The Kansas City-Chargers game was flexed into Sunday night, but it would’ve been great to see the Jets-Patriots rivalry taking center stage. Cleveland-Buffalo in a made-for-TV snow globe game would've been fun, but that was moved to Detroit, anyway. No matter, Week 11 features intriguing matchups as the weather gets colder and playoff races start to heat up.
Underdogs went 9-5 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 81-65-4 for the season. There are four more teams on the bye this week, including the entire state of Florida.
My most confident picks ATS are Denver, the Jets, Pittsburgh and Washington. Stay away from the New Orleans-L.A. Rams game.
1 P.M. GAMES
JETS (6-3) AT NEW ENGLAND (5-4)
New England by 3.5; O/U: 38.5
It’s all right there for the Jets: Win Sunday and they’re in first place. Lose and they could fall to last place. The stakes couldn’t be higher in the franchise’s biggest game in over a decade. The Jets have lost 13 in a row to the Patriots, including a brutal 22-17 loss in Week 8 in which Zach Wilson threw three interceptions. What people seem to forget is that the Jets rebounded by beating Buffalo the next week. Its defense and run game dominated, and I expect both to be the driving forces in a win on Sunday. The Jets have been the better team for most of the season, and if Wilson can avoid mistakes – a big "if" considering he’s thrown 7 INTs in three losses to Pats — they can finally break the New England hex. Jets OC Mike LaFleur also needs to call a more balanced game: 15 runs vs. 41 throws in the first meeting is not a winning formula. I like that the Jets had a week off to savor the Bills win, regroup and recharge for the rematch.
The pick: Jets
DETROIT (3-6) AT GIANTS (7-2)
Giants by 3; O/U: 44.5
With all due respect to Bill Parcells, you aren’t always what your record says you are. Take the 7-2 Giants, an extremely well-coached team that wins close games but could easily be 5-4. Take the 3-6 Lions, who are a couple plays away from being 5-4. That’s why the point spread isn’t higher. Both teams play on Thanksgiving, but the Lions do every year and I worry that the Giants’ players could have an eye toward Thursday’s rivalry game at Dallas. Like every Giants game, expect a one-score contest in the fourth quarter. I’ll call the mini upset as the Lions build off back-to-back wins over the Packers and Bears. Speedy receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown will be the difference.
The pick: Detroit
PHILADELPHIA (8-1) AT INDIANAPOLIS (4-5-1)
Philadelphia by 6.5; O/U: 44.5
Double-digit favorites are 3-8 ATS this season, with two of those losses by the Eagles the last two weeks. This spread opened at Eagles -10 but dipped into single digits after Philadelphia played its worst game of the season a day after Indianapolis played its best game. The Eagles’ defense couldn’t get off the field on MNF. Jeff Saturday, Matt Ryan and a reenergized Colts offensive line will keep this close in front of a charged-up home crowd.
The pick: Indianapolis
WASHINGTON (5-5) AT HOUSTON (1-7-1)
Washington by 3; O/U: 40.5
How ‘bout them ... Commanders?! After Washington handed Philadelphia its first loss in a stirring win on MNF, it’s natural to think the letdown factor could be in play. But I’ll go the other way and say this young, hungry team that has won four of five and is suddenly in the NFC playoff picture will build off one of the best wins of the NFL season.
The pick: Washington
L.A. RAMS (3-6) AT NEW ORLEANS (3-7)
New Orleans by 3; O/U: 38.5
Both teams have been hit hard by injuries. Even though Matthew Stafford is expected to return, the loss of Cooper Kupp is too costly. L.A. has no run game and without Kupp, it’s hard to imagine the passing game having success, either.
The pick: New Orleans
CLEVELAND (3-6) VS. BUFFALO (6-3) (in Detroit)
Buffalo by 8.5; O/U: 48.5
With Buffalo expecting up to six feet of snow this weekend, this game was moved to Detroit. Advantage: Josh Allen and the Bills, who will be super-focused after back-to-back bad losses to the Jets and Vikings. Out of nowhere, the Bills need a win to keep pace in the surprisingly stacked AFC East. The Browns might as well stay in Cleveland.
