As of Oct. 31, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
With Trump in the lead, it’s becoming the reality of a Trump vs. Biden rematch for the 2024 election where Trump is currently leading Biden in hypothetical match up, according to a RealClear Politics poll.
Trump’s polling average currently stands at 59%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 13%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.71, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s (R) share price is $0.15, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.11. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.
President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 70% polling average. No other Democratic primary candidate is polling at or above 10%. Biden has a $0.71 PredictIt share price. One other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) stands at $0.22.
Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.
Biden is facing a daunting task for re-election standing at a 40% approval rating with a flailing economy and with the wars in Ukraine and Israel.
Trump is currently facing state and federal indictments in New York, Washington, Atlanta, and Miami following his controversial moves before taking office, towards the end of his term in office, and post-presidential office.
The former president has been able to thrive in the polls in the GOP primary and off of fundraising.
Trump had called these indictments political and weaponization of the justice system.
Both Trump and Biden stand as the oldest candidates to run in a presidential election where Trump or Biden could be the oldest re-elected president in the history of the United States.
“These Political Indictments Would Disappoint our Founding Fathers,” said Trump on Truth Social.
Former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the race as Trump is in front of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley.
Biden has remained an unpopular president compared to his predecessors despite the choices of a 2020 election rematch.
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