What will the NFL do for an encore after one of the most memorable divisional weekends in history? It can’t be topped, but there should be enough excitement as we find out who will be playing in Super Bowl LVI on Feb. 13. If Kansas City wins, we’re guaranteed an interesting big game: Either a rematch from its Super Bowl against the 49ers just two seasons ago, or a battle with the Rams in their home building, the second straight year KC would have to face its Super Bowl opponent in its own building. Wild. Then again, considering it’s the unpredictable NFL, maybe Joe Burrow and the Bengals will throw a wrench into those plans.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY
TV: CBS, 3 p.m.
Kansas City by 7; O/U: 54.5
There’s no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL, but my immediate thought after Kansas City escaped Buffalo in one of the all-time great playoff games: There’s no way Kansas City is losing next week. Which is now this week. Nothing against Burrow’s Bengals, who had their own impressive last-second win over the 1 seed Titans in the divisional round, but I’d be SHOCKED if Kansas City didn’t advance to its third straight Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and all of KC’s weapons are playing host for a record fourth AFC title game in a row, and it’s hard to envision them losing now after somehow winning last week’s 42-36 overtime thriller when it trailed 36-33 with 13 seconds left in regulation. Mahomes is 8-2 in the playoffs with 25 TD passes to just five INTs. His only two losses were against Tom Brady-led teams. In three previous AFC title games, Mahomes is 2-1 with 9 TDs and 0 INTs.
But the Bengals just beat Kansas City in Week 17, you might be thinking. Why can’t they do it again? Well, I believe that loss works against Cincinnati. There’s no longer a surprise element for the Bengals offense. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense will know what it did wrong in the 34-31 loss at Cincinnati in which the Bengals rallied from a 28-17 halftime deficit. KC had no answers for Burrow (30 for 39, 446 yards, 4 TDs) and JaMarr Chase (11 catches, 266 yards, 3 TDs). Expect major adjustments from the KC defense, which doesn’t get enough credit for leading the team’s midseason turnaround. Burrow was sacked nine times at Tennessee last week, and Chris Jones and KC’s pass rush should have success.
The Bengals are a great story, but they’re a young team and asking them to beat a machine like this for the second time in a month feels like an impossible task. I expect this to be a close game for the first half before Mahomes & Co. start to pull away in one of those "the final score doesn’t reflect the whole game" outcomes.
The pick: Kansas City
The score: Kansas City 38, Cincinnati 24
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
SAN FRANCISCO AT L.A. RAMS
TV: Fox, 6:30 p.m.
L.A. Rams by 3.5; O/U: 45.5
Before the season started, my Super Bowl pick was Rams over Kansas City. Before the postseason started, I switched to Kansas City over San Francisco. So what do I do now when both NFC picks are facing off for a trip to the big game? Well, I’m not going to flip a coin (leave that for overtime, right?) but this three-match is basically a coin flip.
The 49ers won the first two meetings, the second a 27-24 overtime thriller in Week 18 that so impressed me I predicted they’d win three road playoff games en route to the Super Bowl. Think about this: San Francisco was down 17-0 late in the second quarter before rallying to save its season against a division rival. On the road. That included a tying touchdown with 26 seconds left in regulation. That’s the kind of win that catapults a team into a magical run, and after a wild win at Dallas followed by a near improbable win at Green Bay (remember, the 49ers did it without scoring an offensive touchdown!), here they are with a chance to pull off their best 2011 Giants impersonation.
The adage, "It’s hard to beat a team three times in one season" holds some stock, but why can’t the 49ers do it again? Kyle Shanahan’s team has owned Sean McVay’s group, going 6-0 over the last three seasons. All the pressure is on the Rams, who are home and a win-now team after bringing in Matthew Stafford, Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. to go along with Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and a cast of stars. Also, this year’s Super Bowl is at SoFi Stadium, so, again, more pressure on the home team to stay home for the super setup. Is Stafford ready for this moment? He threw two interceptions in each loss against the 49ers, including a pick-6 in the first meeting, a 31-10 setback in Week 10.
Many point to Jimmy Garoppolo being too big of a liability in picking the 49ers, but a) that gets blown out of proportion; he’s better than most think and b) they don’t need him to be a star to win. The key is for him to limit mistakes. Deebo Samuel and the 49ers’ run game, plus George Kittle over the middle, is San Francisco’s bread and butter, as is a phenomenal defensive line anchored by Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead, not to mention one of the game’s best linebackers in Fred Warner. The key matchups will be the 49ers’ secondary having to stop Kupp and Beckham, and the Rams trying to slow the 49ers’ rushing attack.
It should be a fun one, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it went to overtime like the Week 18 thriller. If that’s the case, and it comes down to a field goal, give me Robbie Gould, who is a perfect 20 for 20 in the postseason.
The pick: San Francisco
The score: San Francisco 27, L.A. Rams 24
