As I normally do on Tuesday of Open Championship week, I spent some time this morning looking at the odds for the showdown at Royal Troon. Naturally, Scottie Scheffler – a six-time 2024 PGA Tour winner and The Masters and Players Champion – leads the way, but there in second place sits Rory McIlroy.
Despite his ongoing Major drought, this is, of course, nothing new. But I’m becoming increasingly bemused by bookmakers’ modelling and the fact so many people still choose to back him – the two things that determine pricing.
Admittedly, he’s a very difficult person to set odds for because he’s a top-five machine in Majors. This means the lower his outright odds, the lower the payout for a top-five, top-eight or top-ten finish (depending on the bookmaker). There’s no doubt his placing prowess influences his price, but head to any ‘win only’ market and he’s somewhere between 7-8/1. The only other player in single digits is the aforementioned Scheffler.
This blows my mind. I don’t understand how he can possibly be second favourite ahead of the likes of Bryson DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele.
With fans, there’s obviously an emotional element to betting, but bookmakers’ have strict data-driver algorithms. The data from the last ten years in the all-important category shows no Major wins for McIlroy. I don’t know the percentage weighting between fan betting and modelling in terms of how a price is calculated and adapted, but I do know that Rory shouldn’t be the second favourite for The Open.
I know what you’re thinking – he’s finished inside the top six in six of his last nine Opens and has six Major top-fives since 2020. He was also inches away from claiming the last Major he took part in and he’s a generationally great player, a prolific winner and a mainstay in the world’s top three.
But ten years is a long time without a Major in the peak years of a career. With Rory, it seems we often overlook the evidence and the red flags because we’re so desperate for him to get over the line again. The pundits are the same – go to any list of Open pics and he’ll likely appear multiple times. Is that thinking with the heart or with the head?
This isn’t an attack on Rory – he’s a fantastic golfer and someone I have a lot of respect for. I just think his long wait for another Major will extend into another season.
Close but no cigar
In my mind, there are clear psychological issues he needs to overcome before I back him in a Major again. His performances in the big four over the last few years have tended to fall into one of three categories: agonising-near misses (see the 2024 US Open), finishing strong after a bad first round (see the 2022 Masters) or starting strong, falling away and salvaging a more than respectable finish (see the 2024 PGA Championship).
There are multiple painful near-misses that come to mind when considering McIlroy’s recent Major performances. Clearly, the US Open is front and centre – and we don't know how that will affect him going forward – but others stung nearly as much.
In 2018, he shot a 74 from the final group at The Masters to finish six behind Patrick Reed. At the 2022 Open, he couldn’t find any birdies coming down the stretch at St Andrews on a day of very low scoring, ultimately finishing two shots behind Cameron Smith, who recorded a final-round 64. And at last year’s US Open, he couldn’t muster a birdie over the final 17 holes, coming in one shot behind Wyndham Clark.
Clearly, putting yourself repeatedly in contention means something. But you’d have expected a player of Rory’s calibre – and Major pedigree – to have reigned supreme in at least one of the four tournaments above.
Since his last triumph at the 2014 PGA Championship, the following players have won MULTIPLE Majors: Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson. That doesn’t make for great reading as far as McIlroy is concerned.
I’d love nothing more than to see him land a fifth Major title at Troon and be ridiculed for this piece of work, but McIlroy needs to step up and seize the moment. Chances to win golf’s biggest events won’t continue to come around forever.
