The simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha election to be held in Andhra Pradesh on May 13 is being called the “mother of all elections”, with a mix of revenge politics, alliance dynamics, family drama, populist welfare schemes and the evergreen caste factor adding spice to the contest.
It’s a do-or-die battle for most major players in the State, including the ruling YSR Congress as well as the Telegu Desam Party (TDP) and Jana Sena Party (JSP), both constituents of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). For any of these regional parties, unlike for the BJP, it will be hard to sustain themselves in the Opposition for the next five years. The Congress is eyeing a nascent revival and hopes to play spoiler in some areas.
The fight is evenly poised between the two main opponents. There is some anti-incumbency against the YSR Congress and voter turnout will be a key factor. While the YSR Congress appears to have an edge in rural and tribal areas due to its welfare initiatives, the NDA seems to be doing better in the urban segments.
Since Telangana was carved out of united Andhra Pradesh, the residual State of A.P. has been left with 25 Lok Sabha seats, each of which is being keenly contested between the YSR Congress and the NDA. Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy has converted each of these Parliamentary constituencies into a district, applying the principle of decentralisation. Earlier, there were only 13 districts in the State.
TDP fighting for survival
In the first decades since its inception, Andhra Pradesh was predominantly a Congress-ruled state. However, after the launch of the TDP by matinee idol N.T. Rama Rao in 1984, the power centre shifted towards the regional party, which is said to have one of the largest cadre bases among the regional outfits in India.
The Congress and the TDP have fought pitched electoral battles in the past, with the reins of power flipping between the two. However, this election promises to be a singularly high-octane contest; it will not be easy for the NDA to breach Mr. Jagan Reddy’s citadel, which is fortified by his government’s welfare schemes, but it’s a matter of political survival for the TDP’s N. Chandrababu Naidu and his party.
Return to a winning combo
In 2014, immediately after the bifurcation of the State, the TDP had joined hands with the BJP and the JSP to fight the YSR Congress, which was then making its electoral debut. Mr. Naidu won that election, with the TDP snagging 102 out of 175 Assembly seats, while its alliance partner, the BJP, won four seats. The JSP did not join the poll fray, though it lent outside support. Mr. Jagan Reddy made an impressive debut with about 70 seats. In the Lok Sabha as well, the TDP-led alliance won 16 seats, leaving nine for the YSR Congress.
Mr. Naidu’s fortunes crashed, however, when he broke off from the NDA just before the 2019 polls, miffed over the BJP-ruled Union government’s refusal to grant a Special Category Status to the State on account of its bifurcation, though it did promise a special package. Flying solo, Mr. Naidu lost the 2019 elections badly, securing just 23 Assembly seats, while the TDP’s Lok Sabha seat count dropped from 15 to three. The BJP saw its vote share drop from 4% in 2014 to less than 1% in 2019.
A decade after its success in 2014, the TDP-JSP-BJP combination is back together again, but the question of whether it can recreate its old magic looms large over the 2024 poll campaign.
Congress seeks revival
Another question is whether the Congress, which had pretty much lost its relevance in the State post-bifurcation, can make a mark, given the recent appointment of Y.S. Sharmila, the CM’s sister, as the State party chief. Ms. Sharmila’s entry into the Congress has brought the first family’s feud into the open, and she is leaving no stone unturned to point an accusing finger at her brother for the brutal murder of their uncle and former MP Y.S. Vivekananda Reddy in Kadapa in 2019.
She is contesting the Kadapa Lok Sabha constituency, taking on Y.S. Avinash, one of her cousins who is also one of the accused in the murder of her uncle. The Sharmila-led Congress is expected to split the YSR Congress vote, as a number of the ruling party’s leaders have their roots in the Congress.
Poll issues
The NDA is also taking full advantage of the family drama, and the murder case has become one of the key poll issues. Other issues grabbing the poll spotlight include the State’s demand for Special Category Status, cases booked against Mr. Naidu in relation to various alleged scams, the recent stone pelting and attack against the CM and his controversial decision to have three capitals.
At a broader level, the ruling YSR Congress is banking on its welfare schemes, while the NDA is highlighting the State government’s failure to usher in overall development, and the rise in both essential prices and unemployment.
Caste calculus
As always, caste equations play a role in the poll calculus. The Reddys and Kammas are the two dominant castes that have held sway over the political narrative in the State, accounting for 15 of the 19 Chief Ministers.
When it comes to actual votes, however, the deciding factor has always been the Kapu community that constitute about 20% to 22% of the electorate, and the other backward classes who make up half of all voters. All political parties are busy wooing the voters from these two segments, and the JSP’s Pawan Kalyan considers himself to be the champion of the Kapus as he hails from the community.
Big fights
The Assembly seat of Kuppam in Chittoor district, where the TDP chief and former CM is seeking re-election, is one of the constituencies to watch. Mr. Naidu, who has not lost since 1989, will take on K.S. Bharath of the YSR Congress.
The current CM, Mr. Jagan Reddy of the YSR Congress is pitched against the TDP’s M. Ravindranath Reddy, known as B.Tech Ravi, in the Pulivendula seat in Kadapa. In Pithapuram in East Godavari, JSP chief Mr. Kalyan will contest against Vanga Geetha of the YSR Congress.
Among the Lok Sabha constituencies, apart from Visakhapatnam and Kadapa, Vijayawada is said to be a seat to watch. Two brothers — Kesineni Srinivas of the YSR Congress and Kesineni Sivanath of the TDP — are pitched against each other. Mr. Srinivas had resigned from the TDP to join the YSR Congress.
