Whether Aaron Rodgers playing for the Minnesota Vikings is actually something under consideration by the Minnesota brain trust or simply a manifestation of the quarterback’s deepest wishes that he hopes to impart on Kevin O’Connell via osmosis, it’s not as strange as it sounds. In fact, it’s so sensible that I’m not quite sure why the Vikings haven’t snapped Rodgers off that quiet beach enclave yet and wrapped him in a purple towel.
While I am admittedly one of the people who thinks that last year’s tragedy-comedy was far more in the hands of owner Woody Johnson than in the lap of the mercurial, 40-something quarterback and was heavily encouraging of the New York Jets to put themselves at Rodgers’s feet in the first place, it isn’t hard to come up with several reasons why the Vikings shouldn’t dawdle any longer before delivering an absolute offseason sledgehammer.
In fact, here are four:
1. Scarcity
I would imagine that Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah understands this better than anyone. While the decision is likely in the hands of O’Connell, fresh off an extension that gives him a significant amount of power within the facility halls, Adofo-Mensah is constantly studying landscapes. For almost the entirety of the past decade, success has come from developing both a glut at the position and slow-playing the eventual start of a rookie’s career. This offseason, we have seen just how desperate a situation becomes when the first wave of potential starters sign at the beginning of free agency and the other teams battle it out on the fringes. There will absolutely be a grappling for Joe Flacco at the back end of free agency this year and, potentially, another notable deal for Kirk Cousins, who again finds himself as the belle of the ball. Jameis Winston is making visits. Let me repeat: Jameis Winston is making visits.
The Vikings are in a unique situation where, even though they have another quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, another wants to come in specifically for the opportunity to be a bridge starter, have plays called by O’Connell and to throw to Justin Jefferson. Aside from Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams, who signed potential starter Jimmy Garoppolo to be a backup despite Garoppolo having starting options elsewhere, the Vikings are in a position for a very short period of time in which they can dictate how the cards are laid out across three teams—the Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants—across both conferences.
2. What we get wrong about the rookie contract
There is always this asinine push for teams to succeed when the quarterback is on a rookie contract. This is one of the chief arguments many have against the Vikings signing Rodgers, as it would take another year of McCarthy’s ultimate affordability away. The argument that teams can do so much more when a quarterback is on a rookie deal feels silly given how rarely talented players actually make it to free agency or the place where a team is willing to trade them. The Chicago Bears got three Pro Bowl seasons out of Khalil Mack while trying to supercharge the remainder of the Mitch Trubisky deal, which was the last time I can remember that a truly game-altering player in need of a market-topping extension changed hands.
When the Cincinnati Bengals made the Super Bowl in 2021 while operating on Joe Burrow’s contract, the team added Trey Hendrickson at a stunningly low APY rate (I wrote about that year’s totally undervalued edge rusher market here), Chidobe Awuzie for three years and $21 million and tackle Riley Rieff. Because the Bengals released Geno Atkins that year, they saved money on the Rieff transaction. My point in bringing that up is that almost any team could manage that kind of offseason. An (at the time) middle-tier cost defensive end, cornerback and patch tackle are the salt of free agency earth every offseason whether you have a quarterback who costs $9 million or $49 million per year.
Also, winning with a quarterback on a rookie deal is great, especially if you are an owner. I think what we overlook here is that it’s a kind of game that general managers play. How successful can they be while also pacifying the person who wants to write fewer checks? The Philadelphia Eagles just won a Super Bowl with a top-of-market quarterback, two high-end receivers, two high-end tackles and an expensive running back. The backbone of that roster was, again, well-drafted corners and safeties in the late first or second round of the draft or the chum of veteran free agency.
My point is that we get the ideal situation confused with the norm. As long as a team has a competent general manager and an owner willing to spend cash, the quarterback contract is not nearly as prohibitive as it’s made out to be. As one agent reminds me time and time again, the NFL salary cap is the biggest excuse for not signing talent in American professional sports.
