Before the playoffs started, my Super Bowl prediction was Cincinnati-Philadelphia. The best four teams are still standing, and here’s why I still believe a trip to Super Bowl LVII in Arizona is in the cards for the Bengals and Eagles.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
SAN FRANCISCO AT PHILADELPHIA
TV: Fox, 3 p.m. Sunday
Philadelphia by 2.5; O/U: 46.5
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles haven’t faced a team like the 49ers. Brock Purdy and the 49ers haven’t faced a team like the Eagles. Luckily for us, the NFC’s two best teams face off with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Both squads have dominant defensive lines, as well as elite offensive lines, so if you like throwback football, this is the game for you.
In a game of evenly matched teams, it’s all about finding an edge or two. Home field and the superior quarterback? Check, check for the Eagles, who are 15-1 in games Hurts has started this season. You saw in last week’s 38-7 win over the Giants that when Hurts and the Eagles are on, they’ve been the best team in the NFL this season. If there’s one spot where San Francisco’s defense isn’t dominant, it may be on the outside, so Hurts’ biggest plays could be deep shots to receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. According to ESPN, the Eagles were No. 1 on 25-yard throws and the 49ers' defense ranked in the bottom 5. Seattle had success in the first half of the wild-card game. On the other side, the 49ers are going to want to run, run and then run some more with Christian McCaffrey.
The Eagles led the NFL with 70 sacks during the regular season and added five more last week. Will the pressure be too much for Purdy? For weeks, everyone has been waiting for “Mr. Irrelevant” to play like the last rookie taken in this year’s NFL draft. Instead, he’s 7-0 as a starter (the 49ers have won 12 in a row overall). He didn’t do much in last week’s win over Dallas, but he didn’t turn the ball over, either.
Purdy is the fifth rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game and yep, you guessed it, the previous four all lost. This is by far his toughest matchup yet, and in a hostile road environment, this feels like the week where he finally has a game-changing interception or turnover (strip-sack, anyone?). In a “first to 20 wins” kind of game, take Hurts and the Eagles as the 49ers fall just short for the second straight year.
The pick: Philadelphia
The score: Philadelphia 20, San Francisco 17
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY
TV: CBS, 6:30 p.m. Sunday
Kansas City by 1.5; O/U: 47.5
This rematch of last year’s AFC title game has a completely different feel to it because of Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. He’s going to play, but he won’t be close to 100%. Mahomes likely won’t be able to do what he does best: improvise while buying time. Even if Mahomes was at full strength, I’d still like Cincinnati’s chances.
I’ve been on the Bengals’ bandwagon since early December, right around the time Joe Burrow got the best of Mahomes and Kansas City ... again. Burrow is 3-0 in head-to-head matchups, and they’ve all taken place in the last 12 months-plus. Before this year’s 27-24 win at Cincinnati in Week 13, it was a 34-31 win (also at home) in Week 17 last season and then, of course, the dramatic 27-24 overtime win at Kansas City in the AFC title game.
Burrow and his offensive weapons, led by receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, get all the headlines but it’s the unheralded defense that is the secret ingredient. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, whose first DC job was with USMMA on Long Island in the early '90s, continues to do a super job as the Bengals are on the doorstep of back-to-back trips to the big game. If he’s been able to hold Mahomes enough in check for Burrow and the offense to outscore them the last three games, why wouldn’t he be able to do it again with Mahomes limited?
Cincinnati having to win on the road in last year’s Divisional Round and Championship Sunday has served it well. It won’t be intimidated by playing at Arrowhead. The Bengals haven’t lost since Week 8, their 10-game win streak including a 9-1 record against the spread (they’re 18-4 ATS dating to last year’s playoffs). Cincinnati dominated Buffalo on the road last week despite being down three starters on the offensive line. No matter the obstacle, this Bengals findsa way. Down 21-3 in last year’s title game at Kansas City? No sweat. Joe Cool is on the case. He’s 3-0 on the road in the playoffs and 5-1 overall, the lone loss to the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl.
Not only do the Bengals have a golden arm in Burrow, it also benefits them that there’s a big chip on his shoulder. The team, too, as they’ve embraced the underdog mentality. Already upset over the NFL’s ruling in Week 18 of a possible coin flip to decide the AFC North (it wasn’t necessary), the Bengals weren’t happy last week when the NFL started selling tickets in advance of a possible neutral-site AFC title game had Buffalo faced Kansas City. “Better get those refunds” was Burrow’s message after beating the Bills. The Bengals have shown time and time again during the last two postseasons that betting against them is not a smart move. And if you do, there won’t be any refunds.
The pick: Cincinnati
The score: Cincinnati 27, Kansas City 20
