A poll today suggests the Tories are heading for an electoral wipeout similar to the defeat of 1997. YouGov says they will be left with less than 170 seats – 11 Cabinet ministers will be among those signing on.
Things can change, of course. But one worrying factor for the Tories must be the job market.
Going back to when George Osborne, once of this parish, was Chancellor – though that seems like an age ago – jobs have been a strength for the Conservative Party.
No one who wanted work could reasonably argue that there was none.
Official unemployment figures for December are out tomorrow and will be watched keenly for signs of wobble.
Today we have enough evidence already to suggest all is not well. PageGroup is just the latest recruiter to warn of a lack of jobs confidence among recruiters and clients.
Fewer people want to risk jumping jobs, even if there were one to jump to.
The London labour market looks weakest of all amidst a cull of bankers who don’t have enough deals to keep them busy.
City economists, never short of reasons to worry, say that part of the problem is that the ONS is in the midst of adjusting how it measures the jobs market.
We are on temporary methods until the ONS agrees on a new, we assume better, approach.
A potential turning point for the labour market is a really bad time to be tearing up the model you’ve been using for decades, since it makes it hard to know what is temporary noise and what is actually bad news.
Still, someone for the politicians for blame if it begins to look worse rather than better.
Failing that, they can blame the Bank of England, with reason, for not cutting interest rates. It should crack on with that, right now.
