Tesla stock gained around 63% in 2024, virtually all of that in the fourth quarter, especially after President Donald Trump's election win. Now, Chief Executive Elon Musk appears to be signaling 2025 could be a middling year for the EV giant, with only slight vehicle sales growth, even as he continues to sound bullish on the possibility for incredible things to come in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
TSLA advanced 3.6% to 268.46, hitting 277.45 intraday, during Tuesday's stock market action. TSLA dropped 1.7% to 259.16 on Monday amid broader weakness and as Q1 delivery expectations came down.
On Friday, TSLA fell 3.5%. Shares did jump 6% for the week, snapping a nine-week losing streak, but hit resistance at the 200-day moving average. The stock is recovering after its March 11 low of 217.02. Entering Tuesday's stock market, TSLA was up around 19% since hitting its March low.
Separately, Musk posted to X on Friday evening that his AI firm xAI has bought his social site X in a stock deal valuing the latter at $33 billion. Musk purchased Twitter, now X, for $44 billion in October 2022, selling a hefty portion of his Tesla stock to finance the deal.
TSLA in late February and early March broke below potential floors at the 325-360 price range, and then the 300 level. Investors have worried that Musk's political work with Trump and comments are causing Tesla brand "destruction," hitting vehicle sales significantly.
Late on Mar. 20, Tesla held a surprise all hands company meeting and Musk took the stage to once more tout the company's long-term strategy around robotaxis, artificial intelligence and robotics, including the expected demand around Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot.
Musk's message was clear during the all-hands meeting: "What I'm saying is, hang onto your stock."
"Overall things are good. If you read the news it feels like Armageddon. I can't walk past the TV without seeing a Tesla on fire," Musk said. "I understand if you don't want to buy our product but you don't have to burn it down."
After the meeting, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote that "leaders lead in times of trouble and crisis" and "Elon Musk took a major and much needed step forward by hosting a rare all-hands meeting for employees."
"This was a key moment for Musk and Tesla to show leadership and he did. We applaud Musk for 'reading the room' and showing important hand-holding at this key time for employees and investors," Ives wrote.
With Tesla stock appearing to have bottomed on Mar. 11 and Q1 earnings coming on April 2, the top question for investors is: when is it a good time to buy or sell Tesla stock.
Tesla And The 25% Tariffs
The EV giant is widely considered by analysts to be the least affected by Trump's auto tariffs, due to its existing U.S. manufacturing and supply chains.
"It could be a net neutral or they may be good. He has a big plant in Texas, he has a big plant in California and anybody who has plants in the United States, it's going to be good for, in my opinion," Trump said Wednesday.
However, Musk posted to X on Wednesday that Tesla would be significantly impacted by Trump's 25% tariffs on all foreign-made autos.
"Important to note that Tesla is not unscathed here. The tariff impact on Tesla is still significant," Musk wrote on X.
The Tesla brand is also becoming increasingly political as countries look to retaliate against the U.S. and Trump.
Canada late last Tuesday froze $43 million in what it termed "suspicious" EV rebates for Tesla. It also excluded the U.S. EV giant from the country's future EV rebates, explicitly as retaliation for Trump tariffs.
The United Kingdom appears to be considering something similar. U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves talking to British broadcasters on Thursday said "we are looking at the zero emission vehicle mandate which is why some of ... that money goes to Tesla, and looking at how we can better support the car manufacturing industry in the U.K."
Tesla recently warned that it could be singled out by other countries in a Trump trade war.
"Past U.S. special tariff actions have thus increased costs to Tesla for vehicles manufactured in the United States, and increased costs for those same vehicles when exported from the United States, resulting in less competitive international marketplace for U.S. manufacturers," the company wrote.
Musk, DOGE and Trump
Ives on Mar. 19 wrote that Musk's work in Trump's White House, heading up the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, has turned the EV giant into a "political symbol" resulting in "brand damage" for the company.
"As someone who is a core bull and believer in the Tesla long-term growth story," Ives wrote. "I loudly urge Musk and the Board to step up, stop being silent, and help resolve this crisis forming at Tesla."
"If you agree or disagree with DOGE it misses the point," Ives wrote. The point, he said, is that "by Musk spending 110% of his time with DOGE (and not as Tesla CEO) since President Trump got back into the White House this has essentially turned Tesla into a political symbol."
The analyst added that to curb the negativity around Tesla and DOGE, Musk must formally announce in the coming months how he is going to balance DOGE with his duties as Tesla CEO. Ives also believes Musk must also give clear timing for Tesla' new lower cost vehicles and the unsupervised FSD roll-out in Austin scheduled for June.
