Thanksgiving sure sneaks up on us, right? The same could be said for the stretch run of the NFL season, as you’ll be seeing lots of “who’s in” playoff graphics over the next month-plus. There are no byes this week, with a full slate of 16 games. Only one of the non-Thanksgiving Day games features two teams with winning records.
Underdogs went 7-6-1 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 88-71-5.
My most confident picks ATS are Tampa Bay, Miami and Seattle. Stay away from Denver-Carolina and Baltimore-Jacksonville.
1 p.m. GAMES
CHICAGO (3-8) AT JETS (6-4)
TV: Fox
Jets by 6; O/U: 38.5
The Jets scored three points last week and had two offensive yards in the second half, so you should pick against them this week, right? To steal a line from Zach Wilson, “No. No.” Even if Wilson wasn’t benched for Mike White, I’d pick the Jets. This is about an elite Jets defense catching the Bears at the right time, as electric quarterback Justin Fields is banged-up and may not play. With games at Minnesota and Buffalo up next, the Jets know they can’t afford to lose this one. Just how bad is this Bears defense? Chicago has scored 29, 32, 30 and 24 points the last four weeks . . . and lost all four games. The Jets haven’t lost to a team not named New England since Sept. 25.
The pick: Jets
GAME OF THE WEEK
CINCINNATI (6-4) AT TENNESSEE (7-3)
Cincinnati by 2.5; O/U: 43.5
In last season’s divisional round of the playoffs, Cincinnati knocked off top-seeded Tennessee, 19-16, despite Joe Burrow being sacked nine times. This should be another close one between two AFC contenders. I lean Tennessee because coach Mike Vrabel has shown time and time again he thrives in an underdog role. The Titans aren’t flashy, but they get the job done with a heavy dose of Derrick Henry and sound defense. After an 0-2 start, the Titans have won seven of eight with the lone loss an overtime defeat at Kansas City in which they had to play their backup quarterback. They’re also on an 8-0 run ATS.
The pick: Tennessee
HOUSTON (1-8-1) AT MIAMI (7-3)
Miami by 14; O/U: 46.5
Double-digit favorites are 3-9 ATS. Don’t let that stop you from backing the Dolphins, who scored 31, 35 and 39 points in their last three wins before the bye week. This final score should resemble Miami’s last home game (39-17 over the Browns in Week 10). When Tua Tagovailoa starts AND finishes a game this year, Miami is 7-0 (6-1 ATS).
The pick: Miami
BALTIMORE (7-3) AT JACKSONVILLE (3-7)
Baltimore by 4; O/U: 43.5
I can’t figure either of these teams out, but if you look at their bodies of work, this isn’t a typical 7-3 vs. 3-7 matchup. Every Jaguars loss has been by single digits, and if a play or two goes their way they could easily be 5-5. Give me the points with the home team off a bye.
The pick: Jacksonville
DENVER (3-7) AT CAROLINA (3-8)
Denver by 2.5; O/U: 36.5
Sam Darnold gets the start for the Panthers. Denver is 6-1 all-time vs. Carolina, including a win in Super Bowl 50. Those results have nothing to do with this game but considering this matchup is a candidate for the 2022 “Game I Least Want To Pick” award, that’s all I got.
The pick: Denver
LOCK OF THE WEEK
TAMPA BAY (5-5) AT CLEVELAND (3-7)
Tampa Bay by 3.5; O/U: 42.5
Part of picking NFL games every week is realizing when you were wrong about a team. I thought the Bucs were done, but then they rallied to beat the Rams and then played their best game of the year in a win over the Seahawks. Tom Brady is 15-5 after the regular-season bye week and I expect the Bucs to build off the Germany win against a Browns defense that has allowed 30 or more points in five games.
The pick: Tampa Bay
ATLANTA (5-6) AT WASHINGTON (6-5)
Washington by 4; O/U: 40.5
This is a good matchup for Washington, which is sixth in the NFL at stopping the run (103.1 yards per game). Atlanta has the third-best rushing attack (159.4), but it won’t be able to sustain drives like it usually does. The Commanders have won five of six (5-0-1 ATS during that span) and need to keep pace in the ultracompetitive NFC East.
The pick: Washington
4 p.m. GAMES
L.A. RAMS (3-7) AT KANSAS CITY (8-2)
TV: Fox
Kansas City by 15.5; O/U: 42.5
The last time these two teams met, they played arguably the greatest regular-season game in NFL history, a 54-51 Rams win on MNF. Since then, both franchises have won a Super Bowl. Now, only one is a contender. Kansas City (4-6 ATS) doesn’t cover as much as it wins, but this should be one-sided. No Matthew Stafford. No Cooper Kupp. No chance of keeping this close. L.A. would probably need to play three games to total 54 points again.
The pick: Kansas City
L.A. CHARGERS (5-5) AT ARIZONA (4-7)
TV: CBS
Los Angeles by 3; O/U: 48.5
After back-to-back close losses (and covers) against San Francisco and Kansas City on SNF, the Chargers face a banged-up, beaten-down Cardinals team that is 1-9 in their last 10 home games dating back to last season. Be careful, though, because L.A. is always involved in close games and Arizona has its bye next week.
The pick: L.A. Chargers
NEW ORLEANS (4-7) AT SAN FRANCISCO (6-4)
San Francisco by 8.5; O/U: 42.5
The 49ers’ ceiling is so high, and their roster so talented, that they sometimes feel like an auto pick. But there could be a bit of a natural letdown off a short week after a big win at Mexico City on MNF.
The pick: New Orleans
LAS VEGAS (3-7) AT SEATTLE (6-4)
Seattle by 3.5; O/U: 47.5
The last we saw Seattle, it played its second worst game of the year in a loss to Tampa Bay in Germany. The Seahawks are refreshed after the bye, and I expect them to look more like the team that was flying high during a four-game win streak. The Raiders finally won a one-score game last week after starting 0-6, but Seattle is the better all-around team with the better coach at home. Sometimes, it’s that simple.
The pick: Seattle
SUNDAY NIGHT
GREEN BAY (4-7) AT PHILADELPHIA (9-1)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Philadelphia by 6.5; O/U: 46.5
Which Eagles team is going to show up? The one that started 8-0, or the one that last week needed a late TD drive to avoid a second straight loss and escape Indianapolis with a one-point win? This is too many points to lay against a desperate Packers team fighting to stay in the wild-card picture.
The pick: Green Bay
MONDAY NIGHT
PITTSBURGH (3-7) AT INDIANAPOLIS (4-6-1)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Indianapolis by 2.5; O/U: 39.5
This could be a down-to-the-wire game as they’re both desperate for a win. The Colts have played well for interim coach Jeff Saturday, but in a prime-time spot, I’ll side with Mike Tomlin’s experience.
The pick: Pittsburgh