3. Super Bowl window
The Vikings’ window to win a Super Bowl is right now. Generously, this defense has a chance to be as wildly effective as it was a year ago for one more season. This assemblage of players and their relationships with coordinator Brian Flores has such a short shelf life. This is true because all generationally good defenses struggle to maintain their status as long as good offenses, and the Vikings are an interesting case in that their effectiveness comes mostly from field smarts and communication. The most integral players in that mix are a 36-year-old Harrison Smith, a soon to be 29-year-old Blake Cashman and a soon to be 30-year-old Andrew Van Ginkel. It’s also true because there’s a good chance Flores gets a head coaching job next season (a virtual certainty if the Vikings are as good this year as they were a year ago). It’s mind-boggling that teams often view their trajectories in anything but short two-year windows given the amount of uncertainty and the number of pitfalls that can strike a team at any time (not to mention free agency and the purge that often befalls talented coaching staffs).
Rodgers was 22nd last year in terms of an EPA and completion percentage over expectation composite, though by that same metric, Jared Goff was the best quarterback in the NFL last year (so take it with a grain of salt). Rodgers was in a similar tier of effectiveness as Matthew Stafford, who was basically a few throws from upsetting the Super Bowl champion Eagles in the playoffs. Stafford was also the most coveted quarterback on the market this offseason despite throwing fewer touchdowns than Rodgers and just three fewer interceptions.
It would be quite a reach to assume that McCarthy would outplay Rodgers next year, especially if Rodgers was in an offense with O’Connell and would have better than one of the least efficient run games in the NFL, as was the case with the Jets last year. Rodgers would also be another year removed from his Achilles injury.
Suppose McCarthy, who is younger (22) and less physically mature than all of the other first-round draft prospects who had solid showings a year ago, somehow comes into camp at an ideal weight and recovery space from his 2024 preseason knee injury. In that case, this fourth item should address the idea that Rodgers is unnecessary on the roster.
4. We misunderstand inside-the-building Rodgers
If you think Rodgers and his thoughts on life, science or politics are off the beaten path, I challenge you to spend more than 30 minutes in any NFL locker room listening to idle chit chat. I’m not saying that all NFL players are conspiracy theorists, but I am saying that every locker room is a sort of alpha-supercharged microcosm of society. In short, he’s not necessarily an outlier.
Along those same lines, I’ve spoken to coaches who genuinely enjoyed their experience with Rodgers last year and hold him in high regard. The prevailing belief is that he was not the primary reason for the injection of chaos in Florham Park. Was that the case for every player and staffer in the building? Of course not. But you could say this about almost any star player in the NFL. Those who automatically assume that Rodgers equals chaos live in a world where a rudderless Jets franchise fawned over the quarterback and did everything they could to pacify him. Minnesota is an entirely different place with no roster wiggle room and little wiggle room on the offensive coaching staff to add Rodgers loyalists. He must arrive in a more submissive posture, similarly malleable as he was during the Matt LaFleur era that recharged his career.
All that said, because of the respect O’Connell has garnered, the 2024 Coach of the Year has not only the cachet to reign Rodgers in as an on-field play-caller and force him to inject more of a running game but the cachet to bench (or trade!) Rodgers, if McCarthy ends up making the competition a no-brainer during training camp or the early stages of practice. Again, while I see it as unlikely that Rodgers would get outplayed by McCarthy in camp, imagine the tailwind that it would provide the second-year quarterback to know that he unseated one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.
Even so, the Jets owner broached the idea that Rodgers should be benched multiple times a year ago. Rodgers is at the stage in his career where it would be hard to imagine him effectively using his bully pulpit on ESPN to poison the well if the situation in Minnesota goes south and, with O’Connell, he would undoubtedly lose the benefit of the doubt given the coach’s work with Sam Darnold.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as It’s Time for the Vikings to Sign Aaron Rodgers.
