When the Cleveland Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, they didn’t just ship a boatload of team-building draft picks south for a player under investigation following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL would later deem “predatory behavior.” They also handed Watson a curve-shattering, fully guaranteed extension worth $230 million over five years.
It was an unprecedented deal. That 100 percent guaranteed contract was by far the largest in league history, outshining Kirk Cousins’ 2018 Minnesota Vikings by two years and an extra $146 million. Good-to-great quarterbacks have always earned massive paychecks in a league where guys like Mark Sanchez, Jimmy Garoppolo and Joe Flacco have all led the league in salary cap hits in the past two decades. The question now was whether Watson’s truly absurd deal would set the new standard for other teams to follow or be a trade-induced fit of Browns ephemera.
Now that Jalen Hurts has signed a fresh extension to make him the NFL’s highest-paid player, it looks like the latter.
The #Eagles and Jalen Hurts agreed to terms on a five-year, $255 million contract extension that makes him the highest-paid player in NFL history, sources tell me and @RapSheet.@AgentNicoleLynn negotiated the deal, which includes $179.304M in guarantees and a no-trade clause. pic.twitter.com/NsLzULcE1M
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) April 17, 2023
The Philadelphia Eagles locked down the quarterback who took them to Super Bowl 57 with a five-year, $255 million contract with $110 million guaranteed at signing. All told, he’ll make $179-plus million in guaranteed money thanks to the structure of his contract and the way the league’s salary cap works out. It’s a huge amount of cash, but it still clocks in at $50 million less than Watson got — and it’s in line with what we’ve seen from other young quarterbacks in recent years.
Kyler Murray’s five-year extension in Arizona covered five years and $230 million with $103 million guaranteed up front but $189 million in practical guarantees over time. In 2021, Dak Prescott signed a four-year, $160 million pact in Dallas with $95 million in guarantees the day of and $126 million locked in over the life of the deal. That same year, Josh Allen took home a six-year contract worth $258 million and $150 in guaranteed cash all considered. Patrick Mahomes got a 10-year, $450 million deal with the Chiefs in 2020 with more than $141 million in guarantees.
Like Murray and Prescott, Hurts got a massive annual salary and the assurance that more than 70 percent of his overall deal will be paid out. If anything, his overall guarantees clock in a little on the low side; $179 million represents 70.2 percent of his total contract value, less than non-Watson players like Murray (82 percent), Jared Goff (82 percent), Prescott (78 percent) or Ryan Tannehill (77 percent).
This is all to say that the league appears to be moving forward as usual when it comes to quarterback contracts. The Browns didn’t break the scale by locking in Watson (-0.042 adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play last season, 36th among 42 qualified quarterbacks). General managers and players across the landscape seem to understand that was a special circumstance related to a trade demand and one franchise seemingly determined to trip on its own feet whenever given the chance.
This only creates further intrigue for the standoff that’s not-so-quietly unfolded throughout this offseason and the last. Lamar Jackson doesn’t have a long term contract. He’s set to play out 2023 under the non-exclusive franchise tag, assuming he signs it and isn’t traded this spring. He wants out of Baltimore, but he’s also happy to have Odell Beckham Jr. in town now that the former All-Pro has signed with the Ravens.
There’s a lot going on between the two sides and it’s unclear what exactly has happened. The Ravens have reportedly made overtures on a deal similar to what Murray received. Jackson demurred and rumors swirled that he may be using Watson’s deal as the measuring stick for any deal he might be offered going forward.
If that’s the case, well, good luck. Hurts on-field highs haven’t hit the sublime beauty of Jackson’s 2019 MVP campaign, but he’s had significantly more success in the postseason than his mid-Atlantic peer (Hurts is 2-2 in the playoffs with an 84.7 passer rating. Jackson is 1-3 with a 68.3 mark). The Eagle quarterback has been significantly better in the regular season as well, thanks in part to the injuries that have limited Jackson to only 24 games the last two years. Hurts’ 0.174 EPA/play is fifth-best in the NFL since 2021; Jackson’s 0.107 ranks 16th.
Jackson’s best bet for a fully guaranteed contract was to unite his fellow young QBs and create a rising tide where everyone held to that standard. Instead, Hurts opted for a ton of money and a traditional deal. That dings the already-slim chances of anyone replicating the Browns-Watson extension, though it does create a more reasonable measuring stick for a contract. But on the plus side, it does give Jackson a new benchmark when it comes to a typical franchise player deal.
We don’t know what’s going on behind closed doors with the Ravens and their star, possibly unwanted quarterback. We do know Jalen Hurts took the Eagles to a Super Bowl and was rewarded with the richest salary in NFL history at $51 million annually. And we have more evidence that fully guaranteed contracts, even for rising star passers, are going to be an anomaly rather than a harbinger of things to come.
