Rivian reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue late Feb. 20 while also announcing it hit its target of positive gross profit per vehicle. However, since then, RIVN stock has dropped, falling below key levels of support.
Rivian declined nearly 6% in February's stock market action and appears on track to book another monthly loss in March.
As of the beginning of March, FactSet pegs the average analyst rating on RIVN at hold with an average price target of 14.92.
Fourth-Quarter Earnings
Rivian gave a mixed 2025 outlook after beating fourth quarter expectations in late February. The EV maker lost 48 cents per share vs. the loss of 66 cents that analysts were forecasting, according to FactSet. Revenue jumped 32% to $1.734 billion, well ahead of views for $1.493 billion, aided by sales of regulatory credits and software, the Rivian earnings release said.
The upstart Tesla rival also delivered its first gross quarterly profit. In 2024, Rivian electric vans delivered more than 1 billion packages for Amazon.com, the EV maker said.
The company reported gross profit of $170 million in Q4 and removed $31,000 in cost per vehicle.
"Our focus on cost efficiency across the business is critical for the launch of our mass-market product, R2," CEO RJ Scaringe said in a statement. That Rivian electric vehicle is due around 2026.
For 2025, Rivian guided 46,000-51,000 deliveries, which would be down from 51,579 in 2024. It also expects an adjusted loss of $1.7 billion-$1.9 billion, narrowing from a loss of $2.69 billion in 2024.
Six analysts hiked price targets on Rivian stock after the Q4 report. RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said Rivian is executing but policy challenges remain, tied to the fate of a Department of Energy loan and Inflation Reduction Act consumer credits under the new Donald Trump administration.
In early January, Rivian reported Q4 vehicle deliveries came in above forecasts, hitting its 2024 delivery target number. The EV startup delivered 14,183 vehicles in Q4 and produced 12,727 units at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois. A year ago, Rivian delivered 13,972 vehicles while producing 17,541 units.
For the full year, Rivian produced 49,476 vehicles and delivered 51,579, in line with its goal of 50,500 to 52,000 deliveries. Rivian previously forecast 2024 production of 47,000 to 49,000 units.
The 2024 deliveries represent low single-digit growth compared to 2023 when Rivian produced 57,232 vehicles and delivered 50,122 units.
Rivian also said in early January that a component shortage the company reported in October is "no longer a constraint" on production.
Rivian Stock: Volkswagen and U.S. Government
The U.S. Department of Energy on Nov. 25 announced the EV startup would receive a loan up to $6.6 billion.
Rivian said in the announcement that, if the loan is finalized, it plans to use the federal money for the development and construction of its EV plant in Georgia, which would have an annual production capacity of 400,000 vehicles. The company said the first phase of the Georgia project is expected to start production in 2028.
This comes after Rivian announced on Nov. 13 it finalized its $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen.
The deal gives Volkswagen access to Rivian's software technology, while the U.S. EV maker gets much-needed cash and better economies of scale. The joint venture will be headed by Wassym Bensan, Rivian's chief software officer, and Carsten Helbing, VW's chief technology officer. They'll oversee some 1,000 engineers from both companies.
VW aims to launch vehicles in 2027 with tech from the JV in the Volkswagen and Scout brands.
"After seeing lots of choppiness and pain points in the supply chain in the past year, we believe this is the right partner announcement coming in at the right time as RIVN looks to navigate the ship in stormy waters with sufficient capital to fund its EV roadmap over the coming years," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote on Nov. 13.
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Rivian's Volkswagen Deal
The EV startup in June announced a $5 billion joint venture with Volkswagen that involves the global auto giant investing in the EV startup in order to leverage some of its engineering and designs.
However on Nov. 12, Rivian and VW announced the joint venture will see the auto giant invest up $5.8 billion in Rivian by 2027, 16% more than the original announcement.
The initial $1 billion investment has been made. At the closing of the joint venture, VW will invest another $1.3 billion. The remaining $3.5 billion is expected to come in the form of equity, convertible notes and debt at "future dates."
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The partnership will focus on software and building electric vehicle platforms at scale along with electrical architecture design and development, according to Rivian executives.
The JV plans to use Rivian's existing electrical architecture and software which will enable the launch of the Rivian R2 in the first half of 2026 and "support the expected launch of the first models from the Volkswagen Group as early as 2027."
Through 2028, VW will fund 75% of shared platform costs in the JV with Rivian covering 25% of the costs. Each company will fund 100% of the development for each brand's respective vehicles.
Volkswagen recently relaunched the Scout Motors brand making all-electric SUVs and pickup trucks that bear a marked resemblance to Rivian's vehicles. Scout engineered and designed the vehicles in Michigan, and plans to build them at a new factory in South Carolina.
Rivian's Third-Quarter
Meanwhile on Nov. 7, Rivian reported another loss in its third-quarter, while also reaffirming its 2024 delivery outlook, as well as its goal for positive gross profit per vehicle delivered in Q4.
Rivian announced a net loss of $1.08 per share in Q3 — compared to a $1.44 per share loss a year ago — while revenue totaled $874 million, down 34% vs. Q3 2023. Total revenue from the sale of regulatory credits was $8 million for the quarter, according to the after-hours report.