The pick: Buffalo
CAROLINA (3-7) AT BALTIMORE (6-3)
Baltimore by 13; O/U: 41.5
Baker Mayfield gets the start for Carolina and he knows Baltimore well from his AFC North Days. The Ravens are rested off the bye and Lamar Jackson & Co. could roll the way the Bengals did (35-0 at halftime, 42-21 win) in the Panthers’ last road game.
The pick: Baltimore
CHICAGO (3-7) AT ATLANTA (4-6)
Atlanta by 3; O/U: 49.5
This is a toss-up game between two of the NFL’s best rushing teams. I’ll side with the team that has the most unstoppable player, and that’s the Bears and quarterback Justin Fields.
The pick: Chicago
4 P.M. GAMES
GAME OF THE WEEK
DALLAS (6-3) AT MINNESOTA (8-1)
TV: CBS
Dallas by 1.5; O/U: 47.5
Last week both teams won the coin toss in overtime, but only one won the game. Now, Minnesota (off a 33-30 win at Buffalo after trailing 27-10) hosts Dallas (off a 31-28 loss at Green Bay in which it blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter) in yep, you guessed it, a coin-flip game. It’s tempting to fade Minnesota again because this is a letdown spot after it won the game of the year. Then again, all it does is win close games: its seven-game win streak has been by 4, 3, 7, 8, 8, 3 and 3 points. Also, the Vikings are using outside doubt as fuel, and this point spread will only add to that fire. This will be close, but all-world receiver Justin Jefferson will open the running game for Dalvin Cook. He could feast against a Cowboys’ defense that got run over in Green Bay.
The pick: Minnesota
CINCINNATI (5-4) AT PITTSBURGH (3-6)
Cincinnati by 3.5; O/U: 40.5
Teams are 10-6 straight up after their bye and Cincinnati had two weeks to prepare for this rivalry game, a rematch of a wild Week 1 contest in which Pittsburgh prevailed, 23-20, in overtime. Joe Burrow surely won’t repeat that 4-INT performance, but he also won’t have Ja’Marr Chase. The Steelers will have T.J. Watt, who returned last week in a 20-10 win over the Saints. The Steelers are 2-0 with Watt and 1-6 without him. Expect another down-to-the-wire game. 23-20 again?
The pick: Pittsburgh
LOCK OF THE WEEK
LAS VEGAS (2-7) AT DENVER (3-6)
Denver by 2.5; O/U: 41.5
The Raiders’ season hit rock-bottom in last week’s loss to the Colts, one that had Derek Carr holding back tears after Las Vegas fell to 0-6 in one-score games. The Raiders beat the Broncos, 32-23, in Week 4 but I see a much lower-scoring game this time. Denver’s defense is elite, and in four home games has allowed 9, 10, 12 and 16 points. That the Broncos went 2-2 in those games tells you everything you need to know about their struggling offense. Still, this is a great spot against a demoralized team as Denver’s ‘D’ leads a 17-13 type of win.
The pick: Denver
SUNDAY NIGHT
KANSAS CITY (7-2) AT L.A. CHARGERS (5-4)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Kansas City by 6; O/U: 51.5
Patrick Mahomes is 23-3 straight up against the AFC West and 6-2 vs. the Chargers. In his last four games against the Bolts, the finals have been one-score margins. KC won the Week 2 meeting, 27-24, and with Justin Herbert possibly getting back top receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, I expect the Chargers to be in this one the whole way like they were at San Francisco last Sunday night.
The pick: L.A. Chargers
MONDAY NIGHT
MEXICO CITY GAME
SAN FRANCISCO (5-4) VS. ARIZONA (4-6)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
San Francisco by 8.5; O/U: 43.5
I was going to take a shot with all these points in a division battle in a non-familiar location, but with the Cardinals possibly having to start their third-string quarterback, it’s too risky. San Francisco has enough stars on both sides of the ball to win by double digits.
The pick: San Francisco
