Leeds United's 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace on Monday night moved them five points clear of Everton in 18th place and onto 34 points. In the last five seasons, 35 points has been enough to secure Premier League safety, so moving to within one point of that target with five games to go should have made the Whites feel they were practically safe.
However, as things stand, it looks like the total needed will be higher this year as Everton and Burnley are close behind Jesse Marsch 's side, with Burnley picking up two wins in a week to overhaul Everton and climb to 31 points, just three behind Leeds and with more favourable fixtures ahead. Meanwhile, Everton are on 29 points, five behind Leeds but with a game-in-hand.
Speaking on Sky Sports' Monday Night Football, Jamie Carragher predicted the points total that would be required. The former Liverpool defender said that he felt it would take 37 to stay up this season:
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"I think Everton will get to 35. I think they’ll all get to that. Burnley and Everton will be watching tonight. They’ll be desperate Leeds lose the game. When I look at the number they’re on now, I don’t think 35 will be enough, I think you’re talking another two points. I think the next couple of games, the contrast with Burnley to Leeds and Everton, in terms of quality of the opposition, is where they can ram it home to put themselves in a position. If Burnley can beat Watford and Everton go into a game against Chelsea, five points above, psychologically that’s a huge affect."
Given that the Whites are only three points away from that total, whilst Everton require eight more points to get there, Leeds are favourites, even with difficult fixtures remaining. Less than two weeks ago, it looked as if the bar would be significantly lower, but Burnley's form since the sacking of Sean Dyche has changed the picture. Carragher expressed surprise about the way the Clarets have responded.
"I was very critical of the change, along with a lot of people in the game. At this moment it’s worked for them but I do truly believe that is Sean Dyche was given the funds he maybe should have had, I don’t think Burnley will be in this position because we’ve seen that year in, year out. But there has been a change, not just in terms of results, but how they’ve gone about it.
"The actual aerial duels show they’re trying to keep the ball on the floor and play a different type of style. We saw that with the goal. The big thing that stands out is that they actually like they're going to score a goal. Under the new manager, every game they’ve looked a bigger threat in terms of goals.
"Someone like McNeil can make a big difference. He’s the one player in the Burnley team, he’s got that bit of class to make a clever pass and there was evidence of that in the weekend."
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