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MGM Resorts International (MGM), headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada, owns and manages casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts worldwide. Valued at $10.2 billion by market cap, the company provides diverse amenities such as accommodation, convention, gaming, dining, entertainment, and retail, and its casino operations include slots, table games, and online gaming through BetMGM.
Shares of this global hospitality and entertainment giant have considerably underperformed the broader market over the past year. MGM has declined 23.1% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 22.6%. In 2025, MGM stock is down 1.2%, compared to the SPX’s 3.1% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, MGM’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 31.1% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 2.2% gains on a YTD basis outshines the stock’s losses over the same time frame.
MGM's struggles are driven by the underwhelming casino performance in Las Vegas, heavy losses in its BetMGM joint venture, and squeezed profits in Macau.
On Oct. 30, MGM reported its Q3 results, and its shares closed down more than 10% in the following trading session. Its adjusted EPS of $0.54 missed Wall Street expectations of $0.58. The company’s revenue was $4.18 billion, falling short of Wall Street forecasts of $4.22 billion.
For the current fiscal year, ended in December 2024, analysts expected MGM’s EPS to decline 11.2% to $2.37 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.
Among the 18 analysts covering MGM stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 14 “Strong Buy” ratings, and four “Holds.”
This configuration is less bullish than a month ago, with 15 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Feb. 4, JMP Securities analyst Jordan Bender reiterated a “Buy” rating on MGM with a price target of $50, implying a potential upside of 46% from current levels.
The mean price target of $48.08 represents a 40.4% premium to MGM’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $56 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 63.6%.