"With a Model Y refresh, inventory issues, and a host of demand issues with Musk brand damage a worry ... there is one person Tesla investors need to hear from ... Musk," Ives wrote.
Earnings Consensus Falling
The company is expected to see Q1 vehicle deliveries increase 5.4% to 407,900 as of FactSet estimates, which have declined 10% since Jan. 31. However, Tesla investor relations' compiled delivery consensus number is 377,592, based on several analyst estimates. That would be the lowest since Q3 2022.
The most timely delivery estimates are between 315,000-369,000, which would be well below Q1 2024's 386,810. Tesla demand in China appears to be on pace with a year ago, according to Tesla insurance registration data. However, Tesla vehicle sales in the U.S. and Europe seem to have dropped dramatically, according to independent trackers of vehicle sales.
Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro early on March 31 lowered his price target on Tesla stock to 455 from 474, keeping a buy rating on the shares. The firm expects Q1 deliveries around 353,000 based on the rollout of the new Model Y as well as headwinds from "the anti-Elon Musk crowd."
Gengaro added that as Musk has become closely aligned with President Donald Trump, Democrats' favorability rating on Tesla has plunged, which creates near-term sales headwinds.
Last week, a YouGov and Yahoo News survey of 1,677 U.S. adults between March 20-24 showed that 67% of respondents would not consider buying or leasing a Tesla vehicle. Thirty-seven percent of those polled Elon Musk was the "whole/part of the reason why."
Tesla faces similar brand destruction in Europe, where Musk has weighed in on the Ukraine war, German elections and much more.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, a Tesla bull, on March 20 cut his Tesla stock price target to 410 from 430, but maintained an overweight rating. Most of Jonas' commentary was on falling vehicle deliveries. However, Jonas believes Tesla's "softer auto deliveries are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive 'pure play' to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics."
The bulk of Jonas' Tesla price target, along with many other bullish analysts, is outside the EV giant's EV business.
Tesla Deliveries And The Aftermath
While analysts already expect an underwhelming first quarter, the key to Wednesday's expected release could be full-year delivery revisions along with earnings expectations.
Analysts have already been revising Q1 and full-year earnings estimates, according to FactSet. FactSet's current consensus pegs first-quarter earnings rising 7% to 48 cents. That's down from 57 cents at the end of January and 74 cents at the end of last year. For the full year, FactSet pegs Tesla EPS increasing 13% to $2.74, down from $3.31 just before the Q4 earnings report in late January.
For 2025, analysts predict Tesla vehicle deliveries to increase 7% to 1.92 million units, but with more recent forecasts targeting flat to lower sales for the year.
Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors, on March 23 posted to X he believes Tesla will deliver less than 1.68 million vehicles in 2025.
That represents a 6% drop compared to the 1.79 million vehicles delivered in 2024, which was a slight decline vs. 2023.
"The company is now struggling to regain its momentum due to shifting brand perception in Western markets and increasing competition in China," Teslike wrote.
Tesla: Fourth-Quarter Earnings
Tesla announced late on Jan. 29 worse-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, with Q4 EPS of 73 cents, growing 3% compared to Q4 2023, and revenue increasing 2% to $25.71 billion. After a surprise gain in Q3, Tesla's total gross margins fell 138 basis points to 16.3%. Auto gross margins excluding regulatory tax credits tumbled to 13.6% vs. 15.7% expected, per FactSet.
Electrek reported on Jan. 30 that around a quarter of Tesla's Q4 earnings were due to a $600 billion gain on Bitcoin, meaning Tesla made more profit last quarter from regulatory credits and Bitcoin than from its business operations.
Musk claimed on the Q4 call that battery packs are a "constraint" this year but that Tesla is working to address that issue.
"I think we will make progress on addressing that constraint and then things are really going to go ballistic next year and then really ballistic in 2027 and 2028," Musk said.
"The reality of autonomy is upon us," Musk added, touting the outlook for the value add of FSD.
Arguably the biggest announcement the earnings call was that unsupervised full self-driving will come as a paid service to Austin, Texas, in June. Musk added there will be robotaxi tests in many U.S. cities by year end.
The Tesla head was also bullish on Optimus, projecting the company could be selling units sometime in the first half of 2026.
"Long term, Optimus will be overwhelmingly the value of the company," Musk said.
Musk on Mar. 2o claimed the company will produce around 5,000 Optimus robots in 2025 and 50,000 in 2026. Optimus sales will roll out in the second half of 2026, according to Musk.
