’ way and now they have a clear path to the playoffs by winning out and having the Patriots lose once. But wait, there’s more: Mike White is operating this ride again, and the Jets’ offense should get a big jolt after going in reverse with Zach Wilson. Geno Smith surely would enjoy beating his old team, and the Seahawks are fighting for a wild-card spot, too, but Seattle’s defense has been spiraling downward for weeks and you just know this Jets’ season is destined for a winner-take-all final stop in Miami.
The pick: Jets
MINNESOTA (12-3) AT GREEN BAY (7-8)
Green Bay by 3; O/U: 48.5
Minnesota is 11-0 in one-score games. The one win that wasn’t close? Yep, the 23-7 season opener against Green Bay. The Packers have saved their best for last, winning three in a row to give themselves a real shot at making the playoffs. Check this out: Green Bay has won 16 straight December games dating back to 2019. I like the Pack to win here but considering all the Vikings do is play close games, a three-point finish feels inevitable. If the spread was 3.5, I’d have taken the points.
The pick: Green Bay
LAS VEGAS (6-9) AT SAN FRANCISCO (11-4)
San Francisco by 9.5; O/U: 41.5
This spread nearly doubled after news of Derek Carr’s benching. He should be thankful he doesn’t have to face this San Francisco defense. The 49ers have won eight in a row (covering seven of those, including the last six) and there’s no reason to fade them as they eye the NFC’s 2 seed.
The pick: San Francisco
L.A. RAMS (5-10) AT L.A. CHARGERS (9-6)
L.A. Chargers by 6.5; O/U: 42.5
Finally, an L.A. home game with only Rams or Chargers jerseys in the stands. This SoFi Stadium battle is interesting because Chargers coach Brandon Staley used to be the Rams’ defensive coordinator under Sean McVay. The Chargers just clinched a wild-card spot and the Rams are out of it, but I have a feeling McVay & Co. will be into this L.A. rivalry and we’ll get a close one.
The pick: L.A. Rams
SUNDAY NIGHT
PITTSBURGH (7-8) AT BALTIMORE (10-5)
Baltimore by 2.5; O/U: 35.5
This game was flexed into SNF, and even though the Steelers could be eliminated from playoff contention with a Dolphins win earlier in the day, the NFL’s best rivalry always makes for fun TV. The Ravens won the first meeting, 16-14, in Week 14, as Mitchell Trubisky replaced Kenny Pickett and threw three picks. Expect another low-scoring defensive struggle. Like I wrote last week, I’m picking Pittsburgh until Mike Tomlin officially has his first losing season.
The pick: Pittsburgh
