SAN FRANCISCO (8-6) AT TENNESSEE (9-5)
TV: NFL, 8:20 p.m.
San Francisco by 3.5; O/U: 44
This week "TNF" stands for Thursday Night Finale, and it’s an intriguing one between two teams with playoff aspirations. The 49ers have won five of six and are currently one of the NFC’s wild-card teams. The Titans, after an 8-2 start, have hit a rough patch and lost three of four. They’re still in first in the AFC South but the Colts are charging. Both teams have a ton to play for, so expect a close matchup in the last Thursday night showcase this season.
This pick is all based on line movement. The look-ahead line was Titans -1 and now it’s 49ers -3.5. That’s a huge change, and it doesn’t seem right. San Francisco easily beat Atlanta last week and Tennessee lost a close one at Pittsburgh, but that shouldn’t warrant such a huge swing.
This situation presents itself every now and then, and often the smart move is to back the new underdog with the betting public playing the hotter team. This isn’t the first time a Titans game had a big line change: In Week 9, they went from four-point underdogs to getting 7.5 points on the road against the Rams after Derrick Henry was injured. The Titans not only covered, they won that game, 28-16, on SNF. That was one of my more confident picks of the season (I still regret not making it my lock that week), and I have the same instinct in this spot.
With the Titans’ division lead shrinking, I expect another all-out effort at home. Sure, the 49ers are on a roll, but traveling cross country on a short week is not easy. If Tennessee can keep this game in the low 20s, I think it will win. Getting those extra points is a bonus.
The pick: Tennessee
