With less than two months before pitchers and catchers report to JetBlue Park, the Red Sox have a roster that still has giant holes and lacks a clear path forward in a talented American League East.
The top free agents are off the board and unless the Sox make a stunning trade in which they finally part with their much-coveted prospects to add an impact big-leaguer, they’ll once again find themselves in the uncomfortable position of being picked to finish in last place.
They currently rank 12th in MLB in projected payroll and 18th in projected WAR, per Fan Graphs, all leading us to ask a question that years ago would’ve never seemed logical: are the Sox actually trying to win?
The question must be asked again after this weekend’s report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, who said the Red Sox are listening to trade offers for Chris Sale.
At first it sounds ridiculous — why would the Sox trade one of their few high-profile players remaining, and one who, while a walking injury risk, remains one of the most talented players on the roster?
Teams that are serious about competing don’t trade these players.
Teams that are in the middle of a rebuild, looking to shed salary and trying to get younger do trade these players.
And there’s no doubt about it — the Red Sox could very well win a Sale trade, as long as he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause, which, ironically, would likely require the team to convince him he’s more likely to contend for a title elsewhere.
The Sox could snipe one or two talented prospects or pre-arbitration big leaguers while avoid paying Sale $25.6 million a year for the next two years.
Trading the lefty isn’t actually a terrible idea — it could be a brilliant one.
It’d have to be well-executed, and given the way the Sox have blundered with recent trades involving Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Hunter Renfroe, it’s hard to trust they’d pull that off.
And it’d have to be presented honestly by a franchise that has refused to be honest about the direction the team is heading.
There’s no shame in admitting that the team is going through a transition.
Insisting that your club is competing for a World Series title every year is a bold goal and one that is rarely realistic.
The Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992, but effectively used 2013-16 as bridge years to rebuild and reload. The Braves did the same thing, first in 2006, then again in 2013 on their way to staying a dominant force in the National League East. The Dodgers have made the playoffs in 10 straight seasons after shedding some bad contracts and resetting from 2010-12. And the Cardinals, one of the most consistent teams in baseball, use two or three seasons once a decade to reshape their roster and find a new wave of talent.
Even the best and most aggressive franchises in the sport need bridge years.
The only difference with the Red Sox is their insistence that nothing has changed on Jersey Street, that they’re continuing to operate the same way they always have and that they’re legitimate contenders in a league that’s packed with more talented rosters.
The reality is that the Red Sox aren’t particularly close. They aren’t one or two acquisitions away, not unless those acquisitions are elite players that simply don’t exist on the free agent market right now.
As presently constructed, the starting lineup is going to struggle to score runs.
Masataka Yoshida should give them a viable leadoff hitter for the first time since Betts was still on the roster and Rafael Devers is as good of a two-hole hitter as anyone in the game.
Beyond that? The lineup lacks punch.
Trevor Story and Triston Casas will have to stay healthy and have breakout years to power an offense that otherwise simply doesn’t look threatening.
Alex Verdugo has proven to be an average outfielder with only occasional stretches of above-average play. Kiké Hernandez crushes lefties, but has been mediocre against right-handed pitching.
And that’s really it.
The starting rotation has potential but it’s young and relying heavily on Sale and James Paxton to bounce back from injury-plagued seasons.
The bullpen actually looks like it could be a strength with newcomers Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen, but they’re both signed on two-year deals that would make them very easy to trade for prospects in July, when the Red Sox will likely be out of playoff contention.
Manager Alex Cora and his coaching staff are good bets to get the best out of the roster that Chaim Bloom gives them, and it’s certainly possible they could turn a below-average team into a team that, for a month or two, looks like a playoff team.
But in the big picture, this roster isn’t set up to win this year.
Barring a surprise, Devers will head into free agency primed to make $300 million-plus next winter. And the Red Sox will be in the midst of a more obvious rebuild process.
So, back to the question: should the Sox trade Sale?
Here’s a better one: why shouldn’t they?
