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Kritika Sarmah

Is Walmart Stock Outperforming the S&P 500?

Commanding a market cap of $772.8 billion, Walmart Inc. (WMT) is a global retail giant headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas. Founded in 1962 by Sam Walton, the company operates a vast network of hypermarkets, discount stores, and grocery stores across the U.S. and internationally. 

Companies worth $200 billion or more are generally described as “mega-cap stocks,” and WMT definitely fits that description, with its market cap exceeding this threshold, reflecting its substantial size, influence, and dominance in the discount stores industry. 

 

Walmart is the world's largest retailer by revenue, driven by its extensive supply chain, everyday low-pricing strategy, and growing e-commerce presence. The company serves millions of customers through its brick-and-mortar locations, online platforms, and membership-based warehouse chain, Sam’s Club. With a focus on digital transformation, Walmart continues to expand its omnichannel capabilities, leveraging innovations in logistics, AI, and automation to stay competitive.

Walmart shares touched their 52-week high of $105.30 on Feb. 14 and are currently trading 8.1% below the peak. Over the past three months, WMT stock has gained 5.3%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX2.3% drop during the same time frame.

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In the longer term, Walmart's shares have surged 27.2% over the past six months and climbed 62.4% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming SPX’s six-month gains of 4.2% and 15.4% returns over the last year.

While the stock had been trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for most of the past year, it recently saw a sharp pullback before rebounding and reclaiming its 50-day moving average, signaling resilience and potential for continued upside.

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Walmart continues to demonstrate robust market momentum, driven by its expanding market share, strong e-commerce growth, and rising profitability. The retail giant’s online sales now account for 18% of total revenue, with global e-commerce sales surging 16% in Q4. Meanwhile, its high-margin segments, including digital advertising, memberships, and third-party marketplace sales, are growing rapidly, boosting operating income faster than revenue. Additionally, Walmart’s commitment to shareholder returns remains strong, as evidenced by its recent 13% dividend hike, the largest in over a decade. 

On Feb. 25, Walmart surged over 4% after DZ Bank analyst Mike Pohn upgraded the stock to “Buy” from “Hold.” His new price target of $110 implies a nearly 13% upside. The strong rally outpaced the S&P 500, which closed 0.5% lower that day.

In a thriving retail industry where major players are vying for market share, Walmart’s competitor, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), has struggled to keep pace, posting 12.4% returns over the past six months and 37.2% gains over the past 52 weeks. 

Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Walmart, with a consensus “Strong Buy” rating from the 36 analysts covering it, and the mean price target of $109.43 suggests a potential upside of 13.1% from current price levels.

On the date of publication, Kritika Sarmah did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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