Separating the Los Angeles Clippers from the Kawhi Leonard injury circus lowered their expectations entering the 2024-25 NBA season. Many projected them to fight for a Play-In slot or miss the playoffs entirely without Leonard’s services. But the Clippers are exceeding those expectations to this point, currently tied for the Western Conference’s fifth seed at 24-19.
James Harden and even Norman Powell will garner a majority of the credit, but Ivica Zubac’s growth deserves as much as any Clipper. He’s having his best season, tallying a career-high 15.0 points, 12.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game on a true shooting clip (61.7 percent) comfortably above the league’s average.
This edition of the Clippers doesn’t have a surplus of excellent creators and passers outside of Harden and the entry-passing extraordinaire Nicolas Batum. Without signal callers to feed him easy shots, especially when Harden is on the bench, Zubac turned to self-creation.
An Offensive Breakout
He’s posting up more than ever, logging a career-high 4.2 post-ups per game, placing him in the 97th percentile for post-up frequency. Volume hasn’t historically been Zubac’s forte; his second-highest post-up frequency came in 2022, when he recorded 1.8 opportunities per game.
ivica zubac is putting together a career scoring season posting up more than ever — 4.2 possessions per game (97th %tile) while maintaining above league avg efficiency
his offensive floor raising in lineups has been huge for LAC this yr pic.twitter.com/hcLwMK7VkH
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 22, 2025
It’s natural for efficiency to decline when players see more volume, especially unassisted volume. Teammates are assisting more scarcely than ever on Zubac’s shots at the rim; his 64.6 percent rim assist rate is a career-low. Still, his post-up efficiency hovers just above the league’s average (1.01 points per possession, 57th percentile).
Zubac bruises defenders in the post as always, overpowering frail bigs with his strength. He’ll turn over both shoulders to score with either hand, finding a counter for whichever way the defense chooses to play him. Defenses often respond to his low-block touches with traps and blitzes, a coverage he’s shredding more frequently than ever.
Scaled-up scoring necessitates a baseline of passing vision to punish overly aggressive defenses. Zubac has hit career-highs this season in assist rate (12.2 percent), on-ball rate (11 percent) and potential assists per 100 possessions (6.4), as well as a career-low in bad pass rate (10.5 percent), according to NBA RAPM.
Take Los Angeles’ recent victory over its cross-town rivals in the Lakers as an example. Zubac dropped an efficient 21 points, with many of his buckets coming against smaller defenders on switches or backup bigs. When the Lakers blitzed Zubac to slow his scoring, he found shooters and cutters for wide-open looks.
i continue to enjoy ivica zubac’s passing this season, he’s hit career highs in assist rate, potential assists and on ball rate in more of a playmaking role. lowest bad pass rates as well, per @databallr
love how he’s seeing the floor this year, especially vs doubles pic.twitter.com/HAUwAZoWG4
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 20, 2025
Zubac Is Indispensable On Both Ends For The Clippers
Zubac’s positive impact on lineups is nothing new, especially on the defensive end. He’s boosted defensive units throughout his career; his defensive on-off sits above the 50th percentile in all but two of his 10 seasons, according to Cleaning the Glass. His on-off differential this season, though — a gigantic plus-13.2 — is by far the highest of his long career.
With Zubac on the court this season, the Clippers’ offense improves by 7.1 points per 100 possessions. Shockingly, Zubac hasn’t posted a positive on-off swing offensively since his rookie season (plus-1.5). More than ever before, he is carrying Los Angeles’ offensive production. On-off stats are inherently noisy, but they reflect Zubac’s growth as we previously discussed.
We can point to the Clippers’ lack of frontcourt depth and Zubac’s tethering to Harden — he’s played just 288 minutes without Harden on the floor, albeit with a still-productive plus-4.7 net rating — as possible explanations for this outlier offensive season.
But beyond his individual statistical success, Zubac’s presence tangibly amplifies his teammates, notably Harden. Past the peak of his physical powers, Harden relies on a sturdy screener, play finisher and outlet decision-maker like Zubac to thrive.
LAC offensive rating with harden + zubac: 114.1
LAC offensive rating with harden – zubac: 105.93zubac’s presence has been huge for james harden’s success this year. such a valuable screener/finisher and short roll decision maker to open things up pic.twitter.com/ORCDJeoMgO
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 22, 2025
The numbers back this up. When Harden and Zubac share the floor this season, the Clippers post a sturdy 114.1 offensive rating, according to PBP Stats. When Harden plays and Zubac rides the pine, that offensive rating craters to 105.9 with an overall net rating of minus-10. Unsurprisingly, those lineups plummet to a defensive rating of nearly 116 without Zubac anchoring the paint.
When Zubac isn’t playing, the Clippers turn to Mo Bamba, who pales in comparison to Zubac as a complementary big man. Los Angeles’ center-less lineups don’t suit Harden well either; Harden’s 188 minutes without a center on the floor produce a minus-6.3 net rating. Defenses can switch everything when wings screen for Harden and he struggles to consistently break that coverage at this stage of his career.
harden’s life is much tougher without zubac, bamba just isn’t the screener or decision maker to make his life easier, leading to more tough shots and turnovers pic.twitter.com/orHMG3eT1b
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 22, 2025
Historically, Zubac synergizes with Leonard; the Clippers have recorded a plus-9.8 net rating in their 3,247 career minutes together. An upgraded Zubac paired with Leonard, Harden and a sizzling Powell could produce potent offensive results for a defensively slanted Clippers team.
Zubac is the keystone for Los Angeles’ third-ranked defense. He anchors the middle with his great hands, positioning and elite rebounding. He’s the most productive rebounder in the NBA, posting a 95th percentile offensive rebounding rate (13.8 percent) and 98th percentile defensive rebounding rate (33.8 percent). Managing a stellar defensive season — he ranks fifth in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus with the best rebounding numbers of any big man — while progressing on offense is no easy feat.
The Clippers will reach as far as their two big-name stars will take them. That’s an unfortunate reality for a team reliant on injury-prone stars as much as Los Angeles is. We shouldn’t take Zubac’s play this season for granted, though, regardless of how far the Clippers go. If they’re able to manage a miraculous playoff run, his paramount two-way play will certainly contribute.
