As in the past, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is eyeing a third seat in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections, ideally in North Kerala.
While formal discussions are yet to take place within the party or the United Democratic Front (UDF), IUML leaders have subtly indicated their interest in contesting a third seat, including Wayanad, if Congress leader Rahul Gandhi decides not to seek re-election from the constituency. The other preferred seats are Vadakara or Kasaragod.
Since the creation of the Wayanad Parliamentary constituency in 2009, the IUML has been advocating for a third seat for various reasons, especially the overwhelming support it receives from the party-backed Samastha Kerala Jem-Iyyathul Ulama, which calls for better representation for the Muslim community in the Lok Sabha.
Traditionally, the party has been contesting two seats in Malappuram district — Ponnani and Malappuram (formerly Manjeri) — in the seat-sharing formula within the UDF.
In 2014, simmering differences arose between the IUML and the Congress that became public, but the issue was eventually resolved. In 2019, the IUML raised the same concern, but the scene changed when Rahul Gandhi entered the electoral race from Wayanad.
However, now the party enjoys endorsement from disgruntled Congress leader K. Muraleedharan, representing the Vadakara constituency. As the UDF’s second-largest constituent, IUML leaders claim that that Congress candidates have been winning Lok Sabha seats due to its considerable influence in north Kerala.
However, Congress functionaries are cautious about the approach of IUML leaders. They do not want to surrender any seat, particularly when the party’s arch-rivals in Kerala, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)], are determined to win as many seats as possible after its dismal performance in the 2019 polls, where it managed to win just one out of the 20 seats.
Besides, the Congress leadership does not want to gamble by yielding any additional seats to the IUML, giving the impression that it is bowing to that party’s demands. It still remembers the bitter experience when they offered a fifth Ministerial position to the IUML in the Oommen Chandy Cabinet in 2012.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the CPI(M) won five seats while the Congress had to settle for eight, down by five from the 2009 elections. Notably, the Kerala Congress (M), once part of the UDF, is now a coalition partner of the LDF.
Congress general secretary (organisational) K.C. Venugopal has already stated that all sitting MPs are likely to contest, and the Central leadership would prefer Mr. Gandhi to stand from the Wayanad constituency. His candidacy was also one of the factors that greatly contributed to stunning victories for Congress candidates in Malabar in the previous election.
