For those of you who watch NFL RedZone every week, it feels like Christmas, doesn't it? Well, this week, it actually will be. There's a full Sunday-type slate of games on Christmas Eve on Saturday, followed by three on Christmas Day and then MNF. More games than not have playoff implications, so as is always the case this time of year, look for motivation as teams are fighting to clinch a spot or stay in the hunt.
Underdogs went 9-6-1 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 119-99-6.
My most confident picks ATS are Detroit, Philadelphia and the Giants. Stay away from Denver-L.A. Rams.
SATURDAY’S 1 P.M. GAMES
GIANTS (8-5-1) AT MINNESOTA (11-3)
Minnesota by 3.5; O/U: 47.5
If we were to assign nicknames to each game on this holiday weekend, a la college football, this would be the “One-Score” Bowl. The Vikings are an incredible 11-0 in one-score games. The Giants are 8-2-1. Minnesota is off the biggest comeback in NFL history, rallying from 33 down to stun Indianapolis, 39-36, in OT. Impressive, but let’s not forget the 33-0 hole. The Giants enter off their best win of the year and will be able to move the chains with Saquon Barkley and short passes against the Vikings’ soft defense. This game will come down to whether the Giants can contain Justin Jefferson enough. Their secondary is the weak spot, but if Kayvon Thibodeaux and the pass rush can rattle Kirk Cousins, look out. Expect Wink Martindale’s game plan to be the difference as the Giants steal one. Merry Blitz-mas!
The pick: Giants
BUFFALO (11-3) AT CHICAGO (3-11)
Buffalo by 8.5; O/U: 40.5
Last week, the Bears were 9-point underdogs at home to the Eagles and I wrote that the possibility of a backdoor cover did concern me, but not enough. Right on cue, Chicago scored a late TD to cover in a 25-20 loss. This is a similar scenario. Buffalo is off a prime-time win in which it clinched the division against a rival and next week plays at Cincinnati on Monday night. A trip to 3-11 Chicago is the epitome of a trap game, and Buffalo backers will fall right into the hole when Justin Fields leads another late TD drive to earn the cover.
The pick: Chicago
CINCINNATI (10-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (7-7)
Cincinnati by 3; O/U: 41.5
The Bengals have won six in a row (all covers) to take over the AFC North lead. The Patriots, like that disastrous last-second lateral, are going backward. This will be close as the Pats are desperate to stay in the playoff conversation, and the Bengals may have an eye toward next week’s MNF game with the Bills, but I can’t talk myself into taking this Pats team.
The pick: Cincinnati
SEATTLE (7-7) AT KANSAS CITY (11-3)
Kansas City by 10; O/U: 49.5
Kansas City (5-9 ATS) again failed to cover a big number last week and needed overtime to escape one-win Houston. Still, Seattle has lost four of five, its defense isn’t playing well and if Patrick Mahomes & Co. jump out to a 14-0 lead, I don’t want to be playing catch-up all day.
The pick: Kansas City
HOUSTON (1-12-1) AT TENNESSEE (7-7)
Tennessee by 3.5; O/U: 35.5
The Titans won the first meeting, 17-10, without Ryan Tannehill. They won’t have him this time, either, and will need to lean on Derrick Henry to snap a four-game skid. Tennessee has to win this game, right? Right?
The pick: Tennessee
LOCK OF THE WEEK
DETROIT (7-7) AT CAROLINA (5-9)
Detroit by 2.5; O/U: 43.5
Don’t look now but the Lions are making the playoffs. They’ve covered seven straight during their 6-1 stretch and if not for a three-point loss to Buffalo on Thanksgiving they’d be on a seven-game win streak. In years past, Detroit never would have been on the right side of a game like last week’s 20-17 win over the Jets. Dan Campbell gets the most out of his players, Detroit is loaded with playmakers and its offensive play-calling is creative and gutsy. Yes, Jared Goff isn’t hot in cold weather, but he will do enough. Not even my “lock of the week” curse (I’ve lost six in a row) can stop these Lions.
