If Tehran is holding its breath, it is not because of political tensions, but the smog that envelopes the traffic-clogged capital in summertime.
Ahead of Friday’s presidential runoff between hardliner Saeed Jalili and the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian – an election that has the potential to put Iran back on course to engage with the west– members of the young middle class sitting in Tehran’s Cafe Elie compete to express their disdain for the political process.
Two teenage girls, sipping drinks and not wearing hijabs, say they do not even know the candidates’ names. Angel is a veteran of the Women, Life, Freedom protests, which erupted after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, 22, who was detained for allegedly not wearing a headscarf properly. “We feel so disappointed by what happened,” she said. “There were so many promises [after the protests], but none were kept. Instead, they have come back to enforce the hijab and to take us back to the police station. In some ways it is worse and more humiliating because of what we have been through. Politics is an irrelevance.”
Maryan, an analyst of women’s rights, said: “After Mahsa Amini there is so much anger and resentment. I even know religious people that will not vote. It does not matter if it is Pezeshkian or Jalili, because the president is just a puppet.”
A male oil engineer in a ponytail admits he caught the end of Monday’s two-hour TV debate between the candidates, adding he will probably vote to stop Jalili, and says he knows others that think if the hardliner is elected it will be the equivalent of the Taliban coming to power.
“We cannot become a closed society like North Korea. The whole history and geopolitics of Iran is one of openness to Asia and to the west. We are a country of different cultures, ethnic groups and diverse views. We need gradual change in this country, and that is what Pezeshkian represents.” But even he is not sure he will vote.
In Vali Asr square, there are two giant pictures of the candidates – the homespun 70-year-old heart surgeon Pezeshkian and the former diplomat Jalili, who opposed the nuclear deal with the west. In working-class districts just a few posters are on display. It is what Iranians describe as the coldest election ever.
Yet the first round of voting, completed last Friday, at least shattered some established Iranian myths. The first was that by allowing a reformist candidate to run, and ensuring a more competitive election, the regime could arrest a long-term decline in participation. Instead, turnout hit a record low of just 39.9% of the 61.45 million voters, including 1.2m spoiled papers. The supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, had urged every eligible Iranian to vote, and the disastrous turnout presents a crisis of legitimacy for him.
Second, it was expected that Pezeshkian could not take the lead in the first round unless turn-out reached close to 60%. Instead, he topped the poll, scoring 10.4m votes, 1m more than Jalili.
Votes for the other conservative candidates knocked out in the first round are likely to go to Jalili, so winning the election remains an uphill task for Pezeshkian. He badly needs to persuade those who abstained that they cannot afford to be indifferent on Friday, and that a Jalili presidency will plunge Iran into the dark ages for the economy, individual freedoms and foreign policy.
He is making every pitch, saying: “I know that women today don’t want someone else to decide their marriage, education, career, clothing and lifestyle,” he said. “They want to make their own choices and it is their natural right to make decisions about their lives. I respect their choices and will do my best to provide a platform for them to become the best version of themselves.”
Pezeshkian has also been going all-out to show he understands those that have lost faith in the democratic process. “The pillar of society is its people. When 60% do not come to the polls, there is a problem, people have a problem with us.”
Politicians in Iran were seen as a class apart, he argued in Monday’s TV debate. “If we want people to cooperate, people must believe that I will sit at the same table where they sit, and my children and relatives will be employed in the same way as their children and relatives are employed.” He asked why students that complained were beaten or imprisoned.
Above all, he argued that Jalili, by turning further away from the west, offered a recipe for yet more sanctions, a declining exchange rate and repression. “We want to grow in the world: the more we increase our interactions, the better we can live. Let’s start with our neighbours and then progress as far as we can.”
Pezeshkian, backed by the former foreign minister Javad Zarif, has also suggested some kind of reopening of talks with the US on the future of the nuclear deal, constantly challenging Jalili to set out his plan for the economy if sanctions are not lifted.
Peyman Jafari, assistant professor at William and Mary university in the US, warns that Jalili knows his constituency and “has shifted his focus to the rural areas and urban poor by promising social support, while some of his allies have accused Pezeshkian of planning to increase gas prices. There is still no sign that the increasing tension between the two candidates will translate into a significantly higher turnout on Friday”.
He said it was for Pezeshkian to convince such a jaded electorate of the reality of the Jalili threat. “He has a few days to do it, but it remains a daunting task.”
• This article was amended on 3 July 2024 to correct the misspelling of the surname of Masoud Pezeshkian.
