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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Chris Stein

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis potent challengers to Biden in swing states, poll shows – as it happened

Joe Biden Donald Trump United States Siena College
Former governor from South Carolina and UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida governor Ron DeSantis
Former governor from South Carolina and UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida governor Ron DeSantis Photograph: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

Closing summary

Democrats are grappling with a New York Times/Siena College poll released over the weekend that showed Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in five of the six swing states that will be crucial to deciding next year’s election. Worse still, it showed Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, two Republicans who polls show are less popular with the party’s voters than Trump, also beating the president in a general election match-up. David Axelrod, an ex-Barack Obama adviser, said the survey should give the president pause, while Dan Pfeiffer, also formerly of the Obama White House, believes the Democrats still have a path to victory.

Here’s what else happened today:

  • House Republicans will try again to censure progressive Democrat Rashida Tlaib for her comments about Israel, with two separate resolutions targeting her.

  • Trump took the witness stand in his civil fraud trial in New York City, and things quickly took a turn for the worse. Our live blog recounts the day’s events here.

  • Israel’s invasion of Gaza continues, with the Palestinian health ministry announcing the death toll has crossed 10,000.

  • Ohio is gearing up to vote tomorrow on whether to protect abortion access in the state constitution. Polls indicate the effort may succeed, but reproductive rights advocates are nonetheless anxious.

  • Another poll shows Americans overwhelmingly believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, and confirms that both Biden and Trump remain unpopular.

Updated

House Republicans gear up to again attempt Tlaib censure over Israel-Palestine remarks

Days after a resolution to censure progressive Democrat Rashida Tlaib was voted down in the House by a bipartisan group of lawmakers, Republicans have introduced two more resolutions to punish her for her comments regarding Israel.

Rightwing Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene was the author of the original resolution to censure Tlaib, and is making a new attempt:

Also jumping into the fray is Georgia Republican Rich McCormick, who voted against Greene’s original resolution to censure Tlaib, and has now introduced his own. In a video posted on X (formerly Twitter), he says his problem with the first attempt was that it accused Tlaib of “insurrection”, which, if passed, could have had implications for a “former president” – a reference to Donald Trump:

Over the weekend, Tlaib stirred up controversy by accusing Joe Biden of supporting “genocide of the Palestinian people” and warning his assistance to Israel as it invades Gaza will hurt his standing in next year’s election:

Meanwhile, in New York City, Donald Trump just concluded a tumultuous day of testimony in his civil fraud trial.

His time on the stand was marked by repeated clashes with judge Arthur Engoron, who is deciding what penalties to level on the former president and his family after finding that they are liable for committing fraud.

Check out our live blog for more on what happened in today’s hearing:

The New York Times/Siena College poll finding Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in key swing states is raising concerns among Democrats nationwide, the Guardian’s David Smith reports, but there’s no sign of the president changing his decision to run for re-election:

Senior Democrats have sounded the alarm after an opinion poll showed Joe Biden trailing the Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in five out of six battleground states exactly a year before the presidential election.

Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Biden ahead in Wisconsin, according to a survey published on Sunday by the New York Times and Siena College. Biden beat Trump in all six states in 2020 but the former president now leads by an average of 48% to 44% across these states in a hypothetical rematch.

Additional findings released on Monday, however, showed that if Trump were to be convicted of criminal charges against him, some of his support in some swing states would erode by about 6%, which could be enough to tip the electoral college in Biden’s favour.

Even so, the survey is in line with a series of recent polls that show the race too close for comfort for many Trump foes as voters express doubts about Biden’s age – the oldest US president in history turns 81 later this month – and handling of the economy, prompting renewed debate over whether he should step aside to make way for a younger nominee.

Read the full story here:

Updated

The latest ABC/Ipsos poll shows that 76% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, on top of that daunting New York Times/Siena poll.

The ABC poll also shows that Joe Biden’s approval ratings among voters is just 33% – but Donald Trump’s is even lower at 29%.

ABC political heavyweights Jon Karl and George Stephanopoulos then discussed the outlook, with Karl saying many GOP voters don’t know the extremist things that the former president plans to do if he gets back into the White House, including prosecuting former senior aides and unleashing US troops on US streets.

Updated

Diplomats at the US state department have sent a “blistering critique” of the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Gaza crisis, according to a report published by Politico a little earlier.

The outlet obtained what it termed a dissent memo, which features two requests, first that the US back the idea of a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza (not the “humanitarian pause” the White House has been talking about) and that it air more of the administration’s private criticisms of Israel’s military actions and the effects on Palestinian civilians.

