A government-commissioned panel of experts in Japan has largely supported the country's new energy policy, which aims to bolster renewables to make up half of electricity needs by 2040. The plan also emphasizes maximizing the use of nuclear power as Japan seeks to accommodate the growing power demand in the era of AI while meeting decarbonization targets.
The draft plan, presented by the Industry Ministry, is currently under final review by a panel of 16 members from business, academia, and civil groups. The proposal calls for increasing the share of nuclear energy to 20% of Japan's energy supply by 2040, up from 8.5% last year. It also aims to expand renewables to 40-50% from the current 22.9% and reduce coal-fired power to 30-40% from nearly 70% last year.
The current energy policy, dating from 2021, set targets for 2030 at 20-22% for nuclear energy, 36-38% for renewables, and 41% for fossil fuels. The demand for low-carbon energy sources like renewables and nuclear is rising due to the needs of data centers using AI and semiconductor factories across Japan.
The Industry Minister emphasized the importance of strengthening Japan's energy security by diversifying energy sources. He highlighted the need to maximize the use of both renewables and nuclear power, stating that the country's future growth depends on securing decarbonized energy.
Japan has committed to achieving net zero emissions of climate-warming gases by 2050 and a 73% reduction by 2040 compared to 2013 levels. The draft energy plan places renewables as the primary power source and calls for the development of next-generation energy sources such as solar batteries and portable solar panels.
While the plan outlines various risk scenarios, including potential challenges in investment and cost reduction for renewables, some experts have raised concerns about the lack of a feasibility outlook for 2040 and a clear roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. The plan also advocates for accelerating the restarts of reactors meeting post-Fukushima safety standards and constructing next-generation reactors at decommissioned plant sites.
However, achieving the 20% nuclear energy target by 2040 would require bringing all 33 workable reactors in Japan back online, with only 14 currently operational following the Fukushima disaster. Experts suggest that meeting this target may be challenging given the pace of safety checks by the nuclear regulation authority.
Despite criticisms and doubts about feasibility, Japan remains committed to developing advanced reactors and a struggling spent fuel reprocessing program in its pursuit of a complete nuclear fuel cycle.
