With a market cap of around $62 billion, Minneapolis, Minnesota-based Target Corporation (TGT) is a leading general merchandise retailer. In addition to its retail offerings, Target enhances the customer experience with in-store amenities such as Starbucks, Target Optical, and various food services.
Companies valued at $10 billion or more are generally labeled as “large-cap” stocks, and Target fits this criterion perfectly. With its evolution into an omni-channel entity, Target has modernized its supply chain and expanded services like same-day delivery through its acquisition of Shipt.
However, despite its strong market position, the retailer is down 25.3% from its 52-week high of $181.86. Over the past three months, the stock has declined 8.2%, underperforming the broader Nasdaq Composite's ($NASX) 16.3% return in the same period.
Nevertheless, longer term, TGT has dipped 4.6% on a YTD basis, lagging behind NASX's 31.9% gain. Moreover, TGT’s shares have risen marginally over the past 52 weeks, compared to NASX's 37.5% return over the same time frame.
Target has experienced fluctuating stock performance but since mid-November, it has been trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Target's stock plummeted nearly 22% on Nov. 20 due to an earnings miss in Q3 FY2024, with adjusted EPS of $1.85 and revenue of $25.7 billion, both falling short of the consensus estimate. The company also reduced its full-year guidance from a prior $9.35 to a midpoint of $8.60 per share, citing weak performance in discretionary categories and increased costs from preemptive inventory purchases due to port strike concerns. These poor results led to Wall Street downgrades, including Citigroup's shift to a hold rating and a lowered price target of $130.
Nevertheless, rival Dollar General Corporation (DG) has significantly underperformed TGT, declining 35.2% over the past 52 weeks and 39.4% on a YTD basis.
Despite TGT’s underperformance relative to the Nasdaq over the past year, analysts are moderately optimistic, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" from 33 analysts. The mean price target of $145.50 suggests a 7.3% upside potential from current levels.