The leaked memo notes that the disconnect “contributes to regional public perceptions that the United States is a biased and dishonest actor, which at best does not advance, and at worst harms, US interests worldwide” and noting that the US “must publicly criticize Israel’s violations of international norms such as failure to limit offensive operations to legitimate military targets”.

It adds: “When Israel supports settler violence and illegal land seizures or employs excessive use of force against Palestinians, we must communicate publicly that this goes against our American values so that Israel does not act with impunity.”

Updated

The day so far

Democrats are grappling with a New York Times/Siena College poll released over the weekend that showed Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in five of the six swing states that will be crucial to deciding next year’s election. Worse still, it showed Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, two Republicans who are down in the polls against Trump, also beating the president in a general election match-up. David Axelrod, an ex-Barack Obama adviser, said the survey should give the president pause, while Dan Pfeiffer, also formerly of the Obama White House, believes the Democrats still have a path to victory.

Here’s what else has been going on today:

  • Trump took the witness stand in his civil fraud trial in New York City, and things quickly took a turn for the worse. Read our live blog here.

  • Israel’s invasion of Gaza continues, with the health ministry in the Hamas-controlled territory announcing the death toll among Palestinians has crossed 10,000.

  • Ohio is gearing up to vote tomorrow on whether to protect abortion access in the state constitution. Polls indicate the effort may succeed, but reproductive rights advocates are nonetheless anxious.

Updated

It isn’t just in general election polls that Nikki Haley is showing strength. As the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino reports, the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador under Donald Trump is also rising in polls of Republican presidential contenders, though the former president remains far-and-away the frontrunner:

On Monday, Nikki Haley returned to the building where her political career began to formally submit the paperwork to appear on the Republican presidential primary ballot in her home state of South Carolina. Haley held up her filing for the cameras. In loopy writing she had scrawled: “Let’s do this!”

The exclamation punctuated Haley’s emergence as a viable alternative to Donald Trump. It comes nearly 20 years after Haley’s election to the South Carolina statehouse, having bested a 30-year Republican incumbent in a come-from-behind victory that stunned her party and began her unlikely ascent to the governor’s mansion and then to become Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.

“I’ve always been the underdog,” Haley said in remarks at the statehouse on Monday. “I enjoy that. It’s what makes me scrappy.”

In a Republican primary still thoroughly dominated by Trump, Haley is enjoying, for now, the next best thing: an unexpected rise to second place.

Tomorrow is election day in states with off-year races, including Ohio, where voters will decide whether to protect abortion access in the state constitution. The state leans Republicans, but as the Guardian’s Carter Sherman reports, polling shows voters appear in favor of the measure:

When Annie Boyle picked up the phone, the woman at the other end of the line wanted to know: what’s going on with Ohio’s abortion referendum?

As a patient advocate at Preterm, a sprawling abortion clinic in Cleveland, Ohio, Boyle is used to confusion over Ohio’s six-week abortion ban, which took effect shortly after the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, but is now on hold. “I’m old, I don’t need an abortion,” the woman on the phone said, but she sounded disturbed by the ban.

“Six weeks?” the woman exclaimed, according to Boyle, who recounted the call. “What if I was raped?”

On Tuesday, Ohioans will head to the polls to vote on Issue 1, a proposal to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. The stakes are high: if Issue 1 fails, abortion rights supporters suspect that the Ohio supreme court will reinstate the six-week ban. It does not include exceptions for pregnancies resulting from rape or incest.

“It’s just really terrifying to think about. I don’t know anyone who’s not scared,” said Sri Thakkilapati, the clinic’s executive director. “There’s a kind of moral injury that comes with fighting so hard to provide this care, because you think it’s the right thing – and then not being able to do it and having to turn literally hundreds of people away each week.”

Gaza’s health ministry in the Hamas-controlled territory says more than 10,000 Palestinians have been killed there since 7 October.

We have a separate live blog covering the conflict, and you can follow it here:

Updated

Another issue that may be on voters’ minds next year, particularly among Democrats, is Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Last week, several Democratic senators publicly endorsed the idea of a “humanitarian pause” in the incursion, and the Guardian’s Ed Pilkington reports that Bernie Sanders, a progressive independent who caucuses with the Democrats, is also calling for a break in the fighting:

Bernie Sanders has stepped up his calls for a humanitarian pause in Gaza, demanding an immediate stop to Israeli bombing and an end to the killing of thousands of “innocent men, women and children” in the enclave.

In some of his strongest words in the 30-day war, the independent US senator from Vermont decried the 7 October Hamas attack inside Israel. He labelled Hamas as an “awful terrorist organization” that had “slaughtered 1,400 people in cold blood”, reiterating his belief that Israel had the right to defend itself.

