LAKELAND, Fla. — When Oneil Cruz was promoted to the major leagues last season, he essentially put Statcast on notice, warning that “whatever is going to get broken is going to get broken.”
In a rookie season that saw Cruz mature as a hitter over the final month, he did indeed set MLB’s stat-tracking software ablaze, registering the highest exit velocity for a batted ball in the Statcast Era and delivering the hardest-thrown assist for an infielder.
For an encore, Cruz seemed to indicate earlier this spring that his goals or sights have shifted. He wants to hit 30 home runs and collect 30 steals in the same season. Maybe 40-40, too. They’re lofty, sure, but Cruz certainly delivered on his Statcast promise last season.
Is it really smart to doubt him?
“If anybody can, it’s him,” Cal Mitchell said.
“Absolutely. For sure.” Jack Suwinski added.
“No doubt. I’ve been seeing him for four years now. He will.”
Although he would be the first to say that the Pirates’ success as a team matters more than any numbers he might produce, it’ll be fascinating to track Cruz’s statistical accomplishments this season, to see if his speed and power can add up to 20-20, 30-30 or 40-40.
The first taste of that came on Wednesday, during an 8-7 loss to the Tigers at Joker Marchant Stadium. Cruz, batting first and playing shortstop, singled in the first inning and stole second base. In the fifth, he threw his bat at a 1-1 sinker at the bottom of the zone — at 95.7 mph, no less — and easily sent it over the left-field fence.
Cruz made the swing look easy, which it most certainly was not, taking a powerful sinker out the opposite way with seemingly a flick of his wrists.
“It’s impressive,” Suwinski said. “Especially here. It’s a pretty big place. But he got it. We’re gonna see that a lot.”
If Cruz does join either club, he’ll have some impressive company. Only four MLB players have gone for 40-40, the last being Alfonso Soriano with the Nationals in 2006. Forty players have combined for 62 30-30 seasons. Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins was the most recent to do it (2021).
It’s obviously not easy — the Pirates have had two 30-30 seasons in their history, both by Barry Bonds, who did it five times throughout his career — but at the same time, when talking about Cruz and looking at what he did in 2022, it’s not nuts.
In just 87 games, Cruz hit 17 home runs ... and that’s with a pretty sizable chunk of time when Cruz struggled left-on-left and with breaking stuff.
His real improvement came later in the year when he started making better swing decisions, as Cruz hit .395 and struck out just six times over his final nine games. Looking at September on, Cruz hit .288 with six home runs and five steals in 29 games while improving his walk and strikeout rates.
Where this links up with potential milestones is whether that’s really Cruz, if he can sustain or improve those numbers. Because if you assume he plays, say, 150 games in 2022, tease yourself and multiply some of those numbers by five: 30 homers, 25 steals.
Factor in the rule changes, perhaps some added confidence and comfortability and it’s certainly possible.
“He’s special,” Suwinski said. “Strength, speed, ability, talent. It’s there. He’s definitely capable of doing really great things.”
The running might be the more underrated part of Cruz’s game.
We know about the Statcast stuff. How hard he hits balls, the incredible exit velocities and distance on some of his home runs. Cruz also had the 12th-fastest sprint speed of anyone in MLB last season at 29.9 feet per second, faster even than the speedy Ji Hwan Bae.
“I’m still faster,” Bae teased. “But one base only. Four bases, he beats me.”
That much was evident against the Tigers, when Cruz bolted toward second, took a couple strides, then hurled his 6-foot-7 frame toward the base a tick or two later, a mess of limbs beating the throw in the nick of time.
“Unbelievable,” Bae said. “Especially with his size, moving that fast. It’s amazing.”
The Pirates have done plenty this offseason to make themselves more interesting, improving the pitching staff and adding a couple of important veterans into the clubhouse. Great. It’s been a long time coming.
But as Wednesday’s game showed us, it’ll be downright fascinating to track what Cruz can do given his incredible amount of talent.
“It never gets old,” Mitchell said. “I’ve been watching it so long. It’s just normal for him, day-to-day stuff. But it’s certainly special.”