Rivian ended the third quarter with $6.739 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. This includes $1 billion of an unsecured convertible note issued to Volkswagen, according to Rivian. At the end of Q2, Rivian had $7.867 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.
The EV startup also said that Q3 operating expenses decreased to $777 million, compared to $963 million in the same period last year.
Along with earnings, Rivian announced a strategic supply agreement with LG Energy Solution to power its next-generation midsize electric vehicle platform. LG Energy Solution will supply 4695 cylindrical battery cells to Rivian.
EV Startup Redesigns Lineup
In June 2024, Rivian announced it revamped its pickup truck and SUV models. Rivian said pricing for the second-generation R1S SUV will increase $1,000 from current models to start at $75,900, with the trimotor trim starting at around $106,000.
The starting pricing for the R1T pickup will remain at $69,900. However, the trimotor option will run around $100,000.
The company said it has changed more than half the hardware components for the updated products and reengineered its batteries.
"We continue to evolve our flagship R1 vehicles, offering quality and performance without compromise," Chief Executive RJ Scaringe said in a statement. "Our revamped R1S and R1T push the technical boundaries further, creating our most capable products to date."
The Rivian Reveal
The EV startup also unveiled the R2 — its smaller, cheaper, next-generation vehicle and platform — in March 2024. The vehicle has an estimated starting price of $45,000 with expectations it will also qualify for the $7,500 Inflation Reduction Act tax credit.
Rivian planned to produce the vehicle at its new factory in Georgia. However, the company halted construction of the $5 billion plant and is opening an R2 production line at its Illinois plant.
Production of the R2 platform is expected to begin in 2026 with deliveries set for the first half of 2026.
Rivian also announced the R3, a more compact crossover style vehicle that uses the R2 platform, and a high-performance R3X offering. The company has not mentioned pricing or delivery estimates for the R3 or R3X.
Rivian has said the R3 will be at a lower price point than the R2 and that deliveries for the R3X will begin after the R2.
The Rivian Van And Amazon
Rivian on Feb. 5 made its all-electric commercial van available for sale to the general public after years of it being only available to Amazon.com.
The EV startup officially made the Rivian commercial van available with a starting price of $79,900 with deliveries slated to begin in April 2025. There are two variants, a 500 series and a 700 series, with both getting around 160 miles of range.
Rivian signed an agreement with Amazon in 2019 to design and develop electric commercial delivery vans and has prioritized production for Amazon since then. The online marketplace ordered 100,000 of Rivian's electric vans and said in December 2024 it has 20,000 Rivian electric vans in its delivery fleet.
Amazon currently has a 15.6% stake in Rivian, according to FactSet. Amazon is also looking elsewhere to electrify its fleet.
However, Rivian in November 2023 amended its agreement with Amazon to allow the EV startup to sell commercial vans to any other commercial customers. At the end of the third-quarter, Rivian said it expected Amazon to increase its delivery order of vans in Q4 and announced it had launched the Rivian Commercial Van platform for the commercial market.
In December 2023, AT&T announced that starting in 2024 it will begin "piloting" Rivian vehicles in its fleet. AT&T expected to begin adding the Rivian Commercial Van and R1 vehicles to its fleet in early 2024. It is unclear how many Rivian vehicles AT&T will order. The company partnership also sees AT&T as the exclusive provider of connectivity to all Rivian vehicles, in the U.S. and Canada.
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Rivian Stock IPO
The EV startup currently produces an electric pickup-truck, SUV and commercial vans. Rivian makes its vehicles in Normal, Ill. The plant has a production capacity of 150,000 units annually. With the R2 production line, the capacity will total 215,000 units per year, according to Rivian,
Rivian rolled out the first all-electric pickup truck, the R1T, on Sept. 14, 2021, and its R1S SUV in the fall of 2022. The company launched with great fanfare on Wall Street.
On Nov. 9, 2021, the much-anticipated RIVN IPO priced strong, an upsized 153 million shares at $78 a share — above the expected range. Rivian stock has since fallen well below its IPO price.
Nevertheless, Rivian had a monster IPO, raising $11.9 billion and giving the company an initial valuation of roughly $77 billion. Rivian stock soared to 179.47 on Nov. 16, 2021, then sold off sharply over the following weeks and months.
Rivian Stock
The stock fell 43% in 2024 and is about 86% below its IPO price of $78. Rivian shares are currently down 16% in 2025. Since reporting Q4 earnings, Rivian stock has dropped 17% and is now below both its 200-day moving average and 50-day line. The stock hit a recent high of 16.65 on Jan. 3 but has fallen 33% since then.
Prior to earnings, Rivian stock had formed a cup-with-handle base with a traditional 16.65 buy point, the high from Jan. 3, according to MarketSurge analysis. The base dated back to July 2024 and the bulk of it has formed underneath the 200-day moving average and 50-day line, which can be a warning sign.
Rivian's chief executive also repeatedly sold shares of RIVN in 2024, according to SEC filings.
Rivian stock has a 38 Composite Rating out of 99. Additionally, the stock has a 38 Relative Strength Rating and its EPS Rating is 43 out of 99.
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