But speaking on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday, Sanders said the death of civilians had to stop. “What Israel does not, in my view, have a right to do is to kill thousands of thousands of innocent men, women and children who had nothing to do with that attack,” he said.

The senator added: “There’s not enough food, there’s not enough water, medicine, fuel. You’ve got a humanitarian disaster, it has to be dealt with right now.”

Another former adviser to Barack Obama has weighed in on the New York Times/Siena poll, and agreed it’s a warning sign for Joe Biden’s re-election campaign.

“I am still processing this poll and will have more to say in the coming days. But I do not want to sugarcoat it. While some of Trump’s gains among Black, Hispanic, and young voters may be hard to believe, numbers like these are broadly consistent with the trendlines in recent polls. This poll shows that not only can Trump win, he might now be a slight favorite to do so. Even if we don’t take the results literally, we should take them very, very seriously,” writes Dan Pfeiffer.

But Pfeiffer sees a way for Democrats to turn around their fortunes by targeting what he calls “Double Haters”, or voters who disapprove of both Biden and Trump. The key to reaching this group will be reminding it of Biden’s legislative accomplishments that polling shows are broadly popular with the public, such as the 2021 infrastructure bill that will pour billions of dollars into roads and bridges, or the provisions of last year’s Inflation Reduction Act that allows Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices.

Pfeiffer writes:

This finding is important for a couple of reasons. It means that the path to persuading these “Double Haters” is relatively simple in conception, if not execution. Reaching these voters is not easy. They are skeptical of the media and politicians. Most of them do not consume political news. So it will take a lot of time and even more effort.

…

The Biden campaign and Super PACs like Unite the Country cannot do everything. We all have a role to play. I am confident you have “Double Haters” among your friends and family. I certainly do. The research shows voters are more likely to be persuaded by people they know. Let’s work to educate people about everything Biden has done to grow the economy, create jobs, and lower costs. The best language to use is in the Navigator Poll.

Here’s a link to said poll from Navigator Research, which Pfeiffer bases his findings on.

Updated

Beyond the Republicans who hope to beat him in a general election, Joe Biden also has a primary challenger in the form of Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips. Here’s the Guardian’s Rachel Leingang with more on why Phillips thinks he can triumph over the sitting president:

For people who know the Democratic Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips, his run for presidency is perplexing. For some of them, it’s also disappointing, maybe even enraging. But they also think he’s genuine in his quest to go up against Joe Biden in the Democratic primary, despite how it might affect his own political career and how it could damage Biden in one of the most consequential elections in recent US history.

Phillips announced his run for the presidency in New Hampshire last week, saying it was time for the next generation to lead in a pointed reference to concerns about Biden’s age. He says he is a fan of Biden’s and a supporter of his policies, but he is 54, while Biden is 80. Phillips, the heir to a distilling empire who also co-owned a gelato company, is injecting his own wealth into his presidential campaign – solving any problem of raising funds.

In Minnesota, where Phillips represents a purple district filled with wealthier suburbs of Minneapolis, Phillips first ran for Congress in the state’s third congressional district and flipped a longtime Republican seat blue. In his next two elections, he won more and more voters to his side, preaching pragmatic politics and driving a “government repair truck”.

Ann Gavin helped him. She knocked on doors, delivered campaign signs. The 70-year-old Democratic voter from Plymouth, Minnesota, admires the congressman and the work he’s done for the district. She thinks he would be a great president someday, too, with his business savvy and political skills.

Haley, DeSantis also potent challengers to Biden in swing states – poll

Donald Trump has for months led polls of Republican presidential contenders, giving him a clear edge heading into next year’s primaries. But let’s say something happens to knock him out of contention, and his former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley wins the nomination. How might she do against Joe Biden?

The New York Times and Siena College asked voters that question in the six swing states it polled, and found she would be an even more potent challenger to Biden than Trump:

Or what about Ron DeSantis? While headlines have lately focused on why the Florida governor’s once-promising presidential campaign has floundered among Republicans, the NYT/Siena poll he would best Biden in five of the six swing states, if he somehow clinched the nomination:

You can find the survey’s full data here.

Updated

Former top Obama adviser says Biden needs to decide if re-election campaign 'is wise' after grim polls

David Axelrod helped Barack Obama win the White House twice, and after looking at the New York Times/Siena College poll released yesterday that found Donald Trump leading in five of the six major swing states, he says Joe Biden needs to decide if pressing on with his re-election campaign is a good idea.

