Ukraine’s military headway in the Dnieper River region has raised hopes it is gaining a significant upper hand in the war. Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson is especially significant as it is just weeks since Vladimir Putin declared Kherson as one of four new Russian regions.
Everyday Russian citizens who watched coverage of the declaration and six weeks later witnessed the announcement of the withdrawal on Russian state TV would have seen the chinks in Putin’s rusting political armour, with the perception of his invincibility in tatters.
There’s the prospect of a reinvigorated Ukraine beyond the war, should it win. A week ago Andrew Forrest pledged $744 million to kickstart investment for rebuilding Ukraine’s communications and energy infrastructure. A rosier future of billions of dollars of private funds flowing in from across the world seems possible.
But could the US be throwing Putin a lifeline at this critical juncture, just as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy smells a whiff of eventual victory?
The issue of how much aid Ukraine should be given has been simmering away in the US for months, however the Republicans’ new majority in the House of Representatives will bring things to a head. Will carte blanche funding remain, or will the Republicans scale down support and give Putin some hope that the West is tiring of this conflict?
Frontrunner for new house majority leader Kevin McCarthy could be key in what happens next. In late October, before the midterms, McCarthy said the Republicans might pull back funding for Ukraine in 2023 if they took the majority, according to CNN. The days of a blank cheque were over.
Those remarks were later qualified by other Republicans to suggest the focus would be accountability rather than limitless funds.
Whether McCarthy is elected speaker or not, a body of Republicans and even some liberal Democrats are vying for a negotiated settlement for the war which, if conducted now, would see disputed territories such as Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea remain in Russian hands. Zelenskyy is only prepared to negotiate a full Russian troop exit with all Ukraine regions coming back under Kyiv’s control.
Exacerbating this further is the Trump factor. Trump’s position on funding the war and forcing a negotiated settlement hasn’t festered into a major issue yet, but he has spoken against current funding levels. His position is clear.
“The Democrats are sending another $40 billion to Ukraine, yet America’s parents are struggling to even feed their children,” he said in May.
Meanwhile, his eldest child Donald Trump Jr has been arguing against any funding of Ukraine for months, with guns blazing.
“Since it was Ukraine’s missile that hit our NATO ally Poland, can we at least stop spending billions to arm them now?” Trump Jr said in a recent Tweet.
When Hurricane Ian recently hit Florida killing 100 people, Trump Jr’s response was: “How about we get every single Floridian back into their homes and back to normal before we send one more cent to the Ukraine.”
In March he described Ukraine aid as “one giant kickback to their friends and big war”.
It goes without saying that the Trumps and Ukraine is a huge political rabbit hole, with the former president having faced impeachment accused of making military aid contingent on Ukraine investigating Joe and Hunter Biden.
Despite his distaste for Ukraine, Donald Trump Jr and Ivanka Trump previously lobbied the Ukrainian government of Viktor Yushchenko to build a hotel, golf course and yacht club there, with Trump Jr visiting Ukraine in 2006 and 2008, according to Politico.
Then there’s Trump senior’s past praise for Putin. OK, Putin may be the sort of political strongman that Trump looks up to, but Putin’s actions have led to 200,000 military casualties so far, along with thousands of civilians. Does Trump condemn Putin in strong language now?
Diverting Ukrainian aid back to the US domestic economy plays into Trump’s “America first” narrative and would resonate with US voters fed up with inflation, high interest rates, escalating energy prices, and the cost of living generally. But it avoids the immense consequences of the West acquiescing to Putin and the flow-on effects of that to China.
Just how much power and political sway Trump’s view has among Republicans will be tested not only when the speaker is chosen but when more military aid is considered by Congress.
In this environment, the fallout over the origin of missiles that killed two people in Poland could play out more dangerously for Zelenskyy than it otherwise would; politicians and commentators from Trump Jr onwards could use it to argue for less military aid to Ukraine.
The world will be watching closely over the coming months.
