There has been a lot of talk lately about Jared Goff’s future with the Detroit Lions. Despite his past, he’s been playing the best of his career.
This season, Goff has 3,352 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s fourth in the league in ‘air yards’ from play action, (526), he’s tied with Joe Burrow for second most 20+ yard completions, with 46, and he has the tenth best passer rating in the league, 97.9. The Lions are rolling!
Goff has been able to operate at a high-level within offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s system. It’s important to note that this offense has two of the best offensive linemen in the league in right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow. The Lions also have a dynamic rushing attack in which they can successfully execute inside & outside zone and gap-schemed runs; making it difficult for defenses to stop.
With Goff’s contract — a $31.5 million cap hit in 2023, and a dead cap hit of $40.5 million, the Lions will have him on the roster in 2023, but the question is whether he’s played good enough this year to keep him beyond that. Or if the Lions should look to the draft for their next franchise quarterback.
Let’s dive into the film!
Taking what the defense gives him.
The Lions have looked like a brand-new team after a rough start, going 1-6, but they have done a 180-degree turn, winning five out of their last six games.
- In Weeks 1-7, Goff completed 112 of 232 passes for 1,583 yards, 11 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 90.6, which put him in the middle of the pack.
- Since Week 8, Goff has completed 158 of 232 passes for 1769 yards, 11 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 104.6, which puts him fourth-best in the NFL.
For the most part, Goff has made solid decisions, especially on critical downs. On third-and-7+ the Lions have the second most conversions, 35.7%, per Football Outsiders. Goff also has the third best EPA on third downs (39.21) sitting between Tua Tagovailoa and Burrow, per Sports Info Solutions.
Against the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving, Goff ended the day with a 98.9 quarterback rating. Even though his team lost by three points, some of the throws he made were the reason why the Lions were able to keep drives alive and out of Josh Allen’s hands.
It was third-and-10, and the Bills were in a zone defense. Goff knew this because of the pre-snap motion. There was only one defender on the left side of the field against two receivers on that side.
The Lions drew up a dagger concept and Goff only had to read the cornerback. Goff stayed on the sideline with the outside receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown open.
Even though Goff had the underneath route open to possibly get a first down after the catch, he stayed in the pocket, trusts his blockers, and made a second level throw towards the sideline to his best receiver.
His offensive coordinator put him in a similar situation against the Minnesota Vikings on the touchdown throw to Jameson Williams.
The Lions motioned an extra blocker into the backfield to sell the run and it gave Goff enough the time to read the defense and exploit the busted coverage.
Goff isn’t just preforming well with play-action as he has throughout his career, but even without play-action he’s eighth in the league in passing yards with 2,428, and he also has a 15.24 EPA.
The Lions have been attacking defenses with crossers, out-routes and dig-routes. According to SIS, Goff has the highest quarterback rating (139.7) in the league when throwing digs and in-routes, going 18-for-23, while maintaining a 21.83 EPA.
Here is Goff attacking the Vikings defense last week with a dig route over the middle.
What’s even more impressive is how he performs against the blitz!
Winning against the blitz, but not under pressure.
Goff is blitzed by defenses the fourth most in the NFL, at 34.7% of his drop backs, and still has the most passing yards (1,184) when he has those extra rushers in his face.
He’s been able to get the ball out quickly and find the empty holes in the defenses:
Earlier in the season Goff had a P2S (Pressures turn to sacks) percentage of 16%, but he’s improved. Since week 9, he’s had the third best in the league, 8.3%.
So, if Goff is facing the fourth most blitzes and still has the most yards, Why are defenses still blitzing?
They will have to start giving Goff the Mahomes treatment and start dropping into coverage and letting the pass rush get home. When Goff is under that kind of pressure, he struggles.
According to PFF, Goff has the eighth-most turnover-worthy plays when under pressure, 4.8%. He has four touchdowns and four interceptions and as a 43.8% completion percentage, which is ranked 20th in the NFL behind Justin Fields and Russell Wilson.
We got a clear example of this against the Bills’ Cover-1 defense a few weeks ago.
Last week against the Vikings, their defense pressured Goff on 11 dropbacks, and he only had three completions.
Here’s what it looked like then Goff faced seven defenders dropping back into coverage and the defense preformed a successful stunt:
Looking into the crystal ball.
The Lions have been doing a great job putting their players in positions to win. Most teams have a nightmare matching up against the Lions’ offense because of how successful the run game is, paired with how Goff has been able to handle the blitz.
It’s the teams that have an above average pass rush and a solid secondary that end up beating Goff and the Lions. Teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, and New England Patriots.
Total dropback EPA by coverage ID (via TruMedia/PFF) pic.twitter.com/WRiVFbcfrG
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) December 15, 2022
We can see in the graph above that the defensive coverages Goff struggles against most are what we’ve covered above. Extra defensive backs in a ‘quarters’, and also ‘cover 1’.
We have to give Goff credit. He’s been playing the best football of his career, but there is a reason why he isn’t in the top-ten of passes completed per game and completion percentage and yet he’s tenth overall in pass attempts per game, with 34.2.
Goff is sixth overall in first downs with 172, but 26th in completions ‘past the sticks’ when moving or shuffling his fee, with only nine.
Outside of the structure of the offense, Goff hasn’t been able to extend plays and really make something out of nothing. Unless he is able to do that, the passer in this scheme isn’t sustainable in the long run against today’s NFL defensive coordinators.
Right now, the Lions need to ride this wave of success with Goff. But their best shot for long-term success is to grab a quarterback in next year’s draft who can sit and learn behind Goff for half or maybe even the entire 2023 season.
