After months of deadlock, Israel and Hamas are showing signs of progress towards a ceasefire to end their 14-month war. Mediation efforts by top officials from the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt have been renewed, with both sides displaying a greater willingness to reach a deal. Hamas has indicated readiness to be more flexible on the timing of an Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel's defense minister has expressed optimism about the proximity of a deal.
While key details still need to be ironed out, there is a newfound sense of optimism attributed to various factors. Israel's significant damage to Hamas, the group's increased isolation following Hezbollah's ceasefire with Israel, and setbacks faced by Iran, a key supporter of both groups, have all contributed to the shifting dynamics.
The U.S., under both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration, has signaled a desire for a deal before the January 20 inauguration. The proposed agreement, as outlined by Egyptian and Hamas officials, would involve phases including a ceasefire, a hostage/prisoner exchange, and increased aid to Gaza.
In the preliminary ceasefire phase lasting six to eight weeks, Hamas would release hostages, and Israel would release Palestinian prisoners. The deal also includes a substantial increase in aid to Gaza, aiming to address the humanitarian crisis in the region. This aid package may involve reopening the Rafah crossing with Egypt, a critical exit point for Palestinians in Gaza.
Israeli troop withdrawals would occur from some Palestinian population centers during the initial phase, with troops remaining along the Philadelphi corridor. Negotiations for a permanent agreement would continue during the ceasefire, focusing on a full Israeli troop withdrawal, release of remaining hostages, and plans for Gaza's governance and reconstruction.