The pick: Detroit
ATLANTA (5-9) AT BALTIMORE (9-5)
Baltimore by 6.5; O/U: 35.5
No matter who starts at quarterback for the Ravens, expect a low-scoring game with both teams sticking to the run. Baltimore has played too many close games for me to believe it will just flip a switch and roll here.
The pick: Atlanta
NEW ORLEANS (5-9) AT CLEVELAND (6-8)
Cleveland by 2.5; O/U: 32.5
Both teams still have a shot at the playoffs, albeit slim. It’s going to be super cold in Cleveland, which doesn't bode well for the Superdome team. The Browns’ run game does enough to churn out a low-scoring win.
The pick: Cleveland
SATURDAY’S 4 P.M. GAMES
PHILADELPHIA (13-1) AT DALLAS (10-4)
Dallas by 4; O/U: 47.5
This game lost some hype with the Jalen Hurts injury news. Dallas’ loss at Jacksonville also hurt it because the Eagles need only one win in their last three to clinch home field for the playoffs. When these teams met in Week 6, a 26-17 Eagles win, Dallas played its backup quarterback. Now the tables have turned. Gardner Minshew is one of the more capable backups in the league, though, and with Philadelphia having one of the most complete rosters, there won’t be as huge of a drop-off as you might think. You can expect a more concentrated effort from Dallas in this rivalry matchup than you saw in last week’s meltdown at Jacksonville and the week before, when it barely escaped one-win Houston at home. Still, this spread is an overreaction to the Hurts injury. Dallas is missing some key players on defense, too. You think the Eagles will be motivated to clinch the NFC East title and the 1 seed on their rival’s home field? Minshew leads the “upset” win.
The pick: Philadelphia
WASHINGTON (7-6-1) AT SAN FRANCISCO (10-4)
San Francisco by 7; O/U: 37.5
The way the 49ers are playing (seven wins a row, 6-1 ATS), it’s easy to pick them every week. This feels a couple points too high, though. Washington is fighting to stay in the playoff hunt and 24-20 seems more likely than a blowout.
The pick: Washington
SATURDAY NIGHT
LAS VEGAS (6-8) AT PITTSBURGH (6-8)
TV: NFL Network, 8:15 p.m.
Pittsburgh by 2.5; O/U: 38.5
It was already going to be an emotional night in Pittsburgh as the Steelers celebrate the 50-year anniversary of “The Immaculate Reception.” Now they’ll be celebrating the life of Franco Harris, who passed away this week. The Raiders enter off their own incredible game-ending win after the Patriots’ misguided last-second lateral. In a charged-up atmosphere, I like T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense to get the best of Derek Carr. I’ll keep picking Pittsburgh until Mike Tomlin officially has his first losing season.
The pick: Pittsburgh
SUNDAY’S GAMES
GREEN BAY (6-8) AT MIAMI (8-6)
TV: Fox, 1 p.m.
Miami by 3.5; O/U: 49.5
This should be a fun one with a lot of points. Let’s put a bow on this Christmas Day opener nice and simply: The Packers are playing better, and with both teams needing the game, getting three-plus points feels as if it’s the automatic side.
The pick: Green Bay
DENVER (4-10) AT L.A. RAMS (4-10)
TV: CBS, 4:30 p.m.
Denver by 3; O/U: 36.5
If your family wants to carve out a three-hour window to watch a Christmas movie or two, do it during this game. Why watch? Why bet? Why is Denver favored?
The pick: L.A. Rams
TAMPA BAY (6-8) AT ARIZONA (4-10)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Tampa Bay by 8; O/U: 39.5
This is a lot of points to lay on the road with an underachieving, undisciplined Bucs team, but Arizona third-string quarterback Trace McSorley is making his first NFL start. Plus, if Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans lose on Saturday, Tampa Bay will have extra motivation to all but lock up the NFC South win a win.
The pick: Tampa Bay
MONDAY NIGHT
L.A. CHARGERS (8-6) AT INDIANAPOLIS (4-9-1)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Los Angeles by 4.5; O/U: 45.5
Oh, look: The Colts are in another standalone game. That’s the last place they want to be after blowing a 33-0 lead at Minnesota last week. Justin Herbert and the Chargers never make things easy, but roll with the team that’s playing for something.
The pick: L.A. Chargers
