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Valued at a market cap of $10.5 billion, Dayforce Inc. (DAY) is a leading global provider of human capital management (HCM) software, offering innovative and data-driven solutions for workforce management, payroll, talent, and benefits administration. Headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Dayforce leverages advanced cloud-based technology and artificial intelligence to help organizations optimize workforce efficiency, enhance employee experiences, and drive business performance across various industries.
Shares of Dayforce have significantly underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. DAY has declined 8.1% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 22.3%. In 2025, the stock is down 8.6%, compared to SPX’s 4% gain on a YTD basis.
Zooming in further, DAY has also trailed behind the SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW), which has gained about 26.3% over the past year.
Dayforce’s shares fell 8% on Feb. 5 despite strong Q4 earnings results. Revenue grew 16.4% year over year to $465.2 million, beating analyst estimates. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.60, exceeding expectations by 34.8%. Adjusted EBITDA was $129.2 million, with a 27.8% margin, in line with projections.
However, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $424 million missed expectations. The fiscal 2025 revenue forecast of $1.75 billion also disappointed, indicating a slight decline from 16.3% growth in 2024.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect DAY’s EPS to grow 49.5% year-over-year to $1.48. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing on two other occasions.
Among the 19 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and nine Holds.”
This configuration is less bullish than three months ago, with 10 “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.
On Feb. 6, Stifel analyst Brad Reback lowered DAY’s price target to $85 from $90 but maintained a “Buy” rating, citing a mixed quarter despite management's upbeat tone.
The mean price target of $80.94 implies an upside potential of about 21.9%. The Street-high target price of $96 suggests the stock could rally as much as 44.5%.
