It’s no coincidence Jacinta Allan chose Brighton – a bayside suburb of Melbourne with a median property price of $3.3m – to unveil her most significant policy to date.
With a reputation as a wealthy, predominately white enclave, and as the centre of a safe Liberal electorate of the same name, it is unlikely the Labor premier had many fans in the area on Sunday, even before she announced her bold plan to seize planning controls around Middle Brighton and North Brighton train stations.
The stations are just two of 50 activity centres the government has earmarked for increased density, with plans for “taller buildings” of 10 to 20 storeys near train and tram stations, along with “gentler, scaled” height limits further away.
Others include the similarly well-heeled stations of Armadale, Glenferrie, Glen Iris, Malvern and Toorak.
The government claims these centres were identified by the Department of Transport and Planning due to their proximity to public transport, infrastructure, jobs and services.
But Allan was also quick to note they are also the areas many young people are “locked out”, putting the blame at local Liberal MPs who “chased local votes and blocked the building of more homes in their community”.
A few dozen locals proved her point when they gathered outside Half Moon hotel in Brighton, where the premier was making her announcement to voice their fury, chanting: “Shame, premier, shame.”
Among them was a woman who told 7 News Melbourne “homeless people” cannot afford “a million dollars for an apartment in Brighton”, as well as a man in a Ferrari-branded polo shirt and the local Liberal MP, James Newbury, who fired up the crowd by warning of potential “20-storey apartment” towers in their streets.
A Victoria Labor MP told Guardian Australia: “We got the Liberals hook, line and sinker. They responded exactly as we expected them to.”
Through this policy – and several others including stamp duty concessions for off-the-plan developments announced on Monday – Allan is setting the stage for an election in 2026 fought on housing.
She is trying to frame herself as the champion for young people in the housing debate, with the opposition and nimbys as the villains.
It’s a politically clever move given that millennial and gen Z voters, who now outnumber baby boomers on the electoral roll, continue to cite housing affordability as their top concern.
According to Tony Barry, a former senior Liberal staffer who is now a director at the political consultancy outfit RedBridge, even older voters are increasingly voicing concerns about housing affordability, expressing unprompted in focus groups a desire for their children and grandchildren to live nearby.
“Housing attainability is the great political faultline in Australian politics and every political party’s response needs to be carefully calibrated or voters will see right through it because of its salience as an issue,” Barry said.
So far, he said, Labor had been able to wedge the Liberal party on the issue.
The former Labor campaigner and Socially Democratic podcast host Stephen Donnelly said Allan’s announcement was both “good public policy and smart politics”.
“Do the Liberals embrace Labor’s plan for higher-density housing around transport hubs – which is what a whole generation of Melburnians locked out of the market are desperate for – or do they keep taking the path of protecting the status quo?” he said.
Donnelly said the situation drew parallels to the 2018 election, when Daniel Andrews campaigned on a plan to remove dozens of level crossings. While the opposition and some locals campaigned against the “sky rail”, the quick rollout of the program and the visible, tangible benefits it delivered to communities made it an electoral success.
Allan’s housing policy may be more difficult to achieve, given the slow pace of housing construction. The government has revised its target – set as part of its housing statement in September 2023 – of building 80,000 homes a year, now framing it as 800,000 homes over the next decade.
But after a year as leader focused primarily on reversing key Andrews-era policies – including scrapping youth bail reform, walking away from raising the age of criminal responsibility to 14 and ditching a second safe injecting room in Melbourne’s city centre – the plan finally provides a point of distinction for Allan’s government.
It could also offer something for progressive voters to rally behind, though it is likely some within the party will join the Greens in pushing for increased public and social housing in any new developments.
Julijana Todorovic from Labor for Housing emphasised this need: “It is a fantastic announcement that will make a meaningful difference to the lives of millennials and zoomers but we can’t abandon social and affordable housing or our desire to have mandatory inclusionary zoning.”
If Allan can navigate these challenges, it could boost her standing in the polls and give voters a compelling reason to consider reelecting a third-term government – though, perhaps, not in Brighton.
