Now what? The momentum that had seemed to be with Tadej Pogačar over the past week of this Tour de France came shuddering to a halt on stage 16, where Jonas Vingegaard conjured up a performance beyond all expectations in the hybrid time trial to Combloux.
Pogačar began Tuesday's stage just ten seconds off Vingegaard's yellow jersey and he rolled down the start ramp for the time trial in Passy believing he might even do enough over the 22.4km to take the garment from the Dane. Instead, a third Tour title now looks almost beyond Pogačar after Vingegaard beat him by some 1:38 on a course that included the short sharp climb of the Côte de Domancy.
The most sobering thing about this defeat is that Pogačar's performance was not even close to a bad one. He was second on the stage, after all, some 1:13 clear of third-placed Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma). The problem was simply that Vingegaard was in a startling class of his own, clocking an average speed almost 2kph quicker than Pogačar along the course.
Pogačar began his effort two minutes before Vingegaard and, using Van Aert's times as a reference through the opening phase of the time trial, he believed he was on course for a rapid time. The complexion of his afternoon, and of his entire Tour, changed once word filtered through of Vingegaard's searing start.
"I had the time on Wout van Aert and I was really happy to be 20 seconds in front of him on top of the first climb," Pogačar said behind the podium. "I was trying to go good and I was gaining time on him, but I was losing time to Jonas, so it was a bit of a shame. But I still tried to limit the time loss to the finish line. I gave it my all."
Pogačar was already 16 seconds down on Vingegaard at the 7km mark and that deficit almost doubled on the valley road to the foot of the Côte de Domancy. The Slovenian opted to switch from his time trial bike to a road bike for the ascent, but the change of equipment did nothing to staunch the bleeding of time. Vingegaard was 1:05 ahead at the summit, and he stretched the lead out to 1:38 by the finish in Combloux.
"If I am honest, I didn't feel the best in the second part, but I still went pretty solid," Pogačar said afterwards. "I felt I was going OK, but it's a big gap now. I was hoping for less here. I was hoping to be in yellow today but that's how it is today. I hope it's like the Marie Blanque day [stage 5 – ed.], and tomorrow I can have good legs like in the first week."
Loze and the Vosges
In the overall standings, Pogačar now trails Vingegaard by 1:48, and it's hard to shake off the feeling that the outstanding rider in his generation has come up against a man who repeatedly has his number in the month of July. In the later part of his victorious 2021 Tour de France, after all, Pogačar struggled to drop Vingegaard, and he never once succeeded on last year's race, when the Dane claimed his title.
When Pogačar defeated Vingegaard at Paris-Nice in March, it felt like a significant psychological blow, but he must still have known that his Jumbo-Visma rival would prove a different kind of opponent in July, and so it has proved.
Pogačar recovered well from his heavy loss on the Col de Marie Blanque on stage 5, but since his stage win at Cauterets the following day, he has been snaffling seconds from Vingegaard rather than delivering decisive blows. Vingegaard and his Jumbo-Visma team will not be readily overcome, even if Pogačar sounded a defiant note about stage 17, which brings the race over the Col de la Loze to Courchevel, and stage 20, which should be a breathless afternoon in the Vosges.
"It's definitely not over. Especially if it's raining tomorrow, then I can promise you it's going to be interesting," Pogačar said. "There are two more really hard stages to come, I think the hardest two of this Tour. Anything can happen, and I think anyone can have a bad day. Like I said before, I hope today was like the Marie Blanque stage for me…"
It costs nothing to dream, of course, but turning this situation around would be the most wondrous feat of a career in which Pogačar has performed miracles almost as a matter of routine. "We will try to make a plan," he said. "It's not easy to gain two minutes, a little bit less, but we will try."
