Israel has announced plans to launch a full-scale offensive on the town of Rafah in the southern Gaza strip, claiming it is the only way to "completely destroy" Hamas. But according to former French military officer and author Guillaume Ancel, a large-scale military operation in the city that is now host to half of Gaza’s population is of no strategic interest. In his analysis, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s only goal is to make the Palestinian enclave "uninhabitable".
The countdown has begun for Rafah. Israel repeated on Sunday its threats of carrying out a major ground attack against the southern Gaza city before the start of Ramadan: the holy month in Islam, during which Muslims fast, is expected to begin around March 10. The perspective of a ground operation in the city, which was once considered "safe" for civilians, is fuelling international concern about the fate of the 1.5 million Palestinians trapped in the city.
"The world must know, and Hamas leaders must know – if by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue everywhere, including the Rafah area," Benny Gantz, a former Israeli defence minister currently serving on Netanyahu's war cabinet, told a conference of American Jewish leaders in Jerusalem on Sunday. "Hamas has a choice. They can surrender, release the hostages and the civilians of Gaza can celebrate the feast of Ramadan," he added.
Having so far ignored the warnings of his Western allies, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu seems more determined than ever to continue the war against Hamas, reaffirming on February 9 that he was aiming for "total victory". On February 17 he said that foreign countries calling on Israel to spare the city were effectively telling the country to "lose the war" against Hamas.
"Benny Gantz's statements reflect a rift within the war cabinet," French military expert Guillaume Ancel said in an interview with FRANCE 24. "While the extremists led by Netanyahu want to go all the way, those who are more moderate, like Benny Gantz, want to leave the door open for negotiations, which are currently going very badly."
Pressure 'on partners involved in negotiations'
According to a Hamas official quoted by Israeli daily Haaretz, the arrival of the movement's political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Cairo on Tuesday did not mean there had been any breakthrough in the negotiations.
Organised by Egypt and Qatar, several rounds of talks were held in Cairo earlier this month but failed to reach an agreement on a truce and the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. According to Israel, 130 hostages are still being held in Gaza, at least 30 of whom have reportedly died, out of the 257 kidnapped on October 7.
Read moreWho are the remaining Gaza hostages?
Talks have stalled over Hamas's demands, described as "delusional" by Binyamin Netanyahu. These include a ceasefire, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, an end to the Israeli blockade of the Palestinian territory and safe shelter for the hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinian civilians.
"More than on Hamas, this is about putting pressure on the partners involved in the negotiations, especially Egypt, Qatar and the US", says Tewfik Hamel, a researcher in military history at Université Paul Valéry in Montpellier, who sees Israel's ultimatum as a call for the Islamist movement to capitulate.
Fears of 'carnage'
Should new negotiations fail, the prospect of a military ground offensive in overcrowded Rafah raises the worst fears for the trapped Palestinian refugees. Nearly 30,000 people have so far been killed in the conflict, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.
"In an area of 10 square kilometres, there are almost 1.5 million Palestinians, so this will necessarily lead to a massacre of the civilian population," says Hamel. "Attacking the town of Rafah, where two-thirds of Gaza's population is now squeezed, would mean committing carnage," agrees Ancel.
The former soldier points out that the town has already been subjected to daily bombardment designed "to prepare the territory" for a ground attack. On Thursday, fresh Israeli bombardment of the city flattened a mosque and destroyed homes in what residents called one of their worst nights yet, killing at least 97 people and wounding 130 others in the last 24 hours, according to Gaza's health authorities. Most victims were still under rubble or in areas rescuers could not reach.
"We can't even begin to imagine what this would mean for all these displaced people. A military offensive is going to create even more chaos," Jamie MacGoldrick, the UN's Middle East coordinator, told FRANCE 24.
Reports from humanitarian organisations have been increasingly alarming on the situation in the Gaza Strip, where 2.2 million people could face starvation. According to UN agencies, food and drinking water have become "extremely scarce", and 90 percent of the enclave’s young children now suffer from infectious diseases.
Watch moreThe desperate search for food and water in Gaza
Netanyahu has said Israel would provide "safe passage" to civilians trying to leave Rafah before the assault, but never mentioned to which destination. In the event of an offensive, Palestinian civilians would have to try to force their way across the closed border with Egypt.
"Egypt doesn't want refugees in Sinai because the authorities don't know whether Israel would later accept their return to the Gaza Strip, and Egypt doesn't want to host the refugees out of fears some might end up being Hamas fighters, even if authorities don’t explicitly state it," explains Bruno Daroux, FRANCE 24’s international affairs editor.
But recently Cairo seemed to be preparing for this scenario. According to reports by the Wall Street Journal and an Egyptian NGO, Cairo is constructing a walled camp in the Sinai Peninsula to receive displaced Palestinian civilians from the Gaza Strip. After satellite images appeared to show extensive construction work along the border, the reports claim the compound could accommodate more than 100,000 people on the Egyptian side, parallel to the border with Gaza.
Ancel sees this flight from Rafah as the real objective of Binyamin Netanyahu's government. "Rafah is the only urban centre that has not been destroyed by the Israeli army. The government therefore wants to complete the destruction of the Gaza Strip's infrastructure to make it uninhabitable. Netanyahu's aim is to empty the Gaza Strip of Palestinians under the guise of fighting Hamas," says the former officer, who believes that "a terrorist organisation cannot be destroyed by a military offensive".
Destruction rendering 'return of civilians impossible'
"The current Israeli government rejects the creation of a Palestinian state. From that point of view, the most reasonable option is to drive the Palestinians out of the territory," says Hamel. "However, the attachment of the Gazans to the territory remains strong, because they know that as soon as there is a displacement of the population, the possibility of a return completely ceases to exist."
As well as farmlands, almost 40 percent of the buildings in the Gaza Strip had been destroyed by January 17, an Israeli study revealed. According to satellite data analysis obtained by the BBC, the actual figure is higher. That analysis suggests between 144,000 and 175,000 buildings across the whole Gaza Strip have been damaged or destroyed – meaning between 50 and 61 percent of Gaza's buildings.
UN human rights chief Volker Turk on February 8 accused the Israeli army of committing a "war crime" in its reported destruction of buildings within one kilometre of the barrier between the enclave and Israel in order to create a "buffer zone" along the border inside Gaza itself.
Read moreGaza: More than 40% of buildings destroyed in the 'buffer zone' Israel plans to create
Turk said the destruction “appears to be aimed at, or has the effect of, rendering the return of civilians to these areas impossible,” adding Israel's "extensive destruction of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly, amounts to a grave breach of the Fourth Geneva Convention, and a war crime", he said in a statement.
This story has been adapted from the original in French.
