Playoff implications. Get used to those two words because you’ll be hearing them often over the next month. From Ravens-Browns in the AFC North to Rams-Cardinals in the NFC West and a couple others in between, this week’s games could go a long way in determining who’s playing in the middle of January.
Underdogs went 6-8 against the spread (ATS) last week but still have a big lead for the season at 102-89-2.
My three most confident picks ATS this week are Washington, Tampa Bay and Seattle. There’s no true "stay-away" game but be careful with Atlanta-Carolina and Baltimore-Cleveland.
GAME OF THE WEEK
L.A. RAMS (8-4) AT ARIZONA (10-2)
Monday night
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Arizona by 2; O/U: 51.5
When these two teams met in Week 4, I was confident the Rams would continue their dominance against the Cardinals. Sean McVay had been 8-0 (straight up and ATS) against the NFC West rivals. Of course, Arizona went out and put on a show in a 37-20 win at L.A. The Cardinals are 7-0 on the road but just 3-2 at home. Arizona just got Kyler Murray back, and have been the better team all season. The Rams snapped a three-game skid by beating the lowly Jaguars, and this is a huge step up in class. The eye test says Arizona will win but I’m going with the gut on this one: One loss can’t make me forget about the previous success the Rams have had in this series. In their last MNF game, the Rams got run over by the 49ers. This feels like a statement game for a veteran group with a ton of talent and a chance for the Rams to make things interesting atop the NFC West.
The pick: L.A. Rams
1 P.M. GAMES
LOCK OF THE WEEK
DALLAS (8-4) AT WASHINGTON (6-6)
Dallas by 4; O/U: 48
A few weeks ago, this game didn’t look as if it would matter but now it sure does. If Washington runs its win streak to five games, look out. Dallas has lost three of five after a 6-1 start and doesn’t look as unbeatable as it did earlier. The most likely result of this game is either Dallas by 3 or Washington by 3, so getting any points over that feels like a steal (famous last words, I know). Give me Taylor Heinicke to lead a fourth-quarter winning drive again as the NFC East race tightens up.
The pick: Washington
NEW ORLEANS (5-7) AT JETS (3-9)
TV: CBS, 1 p.m.
New Orleans by 5.5; O/U: 43
C.J. Mosley and the Jets felt disrespected by the Eagles last week. Wonder what Mosley thought when he saw this point spread. The Jets are again significant underdogs at home, and this to a Saints team on a five-game losing streak starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Ouch! If the Jets can’t keep this close, I never want to hear them complain again. While last week’s Jets pick turned out to be ill-advised, this is just too many points to lay on the road with a New Orleans offense that has been a mess.
The pick: Jets
LAS VEGAS (6-6) AT KANSAS CITY (8-4)
Kansas City by 9.5; O/U: 47.5
Kansas City has won five in a row, mostly because of its defense (17, 7, 14, 9 and 9 points allowed). The one game when Patrick Mahomes and the offense clicked was at Las Vegas in Week 10, a 41-14 win on SNF in which Mahomes threw for 400-plus yards and 5 TDs. The Raiders won, 40-32, at KC last year, but that works against them here as the hosts will want a little more payback.
The pick: Kansas City
BALTIMORE (8-4) AT CLEVELAND (6-6)
Cleveland by 2.5; O/U: 43
This is back-to-back Ravens games for the Browns, who were on a bye last week after losing, 16-10, at Baltimore. That could benefit the hosts, who must realize this is a must-win game. Lamar Jackson is 5-2 against Cleveland, and Baker Mayfield is 2-5 against Baltimore, so history says to side with the Ravens. But Baltimore, already banged-up, lost another starting cornerback last week. This feels like a backs-against-the-wall spot for the Browns (similar to the Steelers last week) and they’ll find a way to eke out a low-scoring win.
The pick: Cleveland
JACKSONVILLE (2-10) AT TENNESSEE (8-4)
Tennessee by 8.5; O/U: 43.5
The bye arrived at the right time for Tennessee, which figures to be regrouped and focused after back-to-back losses. The Titans won, 37-19, at Jacksonville in Week 5 and even without Derrick Henry, should play with enough purpose to cover this big number.
The pick: Tennessee
ATLANTA (5-7) AT CAROLINA (5-7)
Carolina by 2.5; O/U: 42.5
The Panthers fired their offensive coordinator during the bye week. Sometimes that can provide a spark. Carolina won at Atlanta, 19-13, in Week 8.
The pick: Carolina
SEATTLE (4-8) AT HOUSTON (2-10)
Seattle by 8.5; O/U: 41.5
Russell Wilson is at his best in December (29-13) and will light up a Texans team that has losses by 40, 31 (last week), 28, 26, 16 and 15. What’s the point in taking the points?
The pick: Seattle
4 P.M. GAMES
GIANTS (4-8) AT L.A. CHARGERS (7-5)
TV: Fox, 4:05 p.m.
L.A. by 9.5; O/U: 43
Sometimes a team rallies around a backup quarterback, but what about when it’s the third-stringer they just signed a couple weeks ago? The Giants may have to start Jake Fromm, a star at Georgia but an unknown in the NFL. Big Blue is 1-5 on the road, and in the last three trips have scored 17, 10 and 9 points. The Chargers are one of the league’s biggest enigmas, so who knows which team will show up. Off a big win at Cincinnati and needing this game to stay in the AFC West/wild-card playoff picture, you have to think L.A. will handle its business at home.
The pick: L.A. Chargers
BUFFALO (7-5) AT TAMPA BAY (9-3)
TV: CBS
Tampa Bay by 3; O/U: 53.5
The last time Buffalo allowed a team to run all over it at home (41-15 Colts in Week 11), it bounced back with a big road win at New Orleans. Don’t expect the same outcome. Six days after letting the Patriots run for 222 yards (and losing despite Mac Jones attempting just three passes!), the Bills must stop Tom Brady and all his weapons. Brady is 32-3 all-time vs. Buffalo from his dynasty days in New England. The Bills won’t have any answers for him or Leonard Fournette. Tampa Bay is 5-0 at home, with covers in its last four.
The pick: Tampa Bay
SAN FRANCISCO (6-6) AT CINCINNATI (7-5)
San Francisco by 1.5; O/U: 48.5
This matchup makes me think of Joe Montana, John Taylor and . . . John Candy (Google it, kids). This won’t be as exciting as that Super Bowl but another close finish seems likely with both in the playoff mix. It’s a toss-up, hence the spread, but Joe Burrow’s dislocated pinkie finger is not ideal.
The pick: San Francisco
DETROIT (1-10-1) AT DENVER (6-6)
Denver by 10; O/U: 42.5
Never thought I’d write this, but is the letdown factor in play for the Lions? Last week was Detroit’s Super Bowl, a last-second, 29-27 finish over Minnesota to finally secure its first win. The Lions have been a great bet ATS (8-4), but Denver’s defense has delivered in home wins, allowing 0, 10 and 13 points. Play the under.
The pick: Denver
SUNDAY NIGHT
CHICAGO (4-8) AT GREEN BAY (9-3)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Green Bay by 11.5; O/U: 43
When Aaron Rodgers ran in a TD at Chicago in a 24-14 win in Week 6, he shouted, "I still own you!" It’s true: Rodgers is 21-5 all-time vs. the Bears, with 57 TD passes to just 10 INTs. Rested off the bye, expect Green Bay to dominate. Also, how could you not lay the nearly 12 points with No. 12 on 12/12?
The pick: Green Bay
