Barring another major surprise like the one that sent Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, it's down to the Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers as five teams who likely don't have their 2022 starting quarterback on the roster.
An eight-pack of observations on this year's game of quarterback musical chairs, which eliminated one spot and opened up another Wednesday when Carson Wentz was traded from Washington to Indianapolis:
1. Old school 49ers
The last two Super Bowl champions (Bucs, Rams) made bold moves for veteran starters in Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford and came away with the ultimate prize. That hadn't happened since Trent Dilfer and the defense-fueled Baltimore Ravens in 2000.
I still think draft and develop is the way to go, and from here it looks like the 49ers made the right move with Trey Lance. Now all they have to do is find a landing spot for Jimmy Garoppolo. He should start somewhere in the current market, but when I think of Garoppolo, it reminds me of Jeff Hostetler when he was released by the Raiders after bringing in Jeff George — a solid veteran backup you'd want on your team but not necessarily as a starter on a contending team.
Any talk of keeping Garoppolo around at a $24.2 million salary to back up Lance makes no financial sense if the 49ers are serious about extending Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa.
2. The Trey Lance prototype
So the 49ers anoint Lance as their quarterback just as the NFL is going back to dropback passers? Super Bowl LVI featured Stafford against Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, a conventional downfield thrower with so-so mobility.
Hall of Famer Steve Young has long insisted producing from the pocket is and always will be the most important asset a quarterback can have.
That's why as Shanahan shapes a system for Lance's skills, he should look closely at Buffalo's Josh Allen rather than Lamar Jackson, whose running and passing skills in 2019 made him an MVP with 1,206 yards rushing to go along with 36 touchdowns and nine receptions. Jackson slumped to 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 12 games last season and is in the final year of his contract.
As good as Allen is on the ground — and he had 763 yards rushing in 2021 — he's even better through the air with 4,407 yards passing and 36 touchdowns. That is what the 49ers and Lance should be aiming for.
3. The Carr dilemma
Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is in the last year of his contract at $19.9 million and conventional wisdom is that he'll get a short-term extension that could double that figure in terms of average salary. But what if the Raiders would rather Carr play out his existing five-year, $125 million deal that for a short period of time made him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL?
It would give coach Josh McDaniel and general manager Dave Ziegler a year to evaluate Carr and see if they can increase his red-zone production and decrease the turnovers. He's a top-12 quarterback who could move into the top-five realm if that can be accomplished. If it can't, he's the fourth-best quarterback in the division behind Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and now Wilson.
Given how seldom players actually get through an entire deal, I'd have a hard time seeing that as a sign of disrespect toward Carr. He'd be gambling on himself, because the money Carr would make next year would be huge if he kills it in the best quarterback division in the NFL.
4. The Carson Wentz mystery
The Colts haven't had the same starting quarterback in Week 1 in back-to-back years since 2015 and 2016 with Andrew Luck. It was Scott Tolzien in 2017, Luck in 2018, Jacoby Brissett in 2019, Philip Rivers in 2020 and Wentz last season.
Wentz cratered at the end of the season against the Raiders and Jacksonville. But he finished with 27 touchdown passes and seven interceptions and at times looked vaguely like the guy who was considered a franchise-type talent in Philadelphia.
That the Colts bailed so quickly after giving up a lot to get him suggests it's another disaster for Washington and coach Ron Rivera, who deserves better.
5. NFC South wasteland
If we can all agree the AFC West is king when it comes to quarterbacks (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Carr) then which division is worst?
If Bruce Arians is serious about Blaine Gabbert being his potential starter, then it's going to be the NFC South. An end-of-the-line Matt Ryan is far and away the best quarterback. Free-agent Jameis Winston could resurface in either New Orleans or Tampa. Sam Darnold has the look of a lame-duck quarterback with a lame-duck coach in Matt Ruhle.
If Carr is No. 4 in the AFC West, he'd be No. 1 in this division — no questions asked.
6. The Aaron Rodgers show
Once upon a time I was a fly on the wall when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were interviewing Aaron Rodgers before the 2005 NFL draft. It was an entertaining back-and-forth between Rodgers and coach Jon Gruden. Rodgers was confident, funny and not the least bit nervous or intimidated.
There was nothing to indicate Rodgers would be prone to the kind of drama he's manufactured for the last two years with Green Bay. He wants to be consulted on personnel decisions. He wants the kind of respect that comes with his status.
But while Rodgers disputes reports of his new deal being for four years and $200 million, what he really wanted, it appears, was money. No shame in that. It's how you keep score. He's one of the best regular-season quarterbacks of all time, but the rest of his act, often voiced through close friend Pat McAfee's show, is getting tired.
7. Kyler Murray — gimmick or not?
Not sure what has been more disturbing about Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray, the awful game he put up in the playoffs or a staged offseason in which he temporarily removed all team logos from his social media and then had his agent give a ham-handed plea for a new contract issued via statement through the media.
Arizona recently extended coach Kliff Kingsbury, who was brought in specifically to coach Murray, and GM Steve Keim. Maybe they can get Murray straightened out in terms of maturity, but I'm thinking this whole arrangement is good news for the 49ers in the NFC West — almost as good as Wilson leaving the division.
8. The Eastern bloc
While not as problematic as the NFC South, the eastern divisions of both conferences have a lot of question marks. There's Dak Prescott of Dallas in the NFC East and Allen of Buffalo in the AFC East and then there's everybody else.
The AFC East at least had three young quarterbacks who could make big steps up including Tua Tagovaiola in Miami (with new coach Mike McDaniel) and second-year starters Mac Jones of the Patriots and Zach Wilson with the New York Jets. I probably feel a little better about Tagovaiola than the other two, because Jones will be without McDaniels, who left to coach the Raiders, and Wilson is on a team you can expect to remain awful in 2022.
Miami, at least, had enough decent players to go 9-8 and with McDaniel at the helm, you can expect the Dolphins to run the ball better than they have in years.