The president announced his campaign earlier this year and has shown no signs of wavering, despite persistently low approval ratings and a succession of polls indicating Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, would be a strong challenger.

On X, formerly known as Twitter, Axelrod says he is particularly worried about Biden’s ability to address concerns about his age:

Democrats are chewing over the New York Times/Siena College poll released this weekend that shows Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in several key swing states. Here’s what one senator had to say, from the Guardian’s Mark Oliver:

The Democratic senator Richard Blumenthal said on Sunday that the party had “its work cut out for us” in response to new polling that shows President Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in five of six swing states.

The survey by the New York Times and Siena College of voters in six battleground states, was released with 365 days to go until the 2024 presidential election.

Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, but Trump topped the survey in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The margins ranged from three to 10 percentage points, and reflected an erosion of support among the fragile, multiracial coalition that elected Biden over Trump in 2020.

Speaking to CNN’s State of the Union, Blumenthal of Connecticut, said: “I was concerned before these polls, and I’m concerned now. These presidential races over the last couple of terms have been very tight. No one is going to have a runaway election here. It’s going to take a lot of hard work, concentration, resources. And so we have our work cut out for us.”

However, Blumenthal praised Biden’s record, pointing to his diplomacy on the Israel-Hamas war – which has dismayed some on the progressive side of the party – saying the president’s leadership “has been critical … where he’s forged a bipartisan consensus in favor of a peaceful outcome with a Palestinian state as the goal”.

How is Donald Trump coping with the scrutiny and pressure of his ongoing civil fraud trial? The Guardian’s Hugo Lowell looked into it, and here’s what he found:

Donald Trump has appeared at times angrily under siege as he stews over his predicament in the New York civil fraud case, according to people close to the former president, particularly furious in recent weeks with the witness testimony that could result in the end of the Trump Organization empire.

The rulings from the presiding New York state supreme court justice Arthur Engoron, who found that Trump and co-defendants were liable for fraud and ordered all of Trump’s adult children to testify at the ongoing trial, for instance, have taken a toll.

“So sad to see my sons being PERSECUTED in a political Witch Hunt by this out of control, publicity seeking, New York State Judge, on a case that should have NEVER been brought,” Trump partially wrote in one Truth Social post. “Legal Scholars Scream Disgrace!”

And Trump was furious when the judge imposed a gag order against him in the New York case, as well as when the judge enforced $15,000 in fines last week after deciding that Trump violated its prohibitions by assailing the judge’s law clerk.

But Trump appears to have been otherwise content with his legal situation, including with the multiple criminal cases that are marching towards trial, the people said – an observation that the playbook he reverts to when feeling threatened, to attack and delay, has lately been successful.

Donald Trump set to appear on witness stand in civil fraud trial

Donald Trump is expected this morning to make a rare appearance on the witness stand in the civil fraud trial of his family business.

The trial in New York City is one of the many civil and criminal legal entanglements the president is caught up in. At stake here is his family business, the Trump Organization, which a judge could levy major penalties against, depending on the outcome of the trial.

Follow our live blog for the latest on his testimony:

Biden trails Trump in five of six swing states, poll shows, but conviction could change the game

Good morning, US politics blog readers. Democrats were rattled yesterday when the New York Times and Siena College published a poll showing Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in five of the six swing states that are expected to decide the election next year. Voters surveyed thought the former president was a better bet to handle the economy, immigration and national security, all issues Biden has made priorities of his administration, while a massive 71% thought he was “too old” to continue doing the job. We are still a year away from election day and voter sentiment could change dramatically, but the poll was a high-quality one and exactly the sort an incumbent does not want to receive as they kick off their re-election bid.

But next year’s election will be like no other because Trump – the presumptive nominee – is facing four separate criminal indictments, and the Times said today that if he is convicted and sentenced, that could swing voter sentiment by about six percentage points, enough to deliver key states to Biden. The trial most likely to be resolved before election day is the politically potent proceedings against Trump for trying to overturn the 2020 election, which will take place in Washington DC and currently has a start date of 4 March.

Here’s what else we are watching today:

  • Trump is expected to take the stand in the civil fraud trial of his family business, where he will face hostile questioning about his business empire in open court. We have a live blog on that.

  • Antony Blinken is in Turkey, the latest stop on a tour of the Middle East this weekend that included visits to Iraq and the West Bank, all aimed at dealing with Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Follow our live blog for the latest news on the conflict.

  • Amtrak will get its moment in the spotlight when Biden pays a visit to the passenger railway’s employees today in Delaware and touts “Bidenomics”, the term his administration has dubbed for his economic accomplishments that is not exactly catching on with voters. The president makes public remarks at 1.15pm eastern time.

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