The Los Angeles Rams blockbuster trade for Matthew Stafford wasn’t just about acquiring a proven veteran quarterback. It was also an admission the team’s Jared Goff bet, a four-year, $134 million contract with more than $110 million guaranteed, was a mistake.
Part of the Detroit Lions’ trade haul reflected that. Stafford didn’t fetch two first-round picks and a third on his own as a highly paid 33-year-old with zero playoff wins to his name. The Rams had to pay a premium to include Goff and his lofty paychecks in the deal. The Lions, in the midst of a rebuild (again), had room to absorb that salary and look to the future. Anything Goff could give them in the two seasons his contract was obligated to stick to the books was a bonus.
What a bonus it was. Goff revived his career in Detroit. Over the last two seasons, he’s won 21 regular season games as a starter. His 98.6 passer rating is more than seven points higher than his rating across five years as in L.A. In that stretch, 37 quarterbacks have played at least 500 snaps; Goff’s 0.173 adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play ranks seventh among them.
This led to another bet. On Monday, the Lions staked a minimum of $170 million on Goff to lead the team to its first Super Bowl.
Another done deal in Detroit: Lions are signing QB Jared Goff to a four-year, $212 million contract extension that includes $170 million guaranteed, sources tell ESPN.
Goff now goes from former No. 1 overall pick to highest-paid Lion in franchise history. pic.twitter.com/FKlQuGDf8M
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 13, 2024
Goff’s $53 million annual salary is currently the second-highest in the NFL behind only Joe Burrow. His $170 million in guarantees ranks sixth. That’s a pricy wager for a player whose only trip to a Super Bowl resulted in three total points. It’s the safest one Detroit could make.
Consider Goff’s recent rise as Sam LaPorta emerged as a viable second option in a top-heavy receiving corps. Despite a lack of deep threats, his yards-before-catch rose to 6.0 — his highest since 2019 and 13th-best in the NFL. Though he rarely threw deep (42 attempts, tied for 21st most with Desmond Ridder), he was successful with the shots he took (a 47.6 percent completion rate on throws 20-plus yards downfield, per SIS, better than Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and more).
That makes his relatively low-wattage passing attack much more palatable; if his targets are there, he can make those throws. The question now is whether Jameson Williams can be the downfield threat Detroit envisoned when it spent a first round pick on him two years ago (or maybe Donovan Peoples-Jones steps into the role).
There’s also the fact Goff was pretty, pretty, pret-tay good in the postseason. He faced the toughest competition he saw all year — including a revenge game against the Rams — and responded with some of the best football of his career in a turnover-free three-game stretch. In the 2024 NFL playoffs he was a more efficient passer than Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts (albeit in a small sample size).
There’s no such thing as a sure thing, especially for a player whose last long term contract extension became an albatross the Rams had to pay to get rid of. But Goff — who still isn’t yet 30 years old — is the best the Lions are going to get, a player that quietly embodies head coach Dan Campbell’s philosophy and sets the tone by working extremely hard in pursuit of a common goal. Rather than let him play out the lame duck final year of his contract and hope Dak Prescott not only makes it to the open market but picks Detroit, the Lions took the path of least resistance in hopes that linear growth could turn a good team into a great one.
There were no losers in the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff swap. The Rams got a Super Bowl win. The Lions got a franchise quarterback and the draft capital to accelerate their latest rebuild. Everyone came out ahead.
But, knowing what we know how — and how much Detroit values Goff — maybe the Rams could have gotten away with only including one first round pick in a do-over.
