The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off their bye week, ideally refreshed and refocused for their final stretch of the 2024 season as they host Houston this weekend.
This will be a crucial six-game marathon for the Jaguars as the future around the coaching staff and front office hangs in the balance following a lowly 2-9. On a positive note, franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears closer to returning to play this week after missing two games with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder.
While Jacksonville almost certainly won’t make the postseason, it could begin to cause some panic among Houston fans with an upset.
Jaguars Wire takes a closer look at some of the key matchups for this weekend.
Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Houston CB Derek Stingley Jr.
This one-on-one battle represents two gifted athletes who will be among the best players at their respective positions for years to come. Stingley has been playing at a high level this season and is one of Houston’s best defenders while Thomas has emerged as one of the better young wide receivers in the league and one of the faces of Jacksonville’s future.
It can’t be emphasized enough how crucial of a matchup this is. Thomas has played well the last several weeks and emerged as the Jaguars’ top playmaker this year. With Lawrence potentially back under center, the team’s first-round selection this year could see his target share increase.
Stingley is one of the best man-cover corners in the game. He uses his size, technique, and pure athleticism to shut down any receiver who lines up against him. Thomas offers the skill set to beat man defenders at will with the incredible fluidity, short-area quickness and ultra-explosiveness that has made him a three-level threat.
If Thomas wins this battle, Jacksonville will be one step closer to pulling off an upset.
Jaguars’ offensive line vs. Texans’ defensive line
For as bad as things have been for the Jaguars this season, their offensive line remains steady, especially in the interior. The team has allowed the sixth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (28.7%) and will take on a Texans’ defense that ranks third in pressure rate (40.3%).
Winning in the trenches has been an up-and-down battle for Jacksonville all season and Sunday features a chance to win there on both sides of the ball. According to Next Gen Stats, Jaguars guards Exra Cleveland and Brandon Scherff and center Mitch Morse have all allowed pressure on under five percent of their pass-blocking snaps.
The edges are where it gets tricky as tackles Walker Little and Anton Harrison will be going up against Texans defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., one of the best pass-rushing duos in the league. Jacksonville will need its young tackles to have quality starts to slow down Houston’s pass rushers.
This is not a favorable matchup for the Jaguars. It could be if Harrison and Little can stay consistent in their pass-blocking sets and generate momentum in the run game on the edges, which will be key in taking on the No. 5 defense in yards allowed.
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Jacksonville run defense
One of the stories of the Jaguars this season has been their putrid defensive play in almost all facets, especially against the run where they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards in the NFL (135.5).
However, interestingly enough, they have defended the run well on outside-designed runs. Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards over expected (-65) and the seventh-lowest success rate (34.0%) on those specific play calls, according to Next Gen Stats.
Defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker have been big reasons for Jacksonville’s success against outside runs. Walker is third on the team in run stops (35) and Hines-Allen has 23 on the season. Their power at the point of attack and discipline against the run has been very notable this year.
This week, they’ll take on Mixon, who has run nine of his touchdowns to the outside and has the fifth-most RYOE (+116) in that area in the NFL. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik tends to use the outside zone to work away from the tackle box and stress defenders on the edges.
Setting the edge will be key for the Jaguars, especially against Mixon. Walker and Hines-Allen must do their job to squeeze their respective gaps and become force defenders to bottle Mixon inside.
If the Jaguars can limit Mixon’s ability to stretch the edge, Jacksonville will have a chance to pull off a nice victory on Thanksgiving weekend.
