Here we are again looking right down the barrel of a government shutdown because one-half of one of the three branches of the federal government is completely dysfunctional under GOP leadership.
We're talking about the Republican House of Representatives of course. They are simply incapable of passing legislation. 2023 was the least productive year since the Great Depression with Congress passing just 27 pieces of legislation that became law. In 1948 President Harry Truman famously called the legislative branch the "Do Nothing Congress" because they only managed to pass 511 bills.
This is the third time in six months that the country has been on the brink of a shutdown because the hard right in the House is holding their breath until they turn blue. It's not clear what they want except perhaps to cause more chaos. The last time it cost Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., his job as Speaker of the House and the same fate may very await current Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., as well. There's nothing in his performance so far that suggests he has the skill or the desire to finesse this situation.
There's no need to reiterate the saga that continues over Ukraine and border funding. We know that both parties came to the table and negotiated in good faith to come to an agreement on both of those issues to meet the demands of the right-wingers. But Donald Trump directed them to walk away because he believes passage of any bill will help Joe Biden in the election in the fall so they did it. So, at the moment, funding for Ukraine, the border, Israel, Taiwan and Gaza is dead and Republicans are screaming incoherently about how the border must be dealt with even though they just shot down a bill that any hard-line, immigrant-hating right-winger should have been thrilled to vote for. None of it makes any sense at all.
But there are a whole bunch of other spending bills caught in limbo as well. For now, the government continues to operate on the 2022 budget passed by the Democrat-controlled House led by Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. As it stands, unless they pass another continuing resolution or come to some kind of agreement, about 20 percent of the federal budget will shut down on March 2. The rest of the government goes down one week later, at midnight on March 9.
Johnson bought himself some time last fall when he first succeeded McCarthy and managed to pass the continuing resolution that's coming due this week. The House returned from another extended break this week (they're very tired) and found that whatever talks had been going on during their vacation had gotten nowhere. It's hard to know exactly what the hang-up is, but according to the New York Times, the far right has an assortment of demands such as the reversal of "a rule that aims to broaden access to abortion medication or a policy that could make it harder for some veterans deemed mentally ill to purchase guns." They also insist on limiting food stamps for the poor.
On Tuesday the four congressional leaders, Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell met with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in the White House to assess the lay of the land. They all reported that they were "optimistic" that they can reach an agreement — but they were short on details.
They all ganged up on Johnson, even McConnell, on the Ukraine funding, trying to get him to let that bill come to the floor so they could get it done. Johnson used to be in favor of it, but he's firmly under Trump's thumb so who knows if he'll budge on that? He's now pushing the fatuous notion that he can only do it if Biden uses executive authority to close the border immediately, as the Times reported:
After the meeting, Mr. Johnson said of the foreign assistance bill that House Republicans were still “actively pursuing and investigating all the various options on that, and we will address that in a timely manner.”
But he reiterated his stance that the effort should take a back seat to immediate action to crack down on migration at the U.S. border with Mexico. “The first priority of the country is our border and making sure it’s secure,” Mr. Johnson said. “I believe the president can take executive authority right now today to change that.”
Biden tried to educate him about how it would cost money to do that, which will only be available if they pass the bill that appropriates it.
Axios reports that one of the negotiators, Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine, thinks they could unveil a compromise as early as today. But after what the Republicans pulled with the Ukraine/border agreement it's hard to imagine how anyone could trust them to keep their word. Who knows what they'll pull out of their hat at the last minute? And has anyone consulted Dear Leader Donald Trump? In the past he has been in favor of a government shutdown because he thinks it hurts the Democrats, the same rationale he used when he ordered them to scuttle the border bill. He's a bit distracted with all his legal problems at the moment, so maybe they can slip something by before he looks up and realizes they've actually done something.
It's all up to Johnson in the end. He knows he can pass these bills in minutes and get everything funded, including Ukraine and the border, immediately if he will bring the bills to the floor and allow it to pass with Democratic votes and a handful of sane Republicans. But he may very well lose his speakership if he does that, just as McCarthy did. There is nothing so far to indicate that he has the character or the guts to sacrifice his ambition to do that even though many lives are at stake here in the U.S. and around the world. But considering that he always says that if you want to know his values all you have to do is read the Bible, if there's one guy you'd think would ask himself "What would Jesus do?" it would be Mike Johnson. So far, however, it appears he's more likely to ask himself "What would Trump do?"
Jake Sherman of Punchbowl News reports that despite promising that there would be no more continuing resolutions, Johnson has now proposed to extend the deadlines from March 1 to March 8 and March 22. There is no word as of now whether the Senate and the White House are on board or even if Johnson has the juice to persuade his right flank to allow it. One result of Johnson allowing the clock to run out repeatedly is that it makes it easy for him to just kick the can down the road instead and avoid having to take a risk. The bill has come due for the people of Ukraine and Gaza unfortunately, but at least Johnson will be able to keep his job.
