Japan’s ruling coalition is projected to maintain its majority in an upper house election held Sunday, two days after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who led the bloc to numerous victories during his term as premier.
Exit polling from national broadcaster NHK and other major media said the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito were projected to win at least 69 seats, well above the 56 seats they needed to retain the majority. If the two score more than 69 seats combined, they would increase their majority in the body.
Sympathy votes following Abe’s death seem to have swung the balance in some constituencies, according to Shigenobu Tamura, a former LDP staffer turned political commentator. But that didn’t appear to lead to a major surge in seats for the ruling bloc, which had been projected by the Yomiuri newspaper before the killing to take between 65-80 seats. It now appears to be on track for 69-83, according to NHK.
Current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had been seeking a solid victory for his long-ruling LDP that could bolster his grip over the party and open the way for a “golden three years” in which he need not face another national election. Kishida has placed a top priority on his “New Capitalism” plan aimed at sharing the fruits of growth more widely.
Half the seats in the less powerful upper house are contested every three years, with an extra vacant seat also up for grabs this time, for a total of 125 out of the 248-strong chamber.
“From the point of view of the Japanese economy, it is a very good thing for the LDP to win and gain a stable three years,” said Takashi Hiroki, executive officer at Monex Inc. “The markets were worried about the Kishida administration at first, but he is now taking a business perspective and monetary policy is also on the right track.”
Following the election, Kishida will face a raft of challenges, including finding ways to revive the lackluster economy and tackle inflation, as COVID-19 infections start to rise again.
“The government will prepare focused policies to deal with the characteristics of Japanese price rises, which are energy and food inflation,” Kishida told Fuji TV after polls closed. “At the same time, we will raise wages. It’s important that these two things are a set.” He later said he wasn’t planning to reimpose COVID-19 restrictions at this point.
Kishida needs to pick a successor to Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, who has steered the country’s ultra-easy monetary policy. Kishida also faces a tricky debate over his pledge to radically upgrade Japan’s military and push through a commensurate increase in spending.
Kishida’s LDP alone was set to win at least 59 seats, up on the 55 it held before the election, NHK said. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party was set to win between 13-20 seats, down from the 23 it held before the vote. The right-wing opposition Japan Innovation Party was forecast to win at least 10, compared with six previously.
When Kishida entered the election room at LDP headquarters, the premier and members of his ruling party had a moment of silence for Abe. Japan’s longest-serving premier and a figure of enduring influence, Abe died after being shot at a campaign event Friday.
With more than two-thirds of upper house seats likely to be taken by lawmakers in favor of changing Japan’s pacifist constitution, discussion is likely to heat up. Kishida’s former boss Abe was one of the most outspoken proponents of a stronger military and of revising the pacifist constitution to add an explicit reference to Japan’s Self-Defense Forces. The idea of changing the document, which has been unchanged for more than seven decades, remains divisive among voters.