Musk has conceded that Tesla EVs with Hardware 3.0 might not be able to achieve true self-driving.
Tesla Rises On Robotaxi Hopes Despite Earnings Miss. Elon Musk Sees 'Epic' 2026.
Read more on Tesla's third-quarter results, second-quarter earnings or on the company's first-quarter report.
IRA Tax Credit
TSLA shares about 5.8% on Nov. 14 amid reports the president-elect's transition team plans to discontinue the Inflation Reduction Act, IRA, $7,500 EV consumer tax credit. The move was not a surprise to analysts and Musk has appeared to already endorse the idea of cutting the tax credit, echoing the belief that Tesla can thrive without it.
However, if the IRA tax credits are stripped away, it could hit Tesla's auto business. The EV giant has already slashed prices repeatedly over the past year to drum up consumer interest amid waning demand.
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Meanwhile, the Tesla Cybertruck is now eligible for the $7,500 IRA tax credit, which could boost demand, at least to start 2025.
Tesla Stock: The Robotaxi Event
Musk set sky-high expectations for the "We Robot" event. But after showing off a Cybercab and Robovan late on Oct. 10 2024, the market seemed unimpressed with Musk as he once more claimed full autonomous driving will come "next year" but did not offer any details or updates of an "affordable" EV.
The event was high on theatrics with Musk riding the two-seat Cybercab, with butterfly doors and no steering wheel, briefly to the stage to give his remarks. Dancing Optimus robots were paraded out with the Tesla humanoids serving attendees drinks. However, the consensus among analysts was that while the event was high on pomp and circumstance, it underdelivered on details.
Musk did say he expects the Cybercab price tag will be below $30,000, with production starting "before 2027." The Tesla chief also showed off the latest Optimus robot. He expects that the cost could be $25,000-$30,000 when produced at scale.
"That's it? Disappointing lack of detail," Morgan Stanley's Jonas proclaimed in his investor note following the event. Wells Fargo analysts echoed that sentiment, writing that Tesla's robotaxi event was mostly "razzle-dazzle" with "little substance."
"We were overall disappointed with the substance and detail of the presentation. As such, we anticipated TSLA to be under pressure following the event," Jonas added.
Tesla Robotaxi Event: Cybercab, Robovan Unveiled; Musk Sees Self-Driving 'Next Year'
Cathie Wood On The Robotaxi
Tesla stock sold off hard the day following the robotaxi event, sending a sell signal to investors. However, Cathie Wood and her Ark Invest ignored that and purchased nearly $3 million in TSLA shares.
Wood, who has long been super-bullish on Tesla's autonomy push and robotaxi aims, attended Tesla's robotaxi event on Thursday. On June 12, Ark Invest updated its Tesla stock price target to 2,600 by 2029, estimating that around 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029.
Wood's Ark Invest tends to purchase Tesla stock and other positions amid sell-offs or when they break below key moving averages. Without a robotaxi network and business, Ark Invest says its TSLA price target would be around $350 per share, according to the report.
"We remain confident that the service will launch within the next five years," Ark Invest said.
Tesla EVs In Regulators' Sights
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced in January it opened an investigation into Tesla, citing "Actually Smart Summon sessions resulting in crashes during the session, including where the operator does not have enough time to react due to vehicle proximity or line of sight."
Federal regulators wrote they have received one complaint alleging that an Actually Smart Summon session resulted in a crash and has reviewed at least three media reports of apparently similar crashes. All four incidents involve Tesla vehicles operating in Actually Smart Summon failing to detect posts or parked vehicles, resulting in a crash, according to NHTSA.
The company announced on Mar. 20 the recall of 46,096 Cybertruck vehicles to fix an exterior panel that could detach while driving, according to U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Tesla sold 38,965 Cybertrucks in 2024, according to Cox Automotive estimates.
Is Tesla Stock A Buy?
Almost single-handedly, Elon Musk has turned the auto industry on its head. He has essentially forced it to get aboard the electric-vehicle train. Tesla has been a monster stock over much of its history, especially during its stratospheric run from mid-2019 to late 2021.
Tesla stock is still well below its 50-day line. Investors should generally avoid stocks below the 200-day or even their 50-day lines.
The EV giant entered Tuesday's stock market down 35.8% so far in 2025, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 this year.
Tesla stock has a 21-day average true range of 7.44%. The ATR metric is available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool. It gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.
In the current market, IBD suggests stocks with ATRs of 3% or below.
Tesla stock ranks fourth in the 35-stock IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 63 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 54 Relative Strength Rating and an 84 EPS Rating.
See More Tesla Stock News And Analysis
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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